Poll Watch: Joe Biden Gets Buried In Blizzard of Bad National Polls

National polls over the last 72 hours:

NY Times: Trump 48/Biden 44
WSJ: Trump 47/ Biden 45
Fox News: Trump 49/ Biden 47
CBS: Trump 52/ Biden 48

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 3, 2024

It’s been nearly six months since Biden led Trump in the Real Clear Politics polling average

— Ryan James Girdusky (@RyanGirdusky) March 2, 2024

?? 2024 NATIONAL GE POLLING

NYT/Siena
? Trump 48% (+4)
? Biden 44%
—
CBS News
? Trump 52% (+4)
? Biden 48%
—
Fox News
? Trump 49% (+2)
? Biden 47%
—
WSJ
? Trump 47% (+2)
? Biden 45%
—
• NYT (LVs) | CBS/YouGov (LVs)
• WSJ (RVs) | Fox News (RVs) | 2/21-3/1 pic.twitter.com/PxcMQaCBmk

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) March 3, 2024

3/2/20: Biden +5.4, final Biden +4.5
3/2/16: Clinton +3.4, final Clinton +2.1
3/2/12: Obama +5.0, final Obama +3.9
3/2/08: Obama +3.9, final Obama +7.3
3/11/04 (earliest RCP avg): Bush +0.6, final Bush +2.4

Average total margin shift across 5 elections is 1.7 points https://t.co/ZI0FFt6wzl

— David Faris (@davidmfaris) March 2, 2024

It is March.

The trajectory of the presidential race hasn’t changed.

97% of Trump voters in 2020 are backing Trump in 2024. 83% of Biden voters in 2020 are backing Joe Biden in 2024. 10% of Biden 2020 voters have switched their support to Trump.

New York Times:

President Biden is struggling to overcome doubts about his leadership inside his own party and broad dissatisfaction over the nation’s direction, leaving him trailing behind Donald J. Trump just as their general-election contest is about to begin, a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College has found.

With eight months left until the November election, Mr. Biden’s 43 percent support lags behind Mr. Trump’s 48 percent in the national survey of registered voters. …

Mr. Trump’s ability to consolidate the Republican base better than Mr. Biden has unified the base of his own party shows up starkly in the current thinking of 2020 voters. Mr. Trump is winning 97 percent of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83 percent of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump. ...

Four major national polls out within the last three days all show that Trump is running away with the race. Barring some catastrophic once-in-a-century event like a global pandemic, history also shows that the polls are highly predictive of the outcome at this point.

Note: In both 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed his polls. He is currently winning the national popular vote by 2 to 4 points. He is leading in all the swing states.