The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 25 2024

Russian Parliament Decides Next Steps After Accusing Ukraine Of Shooting Down Plane With POWs

US Army Colonel Douglas McGregor: Our failures in Ukraine make us look absolutely laughable in the eyes of the rest of the world. Enough is enough. Make a peace treaty, fools!
 

Russia has won the ammunition battle in Ukraine – Business Insider

   Business Insider columnist Jake Epstein said that Russia is far ahead of Ukraine in terms of shell stockpiles and has gained the upper hand in the “battle for ammunition.”

   “It has gained the upper hand in a key battle: the battle for ammunition,” the publication said.

   According to the journalist, a “grim” situation has developed for the AFU, putting them in a very “difficult position.”

   Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said its unclear if the NATO contracts will enable the alliance to send more ammunition to Ukraine or just fill its own stockpiles — both of which are important in the long run.

   Right now, the biggest unknown is the future of US security assistance to Ukraine; additional military funding has remained held up by Congress, despite repeated pleas of urgency from the Biden administration.

Our source in the OP said that Europe is not ready to replace the United States in arms supplies to Ukraine, negotiations have been going on in recent months, but the EU countries do not have such a number of shells and missiles for air defense. The financial component is not so critical for Ukraine this year, but the problem with ammunition is already making itself felt, which is why the General Staff is forced to normalize the use of shells.

Director of the SVR Naryshkin: Today, when the West is defeated on the territory of Ukraine, the likelihood of various provocations is very high. However, I would like to emphasize that the effect of such provocations and their duration are very short-lived, especially since in our modern world any secret information, including lies, very quickly becomes apparent.
According to closed sociological polls, which are conducted in Western countries, we can see that the population of these countries is simply tired of the Ukrainian crisis. Few people believe in the possibility of defeating Russia and few see the expediency of providing simply colossal financial aid to Zelensky’s gang. And no one understands why the population of Western countries should suffer for the sake of it.
And in order to make the population of the United States and European countries think differently and realize what people are suffering for, the most common technique is used – an attempt to convince the population of their countries in the possibility of aggression from Russia.

Strikes on Kiev through the eyes of an eyewitness

My long-time subscriber recounts what yesterday’s missile attack on the capital of Nezalezhnaya looked like:

“You are absolutely correct; the reports of all the downed missiles over Kiev are false. We felt, heard, and saw the arrivals. The house shook as if in an earthquake. One impact was definitely in Pechersk, and we witnessed it.

It’s not Russian missiles that we should fear, but our air defense. Today, the ‘Patriot’ system fired from Zhulyan again. One rocket veered off course and flew low over Lipki. As it turned out, it hit the territory of the Arsenal factory’s stadium.

The primary damage stems from air defense in the city. They frequently shoot and bring down missiles directly over populated areas in the center, and then debris falls on houses…

We genuinely sympathize with the people of Donetsk; we would prefer to shift the front line away from them. It would be over for them sooner rather than later. Good luck).”
 

Poddubbny

Our source reported yesterday that the Il-76 was shot down by mobile air defense, which is not directly subordinate to Zaluzhny, and its route is kept secret in order to destroy enemy aircraft. After information appeared about the transfer of Patriot to Kramatorsk, it was decided to use it near Kupyansk, but the crew did not know about the agreed route for transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war and mistook the target for an enemy fighter.

An Il-76 near Belgorod was shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system battery, France Info states, citing a French military source.

Note that France Info is a radio network owned by the French national public television, France Télévisions.

Our source in the OP said that Andrei Ermak, through Roman Abramovich, asked the Kremlin not to publish the agreed route of movement of the Il-76. The President’s Office is ready to make concessions on gas transit for 2025-2030, as well as continue the exchange of prisoners.

Colleagues, it is now important for the Office of the President to stop the track with the Il-76 in any way, which is why negotiations are taking place at the very top, and the mediator is again the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich.
Yesterday, all LOMs received instructions from the SBU to correctly interpret the event; there was a separate conversation with Goncharenko, who was “gently” asked not to raise the topic. The track was quickly blocked within the country, and work is now underway with partners.

ZeRada

Our source confirms the information that Ukraine is ready to hand over more prisoners to the Russians at the next exchanges, taking into account the failed exchange and the bodies of the dead Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who were in the downed IL.
They will give away those whom they did not want to change and asked “more” for them.
Everyone has already admitted that there were military soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on board.
Zelensky wants to give compensation to the families in order to smooth out the tragedy and negativity due to the miscalculation with the “wandering air defense”, where the entire composition is foreign, as colleagues wrote.

Zelensky  still could not come up with any version of the downed IL-76 and promised only an “international investigation”: He called Umerov, Zaluzhny, Shaptal, Budanov and Malyuk to report on the situation with the plane and the exchange. It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of relatives and with the emotions of our society. All clear facts need to be established. As many as possible, given that the downing of the plane took place on Russian territory – beyond our control. “Facts” is the key word right now.

Former Verkhovna Rada MP Mosiychuk demands arrests of those who gave the order to shoot down Il-76: Il-76 was shot down by Ukrainian missiles. I said this at the very beginning and I will repeat it again. It is already obvious that there were most likely Ukrainian prisoners of war on board the plane. If there were agreements and an air corridor was agreed upon, arrests should immediately begin in Kiev among those who gave the command to shoot.

The Il-76 crash: operation “anticrisis” in Kiev

Yesterday, after the first joyful hysterics in the Ukrainian media about the shooting down of the Russian Il-76, there was an hours-long stupor. Representatives of the authorities in Kiev could not agree on a common position on what to do.

They understood perfectly well that these were Ukrainian missiles, and the fact that these were Western-made missiles would be established quite quickly, including with the participation of international experts. If it had been S-300 missiles, it would have been stated long ago that the Russians shot down themselves (but Kiev knows what they shot down with).

And hence the “anti-crisis” plan was activated late at night, within the framework of which Zek, in order to buy time, agreed with the opinion that an international investigation should be conducted. And he had no options left in view of the fact that Kiev’s Western “partners” insist on it, and Moscow has already made claims against them.

Meanwhile, the so-called “pro-Americans” in Kiev are demanding a lynching of the authorities (see video). And such their reaction (against the background of absolute silence in London) is very indicative and makes one think even more about the British trace in this case… 

Meanwhile, thе number of people in the Ukrainian society who began to ask uncomfortable questions to the authorities over the past 24 hours have noticeably increased….

P.S. But, it must be given credit that Britain has achieved its goal in this round. The exchanges and further the whole plan of “settlement” promoted by the Americans has been put on pause at least…

The Russian Armed Forces are advancing on Avdeevka from three sides and pushing the Ukrainian army out of fortified positions.

Moreover, as reported from the spot, Russian forces carried out a deceptive maneuver and broke through the defenses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, taking the Tsarskaya Okhota recreation center (and this position was considered key for the defense of the Ukrainian troops; it had been held since 2014). After this, the Russian Armed Forces advanced along three streets in the southeast of Avdiivka, simultaneously capturing a large number of Ukrainian military personnel. Now the Russian Armed Forces have already reached Sobornaya Street, most of Sportivnaya Street is under control, and Russian forces are also actively entering the city from the south.

As we see, Avdiivka continues to “crumble” – the defense of the city of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can fall at any moment, and there is no time to retreat to new lines. And although Zelensky and Co. had time to prevent the Russian Armed Forces from tightening this “noose,” the Ukrainian authorities followed exactly Bakhmut’s scenario, burning reserves.

As a result, the best, experienced and experienced Ukrainian fighters again died in the battles, each of whom is worth several freshly mobilized civilians who have neither military training, nor motivation, nor even the slightest idea of     combat operations.

The enemy reports that our army is preparing for a decisive blow in the Avdeevsky direction.

It is reported that there is a large concentration of reserves (personnel and equipment), which will soon launch a powerful strike and try to close the ring .
avdeevkaru

Diary of a Paratrooper  The enemy plans to create a new bridgehead in the Kherson region near Snegirevka.

 New A military transport hub at the junction of the Nikolaev and occupied parts of the Kherson regions is being created by the Kiev junta to strengthen the Kherson direction.

So, near the village of Snegirevka there is a concentration of a significant amount of enemy manpower and military equipment, in addition, large columns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are reported moving towards the city. Also residents of the village Nikolaev talk about intensive exercises of the Ukrainian army at local training grounds.

In the village itself In Snegirevka, construction equipment is confiscated from the local population for the construction of engineering structures, including bridges.

DnevnikDesantnika

Endless Fighting

Battlefield Ukraine The collapse of the Avdiivka pocket

Massive Tunnel Warfare In Southern Avdiivka

The Story of the pipeline in Avdiivka | Kharkiv situation [25 January 2024]

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (25 January 2024)

Part I

▫️ In Kupyansk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35002), units of the Zapad Group of Forces and artillery repelled four attacks of AFU 30th, 32nd, 57th mechanised brigades’ assault groups close to Makeyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic) and Sinkovka (Kharkov region).

Up to 40 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, three pick-up trucks, and two Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery systems have been eliminated.

▫️ In Krasny Liman direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35003), units of the Tsentr Group of Forces supported by artillery repelled two attacks launched by assault groups of the AFU 117th Territorial Defence Brigade close to Yampolovka (Donetsk People’s Republic) and Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

Up to 270 servicemen, two tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, eight armoured fighting vehicles, and 20 motor vehicles have been neutralised.

▫️ In Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35004), the Yug Group of Forces improved their position along the front line.

Three attacks of the AFU 22nd Mechanised Brigade’s assault groups were repelled near Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

Artillery strikes were delivered at manpower and hardware of AFU 22nd, 92nd mechanised brigades close to Krasnoye and Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy lost up to 310 servicemen, four tanks, four armoured fighting vehicles, and seven motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one U.S.-made M270 MLRS, one U.S.-made M777 artillery system, one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system, one D-20 howitzer, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, two D-30 howitzers, as well as two ammunition depots were hit.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35005), units of the Vostok Group of Forces and artillery inflicted fire damage on manpower of AFU 31st mechanised, 79th air assault brigades close to Staromayorskoye and Novomikhailovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

The enemy’s losses amounted to 130 servicemen, one tank, two infantry fighting vehicles, three motor vehicles, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one Giatsint-B howitzer, as well as one electronic warfare station.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (25 January 2024)

Part II

▫️ In Zaporozhye direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35006), units of the Russian Group of Forces supported by aviation and artillery inflicted losses on clusters of manpower and hardware of AFU 33rd, 65th mechanised, 128th mountain assault, and 112th territorial defence brigades close to Rabotino, Yurkovka, and Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region).

The AFU losses amounted to up to 130 servicemen killed and wounded, one tank, and four pick-up trucks.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one Polish-made Krab self-propelled artillery system, one Czech-made RM-70 Vampire MLRS, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one D-20 howitzer were neutralised.

▫️In Kherson direction (https://t.me/mod_russia/35006), units of the AFU 35th Marines Brigade were hit near Tyaginka (Kherson region).

The enemy lost up to 45 servicemen and three motor vehicles.

In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, one U.S.-made M777 self-propelled artillery system, and one Grad MLRS combat vehicle were hit.

▫️Operational-Tactical Aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 109 areas during the day.

Air defence forces shot down four HIMARS MLRS projectiles and one Tochka-U tactical missile during the day.

In addition, 91 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles have been destroyed near Belogorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Ploshchanka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Tokarevka, Tavolzhanka (Kharkov region), Sagi (Kherson region), Verbovoye, Ulyanovka, and Tokmak (Zaporozhye region).

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation for January 25, 2024

Intense fighting is currently underway in the southern section of the Avdeevsky fortified area. The enemy is attempting a counterattack from the Khimik microdistrict in the southern part of Avdievka. However, the Russian Armed Forces are expanding their control in the private sector and agricultural areas in the Tsar’s Hunt region.

In the Bakhmut direction, there has been a minor advance by the Russian Armed Forces in the Krasnoye area, where they have successfully taken control of several enemy strongholds.

Positional battles are occurring along the Dnieper in the Krynok region; the enemy attempted to land an assault force, but their operation was disrupted by the artillery of the Russian Armed Forces.

On the rest of the front line, there are positional battles of local significance. The situation is further complicated by weather conditions that affect the capabilities of both sides.

rybar

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of January 25

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

In the Kupyansky sector there are battles near Sinkovka and Khrakhmalny . Our fighters advanced in the direction of Ternov .

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

The Russian army advanced in the area of   Bogdanovka and Krasny . Fighting is taking place northwest of Kleshcheevka .

⚫️Donetsk direction

Encounter battles continue at Stepovoy . The Russian army advanced into the area of   the coke plant . There are battles on the south-eastern outskirts of Avdeevka – the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to push our fighters out of previously occupied positions.

⚫️Zaporozhye direction

 In the Orekhovsky sector there were oncoming battles at Rabotino . The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to advance to Verbovoy . There are no changes on the Vremevsky ledge .

Front #Summary for 25 Jan 2024 by 19:56⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, our troops are moving a little bit in #Krynki, trying to negate the AFU bridgehead. It is too early to talk about its elimination. The advance is being stopped by swarms of enemy drones flying freely. We would like to have more anti-drone guns, and to compact the electronic warfare. As for the supply of the AFU, on average, 1-2 out of 3-4 boats steadily go to the bottom.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction is awakening. Probably our forces have replaced the personnel at the positions. Ours expanded the bridgehead between #Rabotino and #Verbovye. They are levelling the front at #Novoprokopovka.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our army managed to advance north of #Novomikhaylovka. The AFU resists, suffers losses incomparable with the result, and still backs away.

🔹In #Donetsk Direction, after the legendary operation to capture the “Tsarskaya Okhota” near #Avdeyevka, our forces are advancing and have reached Grushevsky Street. Chernyshevsky Street, Sportivnaya Street, and the southern part of Sobornaya Street is also behind ours. The AFU are on Turgenev Street. In fierce battles ours are breaking through to the Railway Station 447 km and the tram ring. These areas will allow us to gain a serious foothold on the entire southwestern outskirts. If we fail to recapture this area, we will have to go on the defence and endure the growing counterattacks. The best available AFU forces have been brought in there. On the northern flank, our forces advanced in the north and centre of #Stepovoye, overcoming the AFU’s line of trenches.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our army advanced in #Bogdanovka and extended the zone of control east of #Ivanovskoye (#Krasnoye). Artillery, mortars and drones are working on positions south of the village. The AFU believe this is preparation for a large scale assault on their positions. North of #Kleshcheyevka there is positional fighting.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, in the #Seversk sector, the battle for #Belogorovka (#LPR) is ongoing. In the northern part of #Grigorovka, our forces managed to occupy the area among several branches of the #Seversky Donets River. This allowed ours to establish control over the Belogorovka reserve, an important area for further attacks. To the east of the village, our forces approached a key height, with advancement complicated by dense mines.
▪️ In the #Liman sector, there is a slow but steady advance of our troops. In the area of #Terny, ours have entered the forest area (and the fortification “Rukavitsa”). They are consolidating on a bridgehead convenient for further advance.
▪️ In the #Kupyansk sector, we marched to #Berestovoye.

💥Our geraniums and missiles hit #Odessa region, #Kremenchuk and #Kharkov. In the Ukrainian capital, administrative buildings were hit, including the Antonov Aircraft Factory.

olegtsarov

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_25.html