The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on November 08 2023

‘We Believe They Can Win Back Their Territory’: White House Answers Question On Ukraine Stalemate

Our sources from the OP said that the Office of the President conducted a closed sociology study on the attitude of Ukrainians to the replacement of the Commander-in-Chief, who spoke about the military impasse. The numbers turned out to be very bad for Bankova, 90% of Ukrainians oppose Zaluzhny’s resignation, and 60% share his opinion on the situation at the front.

Our sources from the OP said that the Office of the President temporarily abandoned the idea of   holding elections because of Zaluzhny’s position. Our source from Bankova reported that Andriy Ermak was the main opponent of the elections, since it was not possible to come to an agreement with the Commander-in-Chief, and Zelensky’s victory in one round became unlikely.

Our source reports that Bankovaya is inciting deputies and LOMs against Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny in order to remove him from office.
Now it is dangerous to dismiss him for two reasons:
1. They did not warm up public opinion regarding the case of discrediting Zaluzhny.
2. It would be very suspicious to dismiss the commander-in-chief after the “contract killing” of his assistant, which the authorities are trying to present as an accidental death due to negligence. Everyone will immediately see this as “links of one chain.”
3. This will ruin relations with the Western lobby and may become the reason why military supplies to Ukraine will be reduced (they will be cut off altogether), considering that ZeErmak is busy with political intrigues and not with war.
Plus, it will cause hundreds of publications against Zelensky in the Western press, which could further collapse their ratings and support in the West.

According to the source, Bankovaya wants to make Zaluzhny a “scapegoat” for the failure of the Zee offensive. Now they will try to artificially substitute the commander in chief.

We are watching…

Older than Edda: The biggest mistake that can be made now in relation to the Ukrainian is to start thinking about whose position in the fight between Zelensky and his military is more profitable for Russia. There are no advantageous sides for us there.

This is especially true for possible misconceptions regarding their military. Those officers who, based on their common Soviet past, might have felt sympathy for Russia, have long been out of work. The same Zaluzhny and Khorenko were formed professionally after the collapse of the USSR, with the corresponding ideological indoctrination. This is especially true for those who are younger than them in age.

The only difference is that Zelensky needs to continue the war here and now, while the military believes that they should take a break to retrain, replenish their numbers and try again.

Neither one nor the other can suit us, since we do not guarantee our safety in any of the above options.

For the West now, and first of all for the United States, it may be more profitable to temporarily freeze the conflict in order to gain time to develop its own military production. Especially taking into account Israeli needs for equipment and ammunition and the need to build up in other positions by an order of magnitude or higher. They may well not be able to do this – the United States does not want to develop a conveyor belt for hardware, their main goals for the next few years are not in Europe at all, and whether Europe itself can do this is a separate big question.

But this will not cancel our tasks in any way. At the same time, the conditional overthrow of Zelensky by his military is no better for us – the enemy will become wiser, but why do we need him so smart?

vysokygovorit

The New Tactics Of The Russian Army Made It Possible To Capture AFU’s Seven Strongholds In One Day

Battlefield Ukraine Russian High Intensity Operations and Weapons of War Overview

As disillusionment with war grows, stalemate tests Zelensky and General Zaluzhny – Washington Post

After months of heavy casualties in a largely stalled counteroffensive against Russia, tensions between Ukraine’s top leaders have boiled over awkwardly in recent days, prompting President Volodymyr Zelensky to call for an end to the political infighting.

“Everyone must now concentrate their efforts on defending the country,” Zelensky said Monday in his evening address.

“Gather your strength and do not become complacent; Don’t drown in infighting or other problems.” He warned that broken unity could have serious consequences: “The situation now is the same as before – if there is no victory, there will be no country.”

Zelensky’s call for an end to any infighting came after he got into a rare public spat with Ukraine’s armed forces commander, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, over whether the war had reached a World War I-style “stalemate,” as Zaluzhny claimed in a recent interview with the Economist. .

Zelensky then rejected these remarks at a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“Everyone is tired, and opinions are different,” Zelensky said, discussing Zaluzhny’s “stalemate” remark. He also told NBC News that he “doesn’t think this is a deadlock.” But one of the president’s aides went so far as to say on Ukrainian television that comments like Zaluzhny’s to the media “make things easier” for Russia.

Zaluzhny, a career military officer, is extremely popular in the country and is widely seen as a potential threat to Zelensky should he ever enter politics. So far the general has given no indication that he is planning such a step.

But after 20 months of all-out war, public divisions are beginning to emerge in Ukraine’s previously unshakable national unity. The issue of the stalemate is particularly sensitive as Ukrainian officials fear the perceived stalemate could mean they will be pressured into ceding territory in negotiations with Russia. The vast majority of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions.

The differences between leaders are on full display as Ukraine braces for the possibility of another harsh winter with little hope of any significant progress on the southern front. Even Zaluzhny said: “There will most likely not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

These open divisions “distract from winning the war and definitely play into the hands of the enemy,” said Alena Getmanchuk, founder and director of the New Europe Center, a think tank in Kiev.

“It all starts with… unity within Ukraine,” Getmanchuk said.

The lack of good news is dampening civilian morale as fears grow that Russia will soon resume attacks on energy infrastructure that could make life miserable during the coldest months of the year.

The pressure doesn’t just come from the battlefield. International attention has largely shifted to the war in Israel and the Gaza Strip. And in Washington, there is disagreement among lawmakers over additional aid to Ukraine.

On Monday, Zelensky publicly rejected the possibility of holding presidential elections in the spring, as is typical on Ukraine’s political calendar. Some foreign officials have called on Zelensky to continue the elections, demonstrating the country’s commitment to democracy.

Zelensky, however, said discussion of the elections was “completely irresponsible” during the war. The country is under martial law, prohibiting elections. In addition to the thousands of soldiers fighting on the front, the war has displaced millions of Ukrainians, making fair elections nearly impossible.

The truth about Ukraine “awkwardly spilled out” : Zelensky and Zaluzhny quarreled over problems at the front

The failure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ counteroffensive created tension between Ukraine’s top officials that “uncomfortably spilled over,” The Washington Post reports (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/11/08/ukraine-zelensky-zaluzhny-russia-war/) .

First, Zelensky had a fight with the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, because of his hateful column in The Economist. One of the president’s aides went so far as to accuse the general of working for the Russians. After all, because of Zaluzhny’s revelations, the West may force Kiev to abandon its claims to new Russian regions . After this, Zelensky himself called for an end to political strife. And just in case, he canceled the elections.

All this news undermines the morale of Ukrainians. As is the winter, which promises to be even harsher than the previous one . In Kiev, they believe that with the onset of cold weather, Russia will resume attacks on infrastructure. This will make life for Ukrainians “unbearable in the coldest months of the year.”

 

Medvedev: The insane European Commission, led by a raving gynecologist, is demanding that Banderkraine be accepted for preservation and that the rest of its weak allies be given a collective abortion. Cut them off from any EU subsidies, redistributing them in Kiev’s favor.
Well, and in favor of, what’s her name, Moldova or Moldavia. It is not clear where it is and who lives there, the Romanians, I think, but where to put it in such a situation. Politics above all!
It is obvious that the new proud and beautiful countries, having become micro-members of the European Union, for decades will move to direct feeding of caring moms from Germany, France and other Euro-tallies. And all those Bulgarians with the Baltics and other second-rate rabble will tighten their belts.
Of course, the young but voracious Kiev-Kishinev rickets will quickly emaciate and defat old Europe. His care will be accompanied by a total weakening of the European Union, discrediting of the euro and other nasty diseases.
Who will be left in the plus? Take three guesses…..

The situation near Avdiivka is increasingly reminiscent of what we saw in Bakhmut. As the battles approach the city itself, it obviously faces the fate of an impregnable “fortress”, the Ukrainian government is creating a new symbol, which it will hold on to with all its might and throw reserves into holding it.

Now, near Avdievka, everything is very tense for the Armed Forces of Ukraine – the Russian Armed Forces have expanded the northern front of Avdeevka’s coverage, have strengthened themselves behind the railway track, and are pressing from the south. At the same time, Avdiivka and all the flanks around it are heavily exposed to fire from all types of weapons – artillery, MLRS, FABs, which has already created a critical overstrain for the logistics support of the Ukrainian garrison in the city. And in general, the threat of losing the city is now much higher than it was a week or two ago.

That is, Avdiivka, in fact, is the same meat grinder as Bakhmut, and the Ukrainian command is again “attacking” them. As a result, elite forces who managed to avoid a counteroffensive are killed. At the same time, there is no rotation, no equipment, and Russia has concentrated large forces on Avdeevka and is tightening the “noose”. But Zelensky, increasingly losing touch with reality, still dreams of capturing Gorlovka, demanding an offensive. 

Avdiyivka The situation remains difficult. The fighting does not stop for a minute

Predictably, the enemy is trying to powerfully attack in the direction of Severny with the aim of covering the village from two sides.

But in fact, he has to storm head-on, because he constantly fails on the flanks.

Likewise, the enemy is trying to break through our defenses in the direction of Stepovoye and AKHZ.

During the week, he had little success in relation to the scale of offensive actions, advancing to 1-1.5 km, depending on the area.

At the same time, the enemy is suffering simply insane losses. And currently, the intensity of assaults is beginning to decrease because of this. But at the same time, they still keep reserves and do not introduce them into battle.

There is a kind of stalemate situation, when there is not enough military personnel and equipment, and the tasks need to be performed, and at the same time the reserves are not thrown into battle.

All this forces the enemy to make difficult decisions:

- Enter the reserves now – then they will drain faster than the tasks will be completed.

- Enter the reserves later – the operational-tactical situation will worsen, and the goal may not be achieved at all.

Time will tell what they will choose.

Meanwhile, the occupiers are storming with meat waves and firing a lot of BC, which is not exactly what this decrease in intensity is felt.

Our soldiers manage to firmly hold the defined boundaries.

Avdiyivka is Ukraine! Was, is and always will be!

The enemy must finally break his teeth against her. There is no other way.

Ukrainian Post

The Russian Armed Forces recaptured a section of the railway tracks north of Avdeevka.

DONETSK DPR NEWS NWO reports that northeast of Stepovoy, as a result of fierce battles along the railway, our fighters managed to overcome it in almost all places, occupy enemy strongholds and gain a foothold in new positions.

▪️According to reports from the field, our soldiers also managed to enter the outskirts of Petrovsky (Stepovoe), the infantry is now knocking out the enemy from there. FPV drones are actively working. The offensive of the Russian Armed Forces in this area continues.

▪️ West of the Avdeevka waste heap, attacks are being carried out in the direction of AKHZ.

▪️ Northeast of Vodyanoy, our infantry continues attacks along forest belts in the direction of Severny and Tonenky. There is also advancement!

ukraina_ru

Avdeevskoe direction at 17 ⁰⁰  Our Army is currently continuing a large-scale assault on the northern flank in the area of   the Petrovsky and Avdeevsky Coke and Chemical Plants

Fighting continues in Marinka .

The Ukrainian Armed Forces still hold the western outskirts of the former city. The positions of the Russian Armed Forces are located in the area of     Friendship Avenue and to the west. Part of the low-rise private sector development is in the gray zone.

However, fighting periodically occurs in the remaining ruins. The parties are making attempts to expand the zone of control.

In general, the situation has not changed globally over time. To effectively control Marinka’s supply routes, it is necessary to advance from the flanks and in the surrounding area.

polk105

Regarding Avdeevka The strategy of double envelopment and the formation of a proper cauldron/encirclement requires the formation of two contours: the internal and the external one.

Any breakthrough and encirclement that results in a single contour is perilous for the attacking side.

The external contour is meant to safeguard the flanks of the cauldron and the units operating against the surrounded enemy force and tasked with forcing its surrender or eliminating it.

The two maps provide a possible schematic of the double-contoured encirclement of Avdeevka. As you may note, the interior line (Vodyanoye-Tonenkoye-Orlovka-Stepovoye) passes through harder-to supply areas that are vulnerable to the Ukrainian defensive force’s artillery and to attacks from both within the bag and from without.

The exterior line (Pervomayskoye-Netailovo-Umanskoye-Semyonovka-Berdychi) would then safeguard the force dealing with Avdeevka and give it time to complete the task.

A single-contoured envelopment is fruitless, particularly when the enemy is able to bring reserves relatively easily and at least matches the attackers in numbers.

Accordingly, when the TG channels talk about “6 km remaining” to the formation of the Avdeevka cauldron, this may be quite misleading. Ideally, the formation of both contours ought to proceed in tandem. The 6km left is on the interior contour. The exterior one is much further from formation.

The situation in recent days at the junction of Zaporozhye and the DPR : The enemy is trying to snap back, while our artillery is covering his positions with dense fire

 ▪️Members of the Vostok battalion report on the situation on this section of the front over the past couple of days:
➖ “The situation has not changed. The weather has more or less improved – it’s not pouring on our heads. Our artillery has outdone itself today – we haven’t worked so hard for a long time. The enemy was sluggishly snapping – he’s protecting the ammo.”
 ➖ “Looking at the weather, you just want to say: “A storm, a storm will break out soon.” If you do something, then it’s worth doing it while the weather permits. Then, until frost, the war will turn into a positional one, regardless of politics.”

RVvoenkor

The front has begun to move, our troops are crushing the enemy along the entire front from Soledar to Kurdyumovka. Hundreds of guns are simultaneously hitting enemy positions, our assault groups and armored vehicles are moving.
In the Artyomovsk direction, our army entered Kleshcheevka, fierce battles are taking place.

Good luck brothers!

Communication on the route leaves much to be desired, reports may be issued with a time lag, we hope for your understanding. We will add information as soon as possible.

negumanitarnaya_pomosch_Z

The real defence of Ugledar is not its tall buildings or the troops and equipment already there. The real defence of Ugledar is the ability of Ukraine to supply it with relative impunity. That is why a dual assault—from the north from Maryinka, by way of Novomikhailovka, and from the south, by way of Pavlovka—is required to take Ugledar. This is exactly what the Russian Army is now attempting to do.

And no, I am not wrong at all when I say that Russia cannot level the city—I just did not go into detail in my explanation. If Ugledar was all there was—like Gaza being all there is for Israel—then yes, maybe Russia could devote all its resources to bombing the town into stone-age. Not that this would do anything useful, as you correctly point out. Look at Maryinka—the town is complete rubble, not a single building standing, and yet the Ukrainians are still holding on to some parts of it. Why? Logistics and supply lines that have not been interrupted. So, yes, you are correct with respect to rubble not being indefensible. On the contrary.
 
All that said, however, Russia has thousands of km of front lines, about 8 major geographic theatres of the conflict to deal with. And no, Russia cannot dedicate all the airforce it has to such a wasteful exercise as leveling Ugledar.

So, yes, generally, Russia has the firepower to level Ugledar—of course, without a doubt. But, no, Russia cannot level it because she cannot dedicate the necessary resources to such a wasteful exercise. Air power is required all along the front, against the nearly 900-thousand-strong Ukrainian army. There are other places that FABs are also needed.

And, by way of an aside, Ugledar provides a very good platform for mobile portable air defence positions, so there is that as well.

According to a tip from scouts on the right bank of the Kherson region in the area of   the settlement. Cossack military personnel of the Dnepr group of troops destroyed a permanent deployment point, one of the units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, where there were more than 36 militants.

HersonVestnik

Russian Defence Ministry Report on the Progress of the Special Military Operation (8 November 2023)⚡️

The RF Armed Forces continue the special military operation.

▫️In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Grouping repelled 2 assault group attacks of the 54th Mechanized Brigade near Timkovka (Kharkov reg).

▫️Troops and hardware concentration areas of the 38th Mechanized, and 68th Jaeger Brigades have been hit close to Zagoruikovka (Kharkov reg), Novogorovka, and Stelmakhovka (LPR).

▫️The enemy lost up to 30 troops, 2 AFVs, and 3 MVs.

▫️Counterbattery warfare hit 1 US M114, 1 Msta-B howitzers, 1 Gvozdika SAU, and 1 D-44 gun.

▫️In Krasny Liman direction, units of the Tsentr Group hit troops and hardware concentration areas of the 67th Mechanized, and the 125th Territorial Defence Brigades close to Yampolovka and Serebryanka (DPR).

▫️The enemy lost up to 60 troops, 2 AFVs, and 2 pickups.

▫️In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Grouping struck the 22nd, 54th, 93rd Mechanized, and 79th Air Assault Brigades close to Maryinka, Kleshcheyevka, Andreyevka, and Spornoye (DPR).

▫️The enemy lost up to 235 troops, 3 AFVs, and 4 MVs.

▫️Counterbattery warfare destroyed 1 Msta-B howitzer, 1 Gvozdika SAU, and 1 D-30 gun.

▫️In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Grouping inflicted a fire damage on troops and hardware of the 79th Airborne Assault, 58th Motorized Infantry, 105th, and 128th Territorial Defence Brigades near Novomikhaylovka, Staromayorskoye, and Urozhaynoye (DPR), and Priyutnoye (Zaporozhye reg).

▫️The enemy lost up to 145 troops, 2 AFVs, and 7 MVs.

▫️Counterbattery warfare destroyed 1 Polish Krab SAU, 1 UK FH-70, and 1 D-20 howitzers.

▫️1 ammo depot of the 127th Territorial Defence Brigade has been destroyed near Bogatyr (DPR).

▫️In Zaporozhye direction, units of the Russian Grouping repelled 3 assault group attacks of the 33rd, 65th, and 118th Mechanized Brigades near Rabotino and Novoprokopovka (Zaporozhye reg).

▫️The enemy lost up to 80 troops, 3 tanks, 5 IFVs, 3 APCs, 2 AFVs, 2 pickups, 1 M109 SAU, and 1 US M146 gun.

▫️In Kherson direction, the enemy lost up to 30 troops and 4MVs.

▫️Counterbattery warfare destroyed 1 US M777 and 1 Msta-B howitzers, as well as 1 Gvozdika SAU.

▫️Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, UAVs, Missile Troops and Artillery neutralised troops and military hardware in 134 areas.

▫️1 joint command post of the 10th Army Corps has been hit close to Volnoandreyevka (Zaporozhye reg).

▫️1  S-300 SAM radar station has been destroyed near Artsiz (Odessa reg}.

▫️Control points of the 67th Mechanized, and the 31st National Guard Brigades have been hit close to Serebryanka (DPR).

▫️Air defences shot down 5 AFU aircraft, including 1 Su-27 near Kamenka (DPR), 2 MiG-29s near Preobrazhenka (DPR), and Krivoy Rog (Dnepropetrovsk reg), and 2 Su-25s close to Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk reg), and Tokarevka (Kherson reg).

▫️11 HIMARS projectiles and 2 US JDAM guided aerial bombs have been intercepted.

▫️31 UAVs have been destroyed close to Tavolzhanka, Kotlyarovka (Kharkov reg), Nyrkovo (LPR), Novaya Kamenka, Pervomaiskoye (DPR), Tarasovka, and Samoilovka (Zaporozhye reg).

📊In total, 532 aircraft and 254 helicopters, 8,733 UAVs, 441 air defence systems, 13,266 tanks and other AFVs, 1,182 MLRS vehicles, 7,016 guns and mortars, and 15,086 special military MVs have been destroyed during the SMO.

MoD

Chronicles of the Special Military Operation for November 8, 2023

Another terrorist attack was carried out by Ukrainian special services on Russian territory. This morning in Lugansk, an explosive device detonated in the car of LPR People’s Council deputy Mikhail Filiponenko, resulting in his death at the scene. The State Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack.

The situation in the Kherson direction remains challenging. The enemy is persistently attempting to expand its bridgehead in Krynki and create new points of tension on the left bank of the Dnieper. Additionally, there is information suggesting a potential Ukrainian provocation at the Dnieper Hydroelectric Power Station and the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant.

In the Orikhiv sector, Ukrainian formations made another unsuccessful attempt to advance in the Verbovoy area. Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports indicate the Russian Armed Forces are advancing on the southern flank of Bakhmut, including near Kleshcheevka in the Soledar direction.

rybar

Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of November 8

👠The Armed Forces of Ukraine decided that it was time to put an end to Ukrainian equipment being regularly burned in Zaporozhye. Now enemy tanks are burning near Avdeevka. Our soldiers from the 1st “Slavic Brigade”, using FPV drones, calmly knock out the echelons of enemy armored vehicles approaching the city.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Bakhmutskoe (Artemovskoe) direction

 The Russian army is advancing in the area of   the Berkhov reservoir. Meanwhile, in Kleshcheevka and Andreevka, our fighters continue to push the enemy away from the railway.

⚫️Donetsk direction

 In the Avdeevsky sector, the Russian army advanced slightly at Stepnoye . There are battles near the coke plant . In addition, ours successfully counterattacked in the Vodyanoye area. No change in Marinka – assault on the western outskirts.

⚫️ Zaporozhye direction

 Our fighters counterattacked from Verbovoy . There are battles near Ugledar to the west of Nikolskoye .

👠The Kyiv regime staged a terrorist attack in Lugansk. As a result of a car explosion, Deputy of the People’s Council of the LPR Mikhail Filiponenko was killed . The terrorists from the Main Intelligence Directorate have already taken responsibility.

Front #Summary for 8 Nov 2023 by 19:03⚡️

🔹In #Kherson Direction, the AFU is gaining ground near #Peschanoye, #Podstepnoye and partially in #Krynki. The enemy clearly intends to expand the combat zone. However, the risks are still local, the AFU needs much larger forces to really threaten the land corridor to #Crimea.

🔹In #Zaporozhye Direction, all  has been stable for many weeks. The AFU attack near #Verbovoye (they want to capture the heights northwest of the village), and they try to attack near #Pyatikhatki. From #Rabotino the AFU rush to #Kopani and #Novoprokopovka, all as unsuccessfully as a fortnight ago. Our army firmly holds the lines.

🔹In #SouthDonetsk Direction, our forces slowly retake positions north of #Priyutnoye and near #Urozhaynoye. In the #Ugledar section, ours advanced slightly north of #Nikolskoye, and to the west they fight in the dacha area. At #Novomikhaylovka our army is approaching key heights. In #Maryinka without changes.

🔹In #Donetsk Direction, there are fierce flank battles at #Avdeyevka. According to the latest data, 6 km are left for connecting both flanks. in the south our forces are clearing the forest plantations after the advance at #Severnoye. From #Vodyanoye we attack towards #Tonenkoye. In the north, our forces advanced well near the railway and are expanding the bridgehead near #Krasnogorovka, approaching #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye) and #Koksokhim. The AFU command is moving its HQ to #Orlovka.

🔹In #Bakhmut Direction, our forces counterattack quite successfully. At #Kleshcheyevka we control the railway line. In the north our forces pushed the AFU from #Berkhovka to back to #Bogdanovka.

🔹In #Svatovo Direction, our army is expanding the zone of control around #Pervomayskoye. At #Kislovka, a section of the railway line to #Krakhmalnoye has been taken under control. A group reached the northern outskirts of #Sinkovka, and to the north there are advances at Liman Pervoye.

olegtsarov

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2023/11/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_8.html