The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on October 19 2023

Update on Ukraine: Huge equipment loss

Our source reports that there is a high risk of creating an “Avdeevka stranglehold” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Russians are implementing to gradually encircle the urban agglomeration and one of the most protected territories of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donbass direction.
Constant Russian aerial bombing, artillery shelling and attacks on the logistics infrastructure of Ukraine can create a shortage of equipment and manpower in this area.
Bankovaya understands that this sector is the most significant, but the transfer of large forces to this direction puts an end to any offensive operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
A difficult choice that Bankova will have to make in the near future.

We are watching…

Ukraine is experiencing tension amid “extremely fierce” fighting in Avdiivka. Thus, against the backdrop of the need to support the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the south of the country, the Ukrainian authorities completely missed Avdiivka, did not carry out a rotation and ignored the problem of ammunition shortages, despite the alarming intelligence received from there.

Meanwhile, Avdeevka, located south of battle-ravaged Bakhmut, has long been a target of Russian forces and the advance of the Russian Armed Forces in this direction has become the largest offensive operation since the beginning of full-scale military operations. Moreover, military analysts are already talking about the “Avdiivka loop” – the city is surrounded on all sides with the exception of the western side, which is why the threat of a “cauldron” for fifteen thousand Ukrainian soldiers is becoming more and more real.

And although the Ukrainian command is now trying with all its might to prevent a “cauldron” by bringing the special forces and reservists who are already running out of special forces and reservists in the country to Avdiivka, there is a threat that the city will repeat the fate of Bakhmut. And with the loss of Avdiivka, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the opportunity to put pressure on Donetsk, moreover, the front risks crumbling until the loss of the entire left bank of Ukraine. 

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky at headquarters demanded that Zaluzhny hold Avdiivka by any means. Bankova understands that we will not survive a second Bakhmut, and the loss of a strategic city could put an end to Ukraine’s demands for increased military and financial support from the West.

Battle of Avdeevka: Fighting over the mining heap situation as of 20.00 October 19, 2023

 Around the Avdeevsky fortified area, after several days of relative calm, Russian troops, after artillery preparation, resumed the assault on Ukrainian positions in several areas.

🔻On the northern flank, fighters of the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of fierce battles, were able to completely occupy the most important stronghold on the mining spoil heap. The AFU, under the cover of tank fire, retreated behind the railway track. Now the positions are being cleared.

▪️ After the initial push to Berdychi, the AFU transferred several battalions of the 31st and 110th Mechanized Brigade to strengthen the lines. This allowed the enemy to push the Russian Armed Forces towards the railway. The line of control runs along it.

🔻Also, units of the Russian army carried out an offensive in the south of Avdeevka for several days. During the attack, with the support of artillery, it was possible to advance from the Avdeevskaya ring road to the 450 km railway station.

❗️The Russian Armed Forces near Avdeevka continues in a systematic manner without drastic and hasty actions to save the lives of personnel. The enemy transferred a large number of forces and means to stabilize the front.

At the same time, rather suspicious activity of the AFU is also noted in Pervomaisky. Mechanized groups, presumably the 59th Mechanized Motorized Brigade, are being brought into the village. Judging by the movements, the AFU want to attack the Vodyane-Pesky line from the flank while the Russian Armed Forces are distracted by the offensive.

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Avdeevka direction Situation at 10:00 Moscow time

Yesterday, it was reported that a new phase of our army’s offensive would commence in the coming hours. Our information has been completely confirmed.

Today, from the early morning hours, our army has advanced to the second stage of a large-scale offensive along the entire Avdeevka direction.

Starting at 6 AM Moscow time, we have launched powerful strikes targeting the enemy’s military infrastructure in this direction. We are destroying firing positions, concentrations of enemy armored vehicles, fortifications, depots (ammunition and fuel and lubricants). Various types of weapons are in action, including heavy artillery of different calibers, multiple launch rocket systems (various modifications), and aviation (assault, tactical, and army aircraft).

At approximately 8:00 AM Moscow time, ground assaults began on both the southern and northern flanks. These assaults are progressing, and there is a clear plan to encircle this enclave.

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Kherson direction: AFU attack on Krynki situation as of 20.00 October 19, 2023

🔻Early in the morning, assault detachments of the MTR “South”, with the support of two recon groups of the 35th infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Navy, crossed the river and attacked Krynki. As a result, the Ukrainian formations managed to gain a foothold in the village and advance all the way to the road.

▪️ The enemy used very simple tactics: first, Territorial Defense units were sent into battle, which overwhelmed the Russian Armed Forces in numbers, and then the more trained special forces and marines developed their success.

▪️ After some time, Russian artillerymen and army aviation helicopters began firing at the enemy, and the infantry pushed the AFU towards the village. Now the assault groups are still holding several houses in Krynki, awaiting the arrival of reinforcements.

🔻To the west, near the railway bridge, units of the 36th Brigade Division tried to carry out rotation and evacuation all night. Due to the lack of boats, this process has been delayed (19 boats from Kherson, Sadovoy and Tyaginka were noted during the day), but the enemy presence at the bridge remains.

▪️ Along the railway crossing, the Marines equipped five strong points, and formations of the 501st separate battalion of the 36th infantry brigade were transported to Aleshkinsky Island. They were given the task of occupying and clearing Peschanivka. recon groups are actively working near the settlement under the cover of mortars and AGS crews.

▪️ The road from Aleshki to the Cossack Camps and Krynki passes through Peschanovka. If the village is captured, one of the supply routes for the Russian Armed Forces group along the Dnieper will be cut. In this situation, the AFU can gain a foothold on the Peschanivka-Krynki line, creating a springboard for an attack on Oleshky and Novaya Kakhovka. Apparently, this is exactly what the Ukrainian units are trying to achieve.

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Battlefield Ukraine Amphibious operations or False Narratives

Ukrainian Marines CROSS The Dnipro River; Operation “Dragonfly”

The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine continue to experiment with methods of landing troops on the shore, which is controlled by our forces. We already thought that it was a crazy idea for the power steering group to go out on jet skis towards the Crimea, but no.

Not long ago, the Ukrainian side apparently decided to give up on secrecy, and used a barge (damn it!) as a means of delivering personnel from Nikolaev towards the Kinburn Spit in the Kherson region for subsequent disembarkation. But something went wrong, and the barge was crammed with ATGMs, and then the artillery abandoned itself.

As a result: the landing was disrupted, the barge was hanging out at sea, permanently receiving ATGMs for two days in a row. What happened to those who were on it is not clear.

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Kherson direction

 ðŸ”´ It is reported that today the enemy’s attempts to gain a foothold and expand the bridgehead on our bank of the Dnieper in the area of   the villages of Peschany and Poima continued.

 ðŸ”´ Intense fighting is taking place in the area of   the railway bridge and Peschany. Our artillery unwinds the enemy landing force. The Aerospace Forces constantly send FABS in the direction of Berislav and the region, destroying enemy concentrations.

 ðŸ”´ The situation in the Kherson direction is getting intense.

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We want to go home: militants of the 115th Infantry Brigade refuse to follow the orders of the brigade commander

 The 115th brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been in the so-called “Kupyansky forest” near the village of Liman Pervy, Kharkov region, for more than six months. Being in forested areas significantly complicates the combat work of both sides – both for the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces.

However, every day Russian troops inflict significant damage on the militants of the 115th mechanized brigade: either aviation and artillery will work, or infantry will capture several observation posts and strongholds in surprise raids.

All this significantly reduced the moral and psychological state of the personnel, who are ready to leave their positions and run away in any clash. The long absence of rotation led to the fact that the brigade’s soldiers stopped following the instructions of their brigade commander, Colonel Alexei Konoval.

The situation began to get out of control, so the command of the Khortitsa operational-strategic group decided to urgently rotate personnel in order to avoid a riot and the escape of militants from their positions.

But! According to our information, despite instructions from above, Colonel Konoval is in no hurry to carry out the rotation. With what it can be connected? Got something to hide?

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Chronicles of the special military operation for October 19, 2023

 In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops continue the operation to cover the Avdeevsky fortified area. On the northern flank, servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces occupied a waste heap, but the enemy managed to counterattack near Berdychi and push Russian units back to the railway.

South of Avdievka, assault detachments of the Russian Armed Forces have been able to expand the zone of control near the railway line in recent days, however, the tense situation in the area remains. The Ukrainian command is transferring additional forces and preparing for counterattack attempts.

Meanwhile, in the Kherson direction, enemy saboteurs landed and attacked Krynki. They were able to gain a foothold in the village and advance all the way to the road, but after artillery and air strikes they were driven out to the northern outskirts of the village.

In the Vremyevsky and Orekhovsky sectors, the situation has not undergone significant changes: positional battles and artillery duels continue. Ukrainian formations make half-hearted attacks from time to time, all of which are successfully thwarted by artillery and small arms fire.
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Map of military operations and the situation on the fronts on the evening of October 19

🫶 Our military correspondent Maxim Dolgov returned to Marinka, where he talked with soldiers of the 150th motorized rifle brigade. Together with Commander Yantar and his soldiers, he walked through the destroyed city while enemy drones flew overhead and burnt-out Bradley infantry fighting vehicles stood in the courtyards. There, Maxim learned the story of Gypsy, a 23-year-old soldier from Krasnodar who was repeatedly wounded, but always returned to the front line. The gypsy understands that he is needed here, because he knows every centimeter in the area and feels that his contribution will bring the overall victory closer.

⚔️The situation on the fronts over the past 24 hours:

⚫️Svatovo-Kremennoe direction

 The Russian army, having approached Liman the First, continues assault operations in the Sinkovka area. In addition, ours attacked near Makeevka.

⚫️Donetsk direction

 North of Avdeevka, our fighters occupied an enemy stronghold in the waste heap area. There are oncoming battles near the railway. To the south of the city, the Russian army advanced from the ring road. In addition, ours continue to storm enemy positions on the western outskirts of Marinka and Novomikhailovka.

⚫️ Zaporozhye direction

 In the Orekhovsky sector there are oncoming battles – ours counterattacked west of Rabotino , the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked near Verbovoy and Novoprokopovka.

 ðŸ’¥The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the destruction by Russian aviation of a Ukrainian MiG-29 in the Troitsk DPR region. Meanwhile, air defense systems in the Dnepropetrovsk region shot down an Air Force Su-25 , as well as a Mi-8 over Zagryzovo , Kharkov region.

⚡️ The Russian army attacked an infrastructure facility in Pavlograd, where many important factories and enterprises for the Ukrainian Armed Forces are located. In addition, ours worked on objects 404 in the Stepovoye region, Nikolaev region, as well as in the Sumy region.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 October 2023)

▫️ In Kupyansk direction, units of the Zapad Group of Forces exploiting results of aviation strikes, artillery and heavy flamethrower systems fire repelled 11 attacks of assault detachments of the AFU 14th, 32nd, and 115th mechanised, 68th Jaeger, 95th Air Assault brigades near Sinkovka, Ivanovka, Novoyegorovka, (Kharkov region), and Makeyevka (Lugansk People’s Republic).

▫️ Operational-tactical aircraft inflicted fire damage on the enemy manpower and hardware near Nevskoye (Lugansk People’s Republic).

▫️ Up to 70 servicemen, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles were neutralised.

▫️ In counter-battery warfare, the enemy lost one Akatsiya self-propelled artillery system and one Gvozdika howitzer.

▫️ In Krasny Liman direction, coordinated actions of the Tsentr Group of Forces, as well as air strikes and artillery fire repelled six attacks launched by AFU assault groups near Chervonaya Dibrova (Lugansk People’s Republic).

◽️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 21th and 63rd mechanised brigades’ units and the 40th National Guard Regiment have been hit near Torskoye, Yampolovka, and Grigorovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ The enemy losses were over 235  servicemen killed and wounded, three armoured fighting vehicles, and three pick-up trucks.

▫️ In Donetsk direction, units of the Yug Group of Forces supported by aviation, artillery, and heavy flamethrower systems repelled an attack launched by the enemy close to Kleshcheyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ In addition, strikes were delivered at enemy manpower and hardware near Andreevka, Kurdyumovka, Yakovlevka, and Vasyukovka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ The enemy’s casualties were more than 260 servicemen killed or injured, one tank, two armoured fighting vehicles, and four motor vehicles.

▫️ In addition, two Msta-B guns, one D-20 gun, two D-30 howitzers, one Gvozdika self-propelled artillery system, and one U.S.-made M119 howitzer were hit during counter-battery warfare.

▫️ In South Donetsk direction, units of the Vostok Group of Forces, ground-attack aircraft, helicopters, and artillery inflicted losses on manpower and hardware of the AFU 72nd Mechanised and 58th Motorised Infantry Brigade near Ugledar, Novomikhailovka, and Staromayorskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ The enemy losses in this direction amounted to up to 190 servicemen, two armoured fighting vehicles, and three motor vehicles.

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation (19 October 2023)

▫️ In Zaporozhye direction, two attacks launched by assault detachments of the AFU 82nd Air Assault Brigade near Verbovoye (Zaporozhye region) were repelled by skillful actions of the Russian Group of Forces supported by air strikes and artillery fire.

▫️ Moreover, the Russian Armed Forces inflicted fire damage on manpower and hardware of the 65th Mechanised Brigade of the AFU near Rabotino (Zaporozhye region).

▫️ Up to 40 servicemen, two tanks, five armoured fighting vehicles, and two motor vehicles were neutralised.

▫️ In the course of the counter-battery warfare, one German-made Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled artillery system, one Msta-B gun, and one U.S.-made M119 howitzer were hit.

◽️ In Kherson direction, up to 40 servicemen, four motor vehicles, as well as one D-20 gun have been neutralised.

▫️ Operational-Tactical and Army aviation, unmanned aerial vehicles, and Missile Troops and Artillery of the Russian Groups of Forces have engaged AFU manpower and hardware in 154 areas during the day.

▫️ Moreover, an ammunition depot of the 110th Mechanised Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was obliterated close to Avdeyevka (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ Fighter aviation of Russian Aerospace Forces downed one MiG-29 fighter jet of Ukrainian Air Force near Troitskoye (Donetsk People’s Republic).

▫️ Russian air defence systems shot down one Su-25 ground-attack aircraft in Dnepropetrovsk and one Mi-8 helicopter of Ukrainian Air Force near Zagryzovo (Kharkov region).

▫️ Over the past 24 hours, one JDAM bomb, two S-200 converted surface-to-surface missiles, as well as 10 HIMARS MLRS projectiles have been intercepted during the day.

▫️ Moreover, 61 unmanned aerial vehicles were downed close to Olshana (Kharkov region), Yegorovka, Soledar, Lyubovka (Donetsk People’s Republic), Kremennaya, Zhitlovka (Lugansk People’s Republic), Romanovskoye, Molchansk (Zaporozhye region), Kazachyi Lageri, and Sagi (Kherson region).

Russian Defence Ministry (https://t.me/mod_russia_en)

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Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2023/10/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_19.html