Peace Plan for the Russia–Ukraine Conflict (Condensed Version)

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By Thierry Laurent Pellet

Introduction and Rationale

This document proposes a peace plan grounded in sociological, economic, and geopolitical realities. The conflict in Ukraine is characterized as a deep and irreversible division of populations, comparable to the breakup of Yugoslavia. Attempting to restore the pre-war status quo is unrealistic and risks prolonging human suffering. A durable solution requires accepting new realities on the ground, addressing unresolved issues stemming from the dissolution of the USSR, and preventing future recurrence of similar conflicts across Eastern Europe.

The absence of an inclusive European security architecture and the persistence of double standards in international relations have contributed significantly to the escalation of the conflict. Russia’s security concerns, particularly regarding NATO expansion near its borders, must be integrated into a broader and cooperative framework to ensure long-term stability on the continent.

A prerequisite for any binding agreement is the restoration of political legitimacy in Ukraine through internationally supervised elections conducted by neutral, non-aligned states under UN oversight.

A. Global and European Security Framework

A.1 Ukraine’s Status and Military Limitations

• Ukraine shall adopt permanent neutrality, constitutionally excluding NATO membership.
• Armed forces limited to a maximum of 100,000 personnel.
• Prohibition of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons development.
• No deployment of NATO forces on remaining Ukrainian territory after settlement.

A.2 Security Guarantees

• Ukraine’s security to be guaranteed by a group of non-aligned states under UN supervision.
• NATO and the United States excluded from direct security guarantees to reduce nuclear escalation risks.

A.3 De-escalation and Non-Aggression

• Progressive normalization of economic relations between Russia and European states.
• Economic cooperation used as a de-escalation incentive.
• Long-term transformation of NATO into a broader, inclusive security structure integrating Russia and Central Asian states, aimed at minimizing future nuclear confrontation.

A.4 Integrated Security Architecture

• Revival of OSCE-centered cooperation on terrorism, trafficking, and organized crime.
• Renewal and expansion of nuclear arms limitation treaties under IAEA supervision.
• Establishment of a binding non-aggression pact among Europe, Russia, and the United States.
• Individual (not collective) sanctions and prosecutions for actors who sabotage peace efforts.

A.5 Non-Interference and Oversight

• Prohibition of foreign NGO interference in sovereign states.
• Enhanced border controls to combat arms, drug, and human trafficking.
• International dialogue on military AI, drones, and autonomous systems to prevent catastrophic misuse.

B. Conflict Settlement and Territorial Arrangements

B.1 Territories and Self-Determination

• Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson to be internationally recognized as part of the Russian Federation, based on local self-determination.
• Other contested regions to hold internationally supervised referenda allowing populations to choose affiliation with Russia or Ukraine.
• Potential land swaps involving Moldova to resolve the status of Transnistria and ensure regional buffer zones.

B.2 Borders and Constitutional Adaptation

• Ukraine to amend its constitution to recognize new borders and the principle of self-determination.
• Russia to commit to respecting the newly defined borders once agreed.

B.3 Reconstruction and Compensation

• Each side responsible for reconstruction of territories under its control.
• Preferential energy pricing from Russia to Ukraine under transparent international supervision.
• Comprehensive investigations into misappropriated international aid, with recovered funds redirected to reconstruction.

C. Humanitarian, Legal, and Societal Measures

C.1 Population Movement and Amnesty

• Freedom of movement and return for civilians.
• Comprehensive prisoner exchange, excluding individuals convicted of war crimes or terrorism.

C.2 Humanitarian Support

• International humanitarian mechanism, supported by the Red Cross, to provide food, water, medical aid, and family reunification assistance.

C.3 Veterans and Civilian Support

• Long-term programs for rehabilitation, pensions, prosthetics, and psychological care for war victims and veterans.

C.4 Education and Social Reconciliation

• Education reform promoting historical integrity, tolerance, and prohibition of extremist ideology.
• Removal of symbols and glorification associated with Nazism.

C.5 Justice and Accountability

• Establishment of an international tribunal to prosecute war crimes committed since 2014.
• Jurisdiction focused on individual responsibility, not collective punishment.

C.6 Financing and Compensation

• Seizure of illicit assets linked to corruption and misappropriation.
• Creation of an internationally supervised compensation fund for victims.

D. Economic Stabilization and Cooperation

D.1 Trade and Transport

• Restoration of free movement of goods via maritime, river, rail, and air routes.
• Development of Black Sea and Eurasian trade corridors.

D.2 Energy and Infrastructure

• Secure management of nuclear facilities with guaranteed electricity supply to Ukraine at preferential rates.
• Energy cooperation to restore European competitiveness.

D.3 Sanctions and Financial Stability

• Gradual lifting of sanctions and asset freezes to restore investor confidence and global market stability.
• Protection of international financial systems from politicization.

D.4 Long-Term Cooperation

• Strategic dialogue among the United States, Russia, China, and major economies to address systemic financial risks.
• Joint investment in future energy sources and sustainable resource management.

Conclusion

This peace plan emphasizes realism, self-determination, collective security, and economic cooperation. By accepting new geopolitical realities and prioritizing humanitarian needs, it seeks to end hostilities, prevent future conflicts, and lay the foundation for a stable and inclusive European and global security order.

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