CES 2026 validates Tesla’s FSD strategy, but there’s a big lag for rivals: analyst

Longtime Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bull and New Street Research analyst Philippe Ferragu has described CES 2026 as “The Great Validation Chamber” for Tesla’s autonomous driving efforts. 

Ferragu shared his insights in a series of posts on social media platform X. 

In a thread on X, Ferragu highlighted two key events that validated Tesla’s autonomy strategy at CES 2026: Mobileye’s focus on cost-efficient L2+ hardware and NVIDIA’s “Alpamayo,” which uses artificial intelligence to accelerate the development of autonomous driving systems.

As per the analyst, however, the validation of Tesla’s strategy on autonomous driving does not mean that the industry is catching up to the electric vehicle maker. Ferragu noted that ultimately, the industry still likely has a 12-year lag against Tesla. 

“CES 2026 = The Great Validation Chamber for Tesla. The signal from Vegas is loud and clear: The industry isn’t catching up to Tesla; it is actively validating Tesla’s strategy… just with a 12-year lag. Two critical takeaways solidify our thesis:

“1) Mobileye validates the strategy but flies lower and behind. Great win for Mobileye; white flag for western OEMs, abandoning the L4 dream to standardize cost-efficient L2+ hardware. Standardizing the equivalent of HW2 (2016) for 2028 – 12 years behind.

“2) Nvidia validates the Tesla stack with ‘Alpamayo,’ pivoting Physical AI towards Reasoning – Total vindication of FSD V13/V14’s architecture. Go to market will be the issue: Nvidia provides the kitchen (chips/models), but legacy OEMs still have to cook. Good luck with that,” Ferragu wrote in his thread on X. 

Elon Musk, for his part, has responded to some of CES 2026’s developments on X. In response to comments on X about Alpamayo seemingly becoming a potential competitor to FSD, Musk stated that he is hoping Nvidia succeeds in its autonomous driving efforts. 

That being said, Musk predicted that what “they will find is that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.” He also noted that rivals systems such as Alpamayo will likely only put competitive pressure on Tesla in 5 or 6 years, or possibly even longer, considering the pace of the automotive industry as a whole. 

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