Weekly Commentary INSS uses assumed nonexistent ladder - and worse "The Day After": The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions

Weekly Commentary INSS uses assumed nonexistent ladder – and worse “The Day
After”: The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions
Dr. Aaron Lerner 12 April 2024

How did the philosopher get out of the pit?

He assumed a ladder and climbed out.

“The Day After”: The Development of the War Requires Brave Decisions
Policy Recommendation by The Institute for National Security Studies , April
12, 2024
https://www.inss.org.il/publication/the-day-after-2024/

does this and worse.

And as the top think tank in Israel, this is particularly unfortunate.

The following are excerpts with observations

Chapter 1: Strategic Framing

The Central Idea:

The rapid achievement of the goals of the war by pursuing a quick hostage
deal (while being willing to stop the war) and taking advantage of the
cessation included in such a deal for the following purposes:

…2. Delivering a massive influx of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip and
distributing it through local Fatah entities, connected to the Palestinian
Authority and supported for their protection by Arab and international
coalition forces.

[IMRA: The INSS never addresses how to avoid these various forces become
human shields for Hamas and others attacking Israel and/or preparing to
attack Israel.]

3. Implementing a ceasefire in the northern arena, which will be stipulated
in understandings regarding the withdrawal of the capabilities of the Radwan
force from the border region and effective international monitoring (with an
emphasis on the removal of infiltrating forces and anti-tank missiles).

[IMRA: The INSS fails to address the existential threat in the North - the
rockets and missiles located well beyond the "border region" which have the
potential, thanks to their large numbers and that many have guidance
systems, to overwhelm defenses of many strategic Israeli targets.

Chapter 2: "The Day After"-An Alternative to Hamas in the Framework of a New
Regional Architecture

A Renewed Palestinian Authority:
In the context of the Gaza Strip and with a long-term perspective, the
optimal solution for Israel's security is the "renewed" Palestinian
Authority, which would serve as an alternative governmental entity to Hamas.
To be recognized as "renewed," the Palestinian Authority should undergo a
process in which it fulfills the following conditions:
... 2. Cease violence, education for radicalization, and support for
families of terrorists;

[IMRA: A nonexistent ladder. Pay for slay is fundamental to the PA. At
best the money might go through a "social welfare" channel.

Chapter 5: Completing the Military Effort to Dismantle Hamas's Capabilities
... Alternative conditions for action in Rafah (When do we not have to act
there?):
1. Surrender, destruction, or exile of Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif;
2. Surrender of the Hamas battalions.
If these conditions are not met, the required operational achievements are:
1. Targeted elimination of the commanders;
2. Demolition of underground infrastructure (strategic, operational,
economic);
3. Destruction of combat infrastructure: tunnels, firing positions,
operational facilities, launching infrastructure;
4. Blockade of the Philadelphi Corridor and sealing it above and below
ground.
These objectives can be advanced through various methods, including a
different combination of ground maneuver, aerial fire, and special
operations.

...This is an important operation, albeit complex and limited, that can be
implemented in the future as well.

[IMRA: Kicking this can down the road is exactly how we got to this mess in
the first place.]

Chapter 7: Weakening Iran and the Axis of Resistance
… This security reality necessitates pushing the military capabilities of
the Radwan force away from the border and stabilizing the new situation
through a framework of understandings with the state of Lebanon, and
indirectly with Hezbollah, based on agreements that will be achieved through
American mediation and oversight.

[IMRA: Again the INSS fails to address the existential threat in the North
- the rockets and missiles located well beyond the "border region" which
have the potential, thanks to their large numbers and that many have
guidance systems, to overwhelm defenses of many strategic Israeli targets.

Chapter 8: Preserving and Strengthening the Special Relationship with the
United States

... The American government is currently focusing its efforts to promote ...
the establishment of a Palestinian state... the security and diplomatic
discourse must be enhanced through a professional, accurate, reliable, and
discreet dialogue that also addresses the government's interests and
maintains its attention
toward the security concerns and needs of the State of Israel.

[IMRA: The INSS fails to provide any operative suggestions for addressing
Israel's key challenge in dealing with the USA: they want a sovereign
Palestinian state and a sovereign Palestinian state would be an existential
threat for Israel.]
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Arab-Israeli relations

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