My dream: What IDF Spokesperson Would Say If Could

My dream: What IDF Spokesperson Would Say If Could
Dr. Aaron Lerner 25 December 2023

The following is what I sincerely believe the IDF Spokesman would say, if he
could tell the whole truth, in one of his televised daily briefings:

I have a message for the citizens watching now:

The Israeli public has taken this war, with all the pain, as brave adults.

So, this time, I will address you as the responsible, brave adults you are.

We took a calculated risk when we agreed to the first pause to gain the
release of hostages.

And a “calculated risk” doesn’t mean that we thought the pause wouldn’t
endanger soldiers, only that we weighed this risk against the national value
we place on the hostages’ release during the first pause.

We made that “calculation” in good faith, taking into account what advantage
Hamas would gain during the pause which could not be offset by upgrading on
our side during the pause.

And since I am talking to you as adults, I will share with you that we did
expect casualties to increase because of the pause.

But the ministers decided that it was worth the expected sacrifice.

After the fact, it turns out that the calculation didn’t account for some
very important factors and that, as a result, the cost of the pause was
magnitudes higher.

But this was not intentional.

We thought that when Hamas prepared for October 7th, they also prepared
tactics and paraphernalia specifically for the Israeli invasion which would
follow October 7th.

But it turns out that Hamas wasn’t ready.

As a result, it was only during the pause that Hamas was able to share with
their forces much of the enhanced tactics and equipment they needed for
dealing with the Israeli invasion.

That is why the use of recordings, dolls, old people and others approaching
soldiers with remote control suicide belts, and many of the other tricks
Hamas is using to kill and wound our troops became a common feature of the
war only after the pause.

I am a soldier, not a minister.

I am not claiming that a more accurate “calculation” would have meant a
different decision.

I am just being honest with you.

Will the “calculations” be more accurate the next time around?

Probably.

But there will certainly be risks.

And most certainly there will be more casualties if there is a pause.

That’s a decision for the ministers to make.

And since we are already talking openly, I want to give you an important
heads-up:

If and when the day comes that we are engaged in a full-blown battle with
Hezbollah, you will not enjoy the protection of Iron Dome.

There are just too many long-range and mid-range rockets and missiles to
intercept before the IDF takes them out.

We are going to have to limit ourselves to protecting a limited number of
strategic sites.

I am saying this based on what we know.

And we’ve learned a very painful lesson that there was a lot we didn’t know
about in the Gaza Strip.

The same may apply to Lebanon.

As Donald Rumsfeld put it: “There are known knowns. These are things we know
that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things
that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are
things we don’t know we don’t know.”
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