Defunding Escalations

A Turret from a Tank in Ukraine rests in the soil after a likely catastrophic explosion in the hull and ejection of the turret some distance from the wreck. Tank numbers declined greatly since 2022.

The tactical engineering of a new energy based sanctions regime has rapidly weakened the adversaries of the West in recent weeks. The placing of Venezuela’s oil and gas into the realm of Western control has enabled large shifts in policy that has had a great impact on not only Latin America, but also in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and even in North America itself.

The United States has finally placed the importance of trade and security relations with India at the forefront of the West’s foreign policy initiatives. India’s natural state has always been toward a Western democratic orientation, a position that has been ignored by their natural allies in the West since shortly after the Second World War. India as a major non-aligned nation has always has a tremendous amount of leverage in their region, but were neglected by Western military support for the last 70 years. Military support for India’s adversaries over that time lead India toward sourcing defense equipment from the Soviet Union, Russia, and France while becoming one the largest economies in the world with what will be the largest population in a few years time, all existing under a democratic system. India will be the key to peace and influence in Asia over the next 10 years and beyond, from the Caspian to the Pacific, India is the most important future ally of the West.

The offer of Venezuelan and other oil and gas to India in order to displace Russian oil in their economy is one of the truly concrete steps required towards ending the war in Ukraine. The removal of tariffs, expansion of Western arms sales, and a boost to trade and economic ties by linking Indian interests to the West is how you sufficiently increase the pressure to end the war in Ukraine, and curb the likelihood or conflict in other regions. While European allies of Ukraine made ways to purchase Russian oil since 2022 while claiming crippling sanctions on Russia, India took to openly purchasing low cost oil and gas from Russia in order to benefit their own economy and keep India strong against adversaries in the region. Since India largely depends on Russian weapons systems, even manufacturing much of it inside of India itself, India’s best interests did not always lay with the West, but in defending itself from Pakistan and China and protecting its own territory and citizens. India would never end the purchase of low cost energy, as India is responsible to its own economy and people, needing a good alternative with secure benefits to change their policy. Placing India under the West’s energy umbrella can end the war in Ukraine by choking off funds to Russia, a sanction that will have a real effect on tank production for the Russian Armed Forces in a region where most of their military vehicles have already been destroyed.

India was always key to Russia and Iran as Russia relies on India’s economy for its exports. To reach India, the route from Russia through the Caspian Sea and onwards through Iran and to the sea towards India kept both Russia and Iran’s economy buoyant with a huge Indian market available for their products. Displacing this trade rapidly, along with India’s energy needs, both removes large source of revenue that funds Russia’s war and cuts funding Russia has in supporting Iran’s regime. Terror weapons like drones that murder Ukrainians are meant to have the effect that Iran’s regime has on its own people, removing pure terror threats from the world while benefitting India against their own threats is what the world needed since 2022, and the people of Iran needed since 1979.

With the energy supply changing regimes in Venezuela, Cuba and Iran, the focus on limiting China from erupting into conflict with India and Taiwan will become the main policy goal over the next decade. Relations with Saudi Arabia and Gulf Oil states, along with a reliable supply of Venezuelan oil, may lead China to tie itself further towards Western interests and keep their trade based economy running, a great alternative to keeping Taiwan as a target of interest for the ruling party elites. Managing India-China relations while China is descending and India is ascending will force other world powers to take a side when conflicts ignite, managing outbreaks between India, China and China’s allies when they will surely erupt. The slow and methodical challenge to China’s influence may gain greater scrutiny as labs and agents pop up in the West and the US and US allies are challenged into full support.

Past actions from US allies in enabling the funding of Russia’s military by the non-displacement of oil sales may have been the norm under the last US administration, but should be considered as a violation of NATO support in 2026. Ignoring terror incidents against Western citizens, enabling threats and corruption by Russia, China and Iran over Western democracies, and ignoring security obligations that affect their Western citizens and those of their allies should lead to an immediate change in Government, or expulsion from the G7. If a Western nation under NATO, the G7 or simply on the border of the United States or Europe excuses obligations with claims of lack of funds, lack of seriousness, or openly engages violent entities against the West, the information and options should be presented to their citizens so a democratic solution can be made. If a Western nation wishes to be the conduit for illicit funds, Iranian regime agents, and China’s one party state influence in their streets, they are welcome to elect to become the next Venezuela. Refusing help to allies and ignoring their own border threats is encouraging a dangerous fantasy that can only exist in a vacuum of rights and open speech. Forcing a stark choice in support of the West may be the only way their oil would get to market, as to date that strategic asset was always present and never utilised as a means to end the War in Ukraine until the recent tariffs on purchasers of Russian energy. The solution to funding Russia’s war resides in energy exports, the war could have ended years prior if the current policy came to be in 2023.