Trump, Baku and the Middle East

The newly reinstated President of the United States, having returned to the White House and the Oval Office, has quickly managed to initiate a range of diplomatic processes that once seemed like distant fantasies. Even more remarkably, he is already beginning to reap the rewards of these efforts in a surprisingly short amount of time.

Donald Trump has resumed the presidency during a time when the world is engulfed in a storm of violence, hatred, and chaos. A prolonged war between Ukraine and Russia has triggered numerous global crises, as both countries are major wheat exporters vital to international food supply chains. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas is reshaping the entire Middle East landscape, robbing the region’s residents of peace and stability. Beyond the war itself, the issue of Israeli hostages held by Hamas in Gaza has had global repercussions, as many of the hostages also hold dual citizenships—Argentinian, French, and American among them.

On top of that, Syria’s regime has collapsed, Lebanon has appointed a new president after a long power vacuum, and China continues to grow stronger economically. Despite this complex global reality, Trump has not been deterred. Instead, he has chosen to tackle these challenges through the method he knows best: advancing mutual interests- in a word, business.

During a recent speech in Saudi Arabia, Trump declared that the decisions he has made and the actions he has taken in his first four months in office surpass the accomplishments of previous presidents over the past eight years. And frankly, he’s not wrong. It appears Trump has made a conscious decision to stop observing global problems from a distance and instead begin seeking fast, practical solutions.

Moreover, Trump has shifted the American approach to international conflicts—moving away from forceful intervention and one-sided involvement, and toward genuine dialogue and strategic negotiation. In his speech, he praised a “new generation of leaders” in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Muscat, saying they are “transcending the ancient conflicts of tired divisions of the past and forging a future where the Middle East is defined by commerce, not chaos; where it exports technology, not terrorism; and where people of different nations, religions and creeds are building cities together, not bombing each other out of existence.”

Trump emphasized that this new era in the Middle East was not brought about by Western interference, but by the efforts of local Arab leaders themselves—who followed their own vision in pursuit of their goals. He argued that past Western involvement in the region often did more harm than good, drawing a direct comparison between President Biden’s administration and the colonial powers of Britain and France in the early 20th century, who carved up the Middle East according to their own interests. Trump accused Biden and his team of making misguided decisions and arbitrarily favoring certain nations over others.

He concluded his remarks to the Arab leaders by praising their cultural resilience, stating: “You achieved a modern miracle the Arabian way, that’s a good way.”

In Azerbaijan, many who heard Trump’s speech in Saudi Arabia couldn’t help but notice the parallels he drew between the Biden administration and how Azerbaijan felt it was treated under Biden’s leadership. Azerbaijanis perceived themselves as second-class in the eyes of key international powers, believing other countries received preferential treatment. Many in the country recall the words of President Ilham Aliyev just a month earlier: “Those who smiled at us were in fact trying to stab us in the back,” referencing the alleged channeling of funds into Azerbaijan to support groups working to overthrow the government.

Aliyev claimed that “such notorious institutions like the National Democratic Institute (NDI) were actually plotting a coup d’état here.” He continued, “We traced more than 1 million US dollars from a bank account, which was cashed out, and then we found part of that money in rented apartments of opposition activists, together with Molotov cocktails and instructions on how to attack government buildings, how to attack policemen. So, we experienced all of that. The attempts of an Orange Revolution here in 2005 were inspired by the U.S. State Department.”

According to Aliyev, during Biden’s tenure, Azerbaijan was the target of many false rumors, which suddenly stopped once the Democrats left office. Regarding this, he remarked: “We knew that the source of these articles was the State Department.”

In conclusion, Trump’s return to the White House offers hope for a better future—especially for the Middle East and Azerbaijan. It’s hard not to suspect that the Biden administration had ulterior motives for withholding cooperation with Azerbaijan and repeatedly undermining it. After all, how else can one explain the dramatic shift in the U.S. approach within just a few months? All we can do now is hope that Trump- “the gift that keeps on giving”—will continue supporting Azerbaijan and other countries in the region toward a future of peace, prosperity, and strong economies.