The New Measure

India’s French Made Rafale is one of the most advanced fighter jets in their region.

The recent bouts of battles between India and Pakistan comes at a time where many other parts of the world are in conflict, and many suspect that conflict will extend East towards Asia. While it is difficult to get precise information on details of the active battlefield between the two countries, the defense establishment in many parts of the world are watching with great interest on the developments of their systems in actual combat.

India’s and Pakistan’s Air Forces are an interesting mix of different planes and systems from various parts of the world. Pakistan uses US military equipment like the F-16, and is heavily invested with China in developing many weapons systems against Indian interests. China and Pakistan’s joint fighter program of the JF-17 has likely seen combat in the latest row with India, a program meant to solidify both Pakistan’s and China’s combined security push against India. While other weapons systems have followed this joint program, they are usually based around ground vehicles and tanks, with the JF-17 being a jointly produced and advanced small fighter plane.

What has been the focus of a great deal of interest is the use of the Chinese made J-10 fighter jet by Pakistan. The J-10 is one of the more advanced Chinese fighter jets in the region, albeit one that never had been used in actual combat. Paired with the J-10 is the new long range PL-15 missile, a modern system that can theoretically out range most similar NATO missiles. Claims that the J-10 had been very successful in countering advanced Indian Air Force fighters often come with the claim that long range PL-15 missiles played a major role in their success.

India’s Air Force has one of the most diverse and capable fleets in the region. India’s close ties with Soviet and Russian technology has equipped India with some of the most advanced Russian technology, despite India being a strong Western ally. Often produced via license in India, systems like the T-90 tank and SU-30 keep India supplied with advanced weapons systems. The purchase of French aircraft like the Mirage 2000 and Rafale give India some of the most capable technology worldwide in securing their territory.

Claims that a J-10 shot down at least one Rafale is one of the most notable claims made during the start of the war, with both sides trying to demonstrate their strengths using the narrative of the lost or survived Rafale. In reality, new technology battles involve long range targeting of enemy aircraft using BVR, Beyond Visual Range radars and missiles. Evading new missile technology is difficult for any aircraft that can be picked up on long range radar, and it could be the case that the side with the most missiles will often dominate the airspace. The point of interest from NATO allies seems to be whether or not the French Mirage 2000 and Rafale has a radar and missile combination that can best China’s new J-10 with the PL-15 missile, or if China’s new weapons are as advanced and as capable as they claim them to be?

China’s weapons programs often came with licensing and taken Western and Soviet technologies that were seen as technologically behind those of their counterparts. Many Chinese weapons systems were officially licensed from France, like their HQ-7 Crotale missile system, or taken from Russian samples like China’s J-11 fighter, a copy of Russia’s SU-27. Even recent Chinese made fighters like the J-10 often depended on Russian made engines and equipment, limiting China’s ability to sell its equipment abroad due to Russian licensing controls on weapon parts. With the J-10 demonstrating any victory over their Western or Russian counterparts, China would be able to finally develop its foreign weapons sales past its traditional allies and establish a serious international presence outside of its region.

The air battles between India and Pakistan were different than air to air conflict in Ukraine as much of the Russian and Ukrainian long range fighter systems have been grounded, or dedicated to launching long range air to surface munitions as opposed to engaging other enemy aircraft. With the F-16 and now Mirage 2000 being present in Ukraine, it is still difficult to see how successful they would be against Russia’s air force in direct combat. The reality of the air war in Ukraine is that both Ukraine and Russia have flooded the airspace with advanced anti-aircraft systems and radars, and flying too far into the combat zone would guarantee being targeted. While India is covered by S-400 systems, and Pakistan is using an S-300 copy/licensed HQ-9 Chinese system, their air war looks a lot more like ones from years ago when anti-air systems were not as deadly as they are post-2020. The interest in the advancement of China’s technology will play into battle simulations as the long range missile and radar is the king of air combat, and will determine whether or not an attack is viable.