Testing the Waters in Rougher Seas

S-300V version Air Defence Vehicles shown after being eliminated by a strike.

Recently, Chinese and Philippine naval encounters have resulted in Chinese vessels ramming Philippine vessels in the waters between the two nations. The Philippines has always been one of the United States’ closest allies, and have always had a tight security arrangement with the United States. With wars already ranging in Europe and the Middle East, the last shoe to drop was always whether China would activate their forces regarding Taiwan, or if China would choose to avoid a conflict that had little practical benefit to them and their position in the world.

The events between the two nations is not simply a territorial spat, but involves all of the larger powers in the region and abroad, as it was influenced by actions abroad. Non-lethal assaults on a US ally by China may be a response to the US focusing diplomatically on China’s sale of non-military equipment to Russia that is likely being used in the production of Russian military equipment. While US allies and China could likely eliminate this tension by simply opening up sales of such affordable equipment toward the efforts to help Ukraine, this has not become an option to date. Actions by China likely surround a strategy to test the United States’ will power in helping its allies in foreign conflicts abroad. This ever present reality comes as the US Administration waffles in helping even their own citizens being held hostage while passively punishing the only forces equipped to ensure their freedom. If Americans will not even take direct actions to help their own people in dire straits, the opportunity to permanently damage the United States and their allies encourages the worst responses as a narrative, in political dealings and physically by way of open conflict. When the United States ignores their own citizens being tortured, it in effect dehumanizes them and shows to the world that human rights is no longer a core Western value. If some citizens simply don’t count, than all citizens are a target. While diplomacy always requires an outstretched arm, that arm must be always be connected to a strong hand.

While US allies do possess the strength to alter the political landscape abroad to their benefit and that of the US, the full weight of US power needs to be used in addressing conflicts so they do not escalate further. The deployment of US Naval assets in the Middle East recently likely is tamping down a larger military response in the region, but the lack of application to threats and open harm to the US and their allies has already lead to more losses in the conflict, ones that threaten to push conflicts into a more severe level. Support for Ukrainian forces entering Russia proper has been a bold show of strength, but it must be managed purposefully as a small incident in that operation could become the catalyst for an overwhelming response between nuclear powers. The lack of action against Russia’s external military support when many innocent lives of allies are being put in danger and American lives are being threatened internally is the driving factor behind China’s actions, and should be the most serious issue in the upcoming election as it will affect every since family for generations to come.

Live fire combat against defensive missile systems in Syria, and then in Russia/Ukraine has taught the US and its allies of the true capabilities of S-400 and other Russian air defense systems. Effectiveness of air defense systems against attacking missile systems is a key bit of information used by the US and China in measuring who would sustain the most losses in open conflict on the coast near Taiwan. While China’s Russian made TOR, S-300 and S-400 systems would perform well, it is now known how to defeat them during an assault. China’s large HQ-9 missile defense force along with other types would only be able to sustain a Chinese invasion of Taiwan if they could shield PLA forces from the many advance SM missiles of the US Navy, a task that is likely not possible in a wholly effective manner. The best defense therefore is a good offense, and that offense can only be successful by making their adversary weak from within before any open conflict can have a chance to be conducted. Every single conflict in the modern era begins with that one truth.