Examining the latest K-12 public school enrollment data and trends

The latest federal data paint a bleak picture of public school enrollment trends. 

Research by Stanford University’s Thomas Dee shows declining birth rates, domestic migration, and more families choosing private schools and homeschooling during and after the COVID-19 pandemic school closures are all factors in declining public school enrollment. 

However, enrollment trends vary across states. Some major school districts and states saw student numbers drop even before the pandemic. To put the public school enrollment figures into perspective, it is useful to examine state-level and longitudinal data reported by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). 

Here are five key takeaways from the data and interactive tools to explore other key trends. 

1. Public school enrollment has fallen by 1.28 million students since the start of COVID-19. 

In the U.S., the COVID-19 pandemic is viewed as starting in February or March 2020. Between the 2020 and 2024 fiscal years (FY), public school enrollment fell by 1.28 million students or 2.5%. 

States such as New York, California, Mississippi, and West Virginia all lost more than 5% of their students during that period.

Only nine states saw growth in public school enrollment during that time. In fact, North Dakota is the only state with public school enrollment gains over 2% from the pre-pandemic year. 

In comparison, in the four years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, public school enrollment increased in 31 states, with sharp increases in North Dakota (6.9% enrollment growth), Idaho (6.4%), Nevada (6.3%), Utah (5.7%), and Washington (5.1%). Chart 1 shows public school enrollment trends between the 2012 and 2024 fiscal years, according to NCES data.

Chart 1: Public school enrollment trends (FY 2012 to FY 2024)

2. The short-term public school enrollment recovery after the pandemic in 2022 and 2023 appears to be over. 

In the 2022 and 2023 fiscal years, the nation’s public schools recouped some of their pandemic enrollment losses with slight increases each year over FY 2021 levels, when enrollment was at its post-pandemic low point.

However, the latest National Center for Education Statistics data signals that any hope of further year-over-year enrollment gains might be over. In the 2024 fiscal year, nationwide, public schools lost over 102,000 students compared to the number of students in 2023, with 39 states experiencing a decrease in enrollment, according to NCES data. 

The states with the largest public school enrollment declines from 2023 to 2024 included West Virginia (-1.7% enrollment decline), Arkansas (-1.7%), and Wyoming (-1.5%).

Among the 11 states that increased public school enrollment in FY 2024, the states with the largest gains included New Jersey (0.6% enrollment growth), South Carolina (0.6%), and North Dakota (0.4%). 

3. Public school enrollment was inching upward before COVID-19.  

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, public school enrollment increased by 1.3 million students, or 2.6%, from 2012 to 2020. During this time, the majority of states experienced an increase in public school enrollment, with North Dakota (19%), Utah (14.3%), and Nevada (13%) seeing the most significant increases. 

U.S. public school enrollment started to flatten somewhat in the years immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, but 32 states still had an increase in public school students between 2019 and 2020. 

4. COVID-19 aggravated existing enrollment loss trends in some states while reversing growth trends in others. 

For some states, the pandemic aggravated existing declines in public school enrollment. From the 2012 to 2020 fiscal years, states like New Hampshire (-7.6% drop in enrollment), West Virginia (-6.9%), and Illinois (-6.7%) lost considerable percentages of their public school student populations.

Other states saw the pandemic stop and reverse their enrollment trends. For example, Oregon saw a 7.5% increase in public school enrollment between FY 2012 and FY 2020 but a 6.2% enrollment loss between FY 2020 and FY 2024. 

Washington experienced a similar trend, with 9.2% enrollment growth from 2012 to 2020 and a 4.2% enrollment loss during and after the pandemic. Other states like New York (-0.4%), California (-0.6%), and Massachusetts (0.6%) had relatively flat enrollment changes pre-pandemic that turned sharply downward after FY 2020. Chart 2 compares pre-pandemic and post-pandemic trends in public school enrollment, based on NCES data

Chart 2: Changes in each state’s public school enrollment from 2012 to 2024

5. Public school enrollment declines are expected to continue for years. 

The National Center for Education Statistics projects that public school enrollment will decline to 46.9 million students by the 2032 fiscal year, representing a 5.3% decrease from 2024.  

States such as Hawaii, California, Mississippi, New Mexico, and New York are forecasted to lose over 12% of their public school students during this time, with only 13 states projected to increase the number of students.  

Conclusion 

Nationwide, public school enrollment has decreased by over one million students since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. This significant drop reversed the modest growth observed in the years leading up to the pandemic. Local context is essential. Not all states experienced declines after the pandemic, while some states faced enrollment decreases that had started well before the pandemic. 

As public schools become increasingly underutilized and school districts face mounting cost pressures, state and local policymakers must adjust to current enrollment and the forecasts of fewer students in the decade ahead. Public school enrollment trends will impact state and local budgets, bond elections, and teacher pension liabilities that policymakers must grapple with.

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Source: https://reason.org/commentary/latest-k-12-public-school-enrollment-data-trends/