Chronic Absenteeism Hasn't Gone Away After Lockdowns. Research Shows Poor Kids Are Hurt Most.

Chronic absenteeism has long been cited as one of the most severe lasting impacts of COVID-era school shutdowns. New research indicates that the problem is sticking around for groups of students already facing significant disadvantages.

“The income gap really was the main driver that showed up over and over again,” said University of Southern California (USC) education professor Morgan Polikoff during a presentation of his research at an American Enterprise Institute (AEI) event last week. “The fact that student-level income is the main driver here seems to be really important.”

Chronic absenteeism—often defined as when a student is absent for more than 10 percent of the school year—skyrocketed during the pandemic. According to AEI’s absenteeism tracker, by 2022, national chronic absenteeism increased by 89 percent when compared to three years prior. While absenteeism has declined from its 2022 peak in most states that report such data, 2024 figures show it remains higher than pre-pandemic levels. Absolute rates of absenteeism varied broadly state by state. In Alabama, students had the lowest rate, peaking at 18 percent in 2022 and falling to 15 percent in 2024. By contrast, nearly half of all students in Washington, D.C., were chronically absent in 2022, dropping to a still-staggering 40 percent in 2024. 

According to Polikoff’s research, low-income students in particular are facing persistent increases in absenteeism when compared to pre-pandemic numbers. Polikoff looked at school absenteeism data from North Carolina and Virginia. He explained that, when comparing absenteeism from before and after the pandemic, the attendance gap between low-income and non-low-income students grew dramatically. Post-pandemic, Virginia low-income students were 12.1 percentage points more likely to be chronically absent than other students, and in North Carolina, these students were 14.4 percentage points more likely to be chronically absent. 

Polikoff noted that the gap between different racial groups was relatively minor after controlling for income. “When looking in absolute terms, the most disadvantaged groups are typically more likely to have seen larger increases in chronic absenteeism,” he said. “Racial gaps are not overly large, controlling for income and other things.

How exactly to reverse these trends has long puzzled education professionals. School districts have tried everything from home visits to free ice cream and gift cards, yet the problem remains persistent.

“[Absenteeism is] what the corona did,” a 21-year-old told ProPublica reporter Alec MacGillis in a story co-published with The New Yorker last year. “They’re sending the kids back to school, and they don’t want to no more. They want to stay home and play on their computers.”

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