Funding Education Opportunity: How the 2024 elections affected the K-12 reform landscape

Good morning,

Voters approved seven of the 12 education-related statewide ballot measures during the November elections. They approved several education funding measures, rejected school choice policies, and split on governance-related initiatives.   

Table 1: Status of 2024 Education-related Ballot Measures in States

All school choice-related ballot measures failed.

With seeming momentum at the state level, these school choice losses may seem counterintuitive, especially since voters in multiple states elected candidates expected to pursue school choice policies. For instance, after primarying and opposing members of their party who previously opposed school choice, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee strengthened their pro-school choice legislative coalitions and have said school choice proposals will be priorities in 2025.

As to why voters rejected school choice, Cato Institute’s Neal McCluskey told Reason magazine that  “referenda for school choice are always at a disadvantage because you’re trying to take on entrenched, easily organized interests who defend the status quo and they can put a lot of money into defending the status quo and a lot of boots on the ground.”

In Kentucky, voters rejected Amendment 2, a constitutional amendment that would have let the legislature fund K-12 students outside of traditional public schools. According to the Courier Journal, only 35% of voters supported the amendment. Kentucky has no charter schools, and its open enrollment law is weak.

Similarly, almost 57% of Nebraska voters supported a referendum that struck down the state’s private school scholarship program, passed in 2023 but never implemented. Like Kentucky, Nebraska is one of the few states with no charter schools. While the state has a good open enrollment law, its strength is due to recent improvements during the 2024 legislative session.

In Colorado, by contrast, Amendment 80 fell short of voter approval. Theoretically, the higher support in Colorado than places like Kentucky could be because 334,000 students used public school choice, such as charter schools or open enrollment, during the 2023-24 school year, making voters more friendly to and familiar with school choice.

Yet, EdChoice’s Mike McShane argued the reason Colorado’s ballot measure failed was because it “fell victim to unclear ballot language, poor coalition management, and a lack of a clear ‘why.’” The purpose of provisions about school quality was unclear, leading many charter schools to take no position on the amendment and the Christian Home Educators of Colorado to oppose it. 

While it is disappointing these school choice ballot measures lost, school choice is still positioned to make significant gains in state legislatures in 2025.

Six of these 11 governor-elects have publicly supported robust private school policies, and seven fully support public school choice. 

Table 2: Support for Robust School Choice Reforms Among 2024 Governor-Elects 

Policymakers in states where governors are friendly to school choice should establish private school scholarship programs or strengthen existing ones, such as those in Indiana, Montana, and Utah.

For example, Texas’ Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said, “School choice is my top policy priority.” Additionally, “[Gov. Greg] Abbott said there are now more than enough votes to pass school choice in Texas,” Fox26 reported. 

Similarly, in Tennessee, the majority leaders in both chambers introduced a proposal that would give private school scholarships, valued at more than $7,000 each, to more than 20,000 students. 

At the same time, policymakers should codify strong open enrollment laws that let students attend traditional public schools other than their assigned ones with open seats. 

Most states that elected governors this month have weak open enrollment laws and received grades of ‘C’ or worse based on Reason Foundation’s 2024 open enrollment best practices. Open enrollment allows students to transfer to public schools with open seats. 

For example, Indiana’s and Missouri’s open enrollment laws received grades of ‘F’ on Reason’s scoresheet. Both states could significantly improve their open enrollment policies by ensuring students can transfer to any school with open seats in their grade levels.

Additionally, open enrollment can succeed in blue states, as evidenced by the strong policies in Colorado and Delaware. Accordingly, policymakers shouldn’t miss a chance to partner with governors, such as Colorado Gov. Jared Polis or Vermont Gov. Phil Scott, who are open to further strengthening open enrollment options for students.

In particular, the six states with newly divided governments, such as Michigan or Minnesota, give state policymakers a chance to introduce bipartisan proposals that appeal to conservatives and liberals and are popular with voters.

In 2025, policymakers should strengthen school choice policies so children can attend schools that are the right fit.

From the States

In other important education and school choice developments across the country, Texas and Tennessee policymakers identified school choice proposals as priorities for the 2025 legislative sessions.

As mentioned, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott primaried and campaigned against fellow Republicans who had opposed school choice and strengthened his coalition as “26 pro-school choice Republicans were voted into the Texas House, resulting in a net gain of two Republicans in the lower chamber,” The Texan’s Cameron Abrams reported. Abbott said, “With last night’s election results, Texas will finally be able to provide school choice for every Texan.” Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who presides over the Texas Senate, issued a statement “naming school choice Senate Bill 2” and urged Gov. Abbott to declare school choice an emergency for the 2025 session.

With the support of Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, the House and Senate majority leaders introduced identical proposals that would provide private school scholarships to 20,000 students. The scholarships, valued at more than $7,000 each, could pay for tuition at state-accredited private schools. The proposal would also provide a one-time bonus of $2,000 for all public school teachers.

What to Watch

North Carolina policymakers may push through a school choice proposal before the end of the year.

After losing their supermajority, North Carolina Republicans may try to pass a private school choice proposal before existing members’ terms expire in January. GOP leadership would aim to override Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto and codify House Bill 10, providing private school scholarships to 55,000 students waitlisted from the program. Gov. Cooper claimed the bill would be “devastating for education across the board.”

The Latest from Reason Foundation

–Grading every state’s public school open enrollment laws at Reason Foundation

Reason Foundation released its latest open enrollment rankings and best practices, including letter grades for each state’s open enrollment laws. Oklahoma has the best open enrollment policies, and four other states received ‘A’ grades. Many states, however, still have much work to do— 33 states received grades of ‘F.’

–California’s open enrollment laws have room for improvement at The Orange County Register

Gov. Gavin Newsom recently made California’s District of Choice cross-district open enrollment program permanent. However, California policymakers can do more to expand open enrollment and strengthen their laws. California currently scores a ‘D-” on Reason’s scorecard.

Virginia’s K-12 funding system needs an overhaul, not tweaks at Reason Foundation

“Virginia continues to fund its public schools using its outdated Standards of Quality (SOQ) formula that was developed in the 1970s. This system is non-transparent, inflexible, and unfair. The state can do better by its students, but that requires ripping off the band-aid and pursuing a comprehensive school finance overhaul.”

Recommended reading 

What’s Ahead for Colleges, School Choice, and the Department of Education?
Frederick Hess, director of education policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, at Education Next

“So, what will get done? The likeliest scenario is a substantial tax-credit program (presumably along the lines of the Educational Choice for Children Act) getting folded into next year’s extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The program would allow donors to deduct contributions to scholarship organizations from their federal taxes. A bill which included something like a $5 billion tax credit would be small beans in terms of the budget impact but represent a major win for school choice.”

Study: Charters Hastened Catholic School Decline. Will ESAs Slow the Process?
Kevin Mahnken at The74

“Between 1998 and 2020, an average of 3.5 percent of students left their Catholic school within two years of a charter opening nearby, according to the paper’s authors. As the number of families transfering to charters grew, the Catholic establishments became significantly more likely to close.”

Public Schooling Culture War Appears to Be Cooling—Why?
Neal McCluskey at Cato Institute

“There is a clear leap in battles in 2021, after lulls in a generally upward trend between 2012 to 2018. We reached new records in 2021, 2022, and 2023. But the 2024 bar—a projection for the entire year based on our current pace—is well below 2023. Just 329 conflicts, compared to 540 a year earlier.”

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Source: https://reason.org/education-newsletter/how-the-2024-elections-affected-the-k-12-reform-landscape/