A Golden Treasure Hunt

Source: Malcolm Shaw 05/28/2025

Malcolm Shaw shares his thoughts on risks in the junior mining sector and explains why he believes one stock might be worth betting on.

Treasure hunting is an optimist’s game. You start with a map that is incomplete and try to fill in the blanks. If it were easy, someone would’ve likely beaten you to it, so it’s a difficult game by nature. In the prospecting world, optimism isn’t merely helpful — it’s essential — and if you’re successful, the rewards can be as great as any treasure hunt you can dream up.

So why am I talking about optimism today?

First, a story. A friend of mine has two sons who collect those miniature Hot Wheels cars. These cars are released in batches, and each batch includes what collectors term a “super treasure hunt” variant of one of the cars. This special edition features unique paint, distinctive wheels, and exclusive details that differentiate it from the standard “mainline” release. These “special” cars are not in every box and are randomly mixed into some of the boxes during the packing process. Finding one resembles finding “treasure,” and recently I found one that I gave the kids last weekend. You have to be an optimist to find these things because you actually have to go to a variety of stores, investing effort and time against others seeking the same prize, and the odds are inevitably stacked against you. And yet, sometimes, it happens.

Now I’ll draw parallels with junior mining exploration. When it comes to investing in junior mining exploration ventures, you must possess either madness, optimism, or some combination thereof. The probabilities consistently favor failure, and initial geological information is just support for an exploration model until someone actually produces tangible results from drill samples.

Certainly, you can understand what you’re aiming for, but Mother Nature maintains as the ultimate authority. Your only option involves extracting as much information as you can from the available data before drilling commences, developing target hypotheses, and proceeding accordingly. Typically, you experience complete failure, yet we’re all familiar with narratives where wealth materialized from that exceptional phenomenon called “breakthrough discovery.” Achieving mineral discovery resembles locating a super-treasure-hunt Hot Wheels car. Such events occur infrequently, but when they materialize, the results prove remarkably rewarding.

Naturally, this discussion leads toward a particular investment idea: Northern Shield Resources Inc. (NRN:TSX.V), currently trading at $0.055.

I’ve known Northern Shield’s Chief Executive, Ian Bliss, for approximately two decades. My initial encounter occurred during his BNN television appearance in December 2005 or thereabouts. He was pursuing a platinum prospect in Ontario with significant scale potential (Ian goes for big targets). That venture eventually secured Impala Platinum as a joint venture partner, and NRN labored extensively attempting to pinpoint reef-style PGE mineralization within their layered mafic intrusion.

Ultimately, success eluded them. Throughout subsequent years, Ian has developed and evaluated numerous additional prospects, yet he’s never achieved a major breakthrough. This reflects neither insufficient capability, inadequate commitment, nor substandard prospects/ventures. Ian has consistently possessed these qualities abundantly. He collaborates with academics across multiple universities, funds graduate-level research, and cultivates extensive networks spanning business and industry sectors.

Ian demonstrates unwavering persistence, but recently, market participants have largely ignored Ian’s activities, as reflected in NRN’s market cap of just CDN$8 million. NRN currently trades at eight cents with approximately 100 million outstanding shares — it is a true microcap. The corporation’s present focus in on a property called “Root and Cellar”, situated within an extensional corridor of Newfoundland’s Burin Peninsula. The project location offers excellent accessibility and infrastructure (reachable via standard two-wheel drive vehicles), meaning that if Ian discovers something valuable, development expenses will be low, and the probability of actually creating a mine increases. However, the crucial term remains “if” because presently, Root and Cellar represents merely a prospect, although drilling should commence in June, meaning that speculators won’t have to wait long to see if Ian is right.

What is the exploration model at Root and Cellar? Ian believes NRN has a preserved epithermal system on its hands, where NRN has only penetrated the uppermost sections, with the primary objective — the boiling zone — now targeted at greater depths.

The project sits within an extensional structural corridor of the Burin Peninsula, which is significant because extensional structural environments are required to create spaces where epithermal systems develop. Target validation emerges from both geological samples and geophysical surveys. At ground level, the company has revealed heavily modified rocks containing up to 78 grams per tonne (g/t) gold and up to 700 g/t tellurium within the project area.

The tellurium is noteworthy because tellurium associates with alkaline magmatism, which is recognized for generating economically viable gold deposits. The gold also proves interesting because (a) the presence of gold within the system is confirmed, and (b) the gold is found in rocks positioned very high within the system, potentially having migrated from below. Ian has also identified alternative geochemical indicators (particularly sodium-potassium ratios) to help zero-in-on the system’s core based on geochemical patterns observed in other established epithermal deposits. Geophysical data over the modeled system core reveals a significant magnetic low extending to depth, aligned with a chargeability high, both coinciding with gold in surface samples and trenches.

NRN drilled Root and Cellar to limited depths during 2023, encountering narrow high-grade (10 g/t across 1.5m) and extensive low-grade mineralization (34m of 0.6 g/t) in rocks displaying intense alteration with textures suggesting that they come from the shallow portions of an epithermal system.

The rocks appear to be thoroughly altered, and that gold didn’t fall out of the sky, so the logical inquiry becomes, “What lies beneath?” Testing the deeper target (-200-300m depth) costs relatively little, and NRN will begin drilling around the middle of June.

On the roulette wheel that is the junior exploration business, I believe this isn’t a crazy bet. The market capitalization is tiny, the potential is substantial (envision millions of gold ounces), and the stock trades near its historical lows. The risk-reward equation appears compelling.

My maximum loss potential here could theoretically be 100% if Ian comes up empty-handed, but Given Ian’s 20-year experience, I’m confident that if the current Root and Cellar proves unsuccessful, he’ll identify another prospect within this project or another one — lan is resilient.

So, does my downside truly reach 100%?

Probably not, but mentally, I must prepare for complete loss.

The upside potential?

Well, I’m uncertain. Perhaps 5000-10000% (a 50-100 fold increase) in the optimal scenario . . . something along those lines. A market capitalization measured in hundreds of millions represents a reasonable aspiration. Therefore, market mathematics suggests this project possesses a 1-in-50 to 1-in-100 success probability.

What do the geological data indicate regarding odds?

That’s the key question. For me, this undoubtedly represents a legitimate prospect . . . and I might estimate success probability closer to 1-in-10 or 1-in-5. This means that the odds remain HEAVILY stacked against me, but if I’m an optimist, which I am, an asymmetry exists that I can bet on provided I accept a potential total investment loss. I cannot control geological forces, but I can manage risk through capital exposure amounts . . . never risking beyond acceptable loss limits. This is as high risk as it gets, period. The reward potential is substantial, though.

At worst, I’ll add another entry to my collection of “ventures that failed,” but in the success scenario, I find the elusive super treasure hunt Hot Wheels car. The Lundin organization has consistently maintained a philosophy of “no guts, no glory,” and courage remains highly valued in exploration ventures. This situation proves no different.

I spotlight NRN today because my recent Hot Wheels discovery reminds me that occasionally things do succeed in the exploration arena, and you must remain vigilant to recognize what might be worth speculating on.

Obviously, I believe this merits my time and some of my capital. I maintain a long position in the stock and also participated in the initial tranche of NRN’s recent financing at 4 cents, which included a 10c warrant, valid for two years. The initial program should commence next month, consisting of 10-15 holes totalling 2000-3000m of drilling.

Will it succeed?

Maybe, maybe not. The odds remain stacked against me, but when seeking something rare, you must be a fan of treasure hunting or there’s no reason to participate. However, should you actually discover what you’re looking for, it can create quite rewarding (financially rewarding) outcomes, because nothing compares to beating the odds.

I’ve provided NRN’s corporate presentation here for anyone interested. Ian effectively summarizes the opportunity and welcomes discussions about his venture.

Happy hunting!

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Important Disclosures:

1. Malcolm Shaw: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: Northern Shield. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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( Companies Mentioned: NRN:TSX.V, )

Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/05/28/a-golden-treasure-hunt.html