ES Morning Update December 3rd 2025

Another sideways day yesterday, which again increases the odds of a new all time high this week, and it would make my wave count fail. Yes, after this week we’d still get a pullback for 1-2 weeks, but it should not take out the recent low on 11/21 but instead would be a higher low. Why? Because the move up from that low will no longer be a B wave but a 5 wave pattern for a new high (7000).

In fact, since I still see 7600+ into April/May of next year for the final high, we could be in a wave 1 inside a 5 wave move up for a final 5th wave to that 7600 target, and the wave 1 ends around 7000 this week. The sideways chop the past few days would be a smaller degree wave 4 with the move to 7000 being the smaller degree wave 5, which would then complete a medium degree wave 1 inside a larger degree wave 5 to 7600+.

Meaning the expected ABC pullback over the next 2 weeks would be a medium wave 2, and I doubt if it goes much more then 50% from the coming 7000 high and the 6539 low on 11/21. This is all just speculation right now as I don’t know yet if we are going to make a new all time high by this Friday or next Monday.

If we don’t, and we instead go sideways, then I’ll be open again to the bearish wave count on Monday’s charts that calls for a lower low and this move up being a B wave. I just want to remain open to whatever the market is going to give me and NOT get biased to one side or the other. I exited my short yesterday for a tiny loss and even took a small long targeting 7000 this week.

I did that because of how much volume there is at the 700 SPY level on the Call side. It’s like a magnet and should cause the market to rally up into it. But it must happen this week, or Monday at the latest. Otherwise we are back on the bearish wave count with the rally up just making a lower high. Keep in mind that “time” is super important here as if the bulls plan to kill that bearish wave count they MUST do the new high by Monday at the very latest. Next week the cycle flip to bearish, but again, if the bull hit 7000 then that “bearish cycle” will likely just be a 50% pullback (ABC) of the rally up from the recent low, and it will take the next 2 weeks to play out. Then comes the Santa rally.

Have an blessed day.