ES Morning Update October 27th 2025

Last Friday I posted an Alternate Wave count that has us in the Larger wave 5 up now… meaning the Large Wave 4 down was a one wave drop, not an ABC, and it ended on October 10th. That’s still the likely wave count, as while I also drew a rising trendline where a Medium Wave 4 pullback could go to there’s also a small chance that the October low is taken out in a Medium C Wave down from the other wave count where the October 10th low was just a Medium A Wave low.

And with the gap in the futures Sunday night I’d say there nearly a zero percent chance of that wave count playing out now, and instead we must be in Large Wave 5 up.  Inside that wave there will be 5 Medium Waves, and inside those waves there should be Small Waves too… like 5 for the wave 1, 3, and 5.

Looking at the futures now we are likely in a Small Wave 3 up, inside Medium Wave 3, inside Large Wave 5.  That’s why we are getting these gap ups now as it’s a powerful combination of waves.  If we would have subdivided Large Wave 4 down into an ABC, instead of a one wave (one day) move, this market could have extending in early 2026 I think, but now I think it’s going to end in November, maybe December, as it’s moving too fast.

I was thinking it would last into January or February of 2026, but it’s going nuts on the upside now, so I can’t see it lasting that long.  This looks and feels like a run away train now that’s going to crash sooner then expected.

A key date to note is November 6th, which I will cover “why” if we continue this squeeze into next week and we make it up to around that magic 7000 level that is acting like a magnet for the market now.  For now there’s nothing to do as I can’t chase it up and shorting is a fools game right now as you just get crushed every time you do it.  I should know it very well as I’ve been dipping my toes into shorts every now and then and they just don’t work out for me.  I have to exit at a loss on them and just go back on the sidelines.

That’s what I’m doing now… just sitting on the sidelines and will let the waves unfold into the 5th-6th to see if we get them completed or not.  I’d like to see the “Fear and Greed” index go to extreme greed too, which may or may not happen in the next two weeks.  Who’s knows for sure.

Have an blessed day.