ES Morning Update January 21st 2025
The move up Friday happened as I had hoped it would and it stopped right around the 1/6 prior high, but I don’t think it’s finished yet as I think it’s going to challenge the 12/26 prior higher today or tomorrow before we see a small pullback, which will probably be back down to the 1/6 prior high… meaning I’m not expecting a lot.
Remember that the cycles in the market don’t show any real bearishness until February, so any pullback this week will likely be bought and the market will either stay in a choppy range until the end of the month or breakout to a new high. Now… will that be the big squeeze for the blow off or just a slightly higher high to hit some stops overhead is unknown, but “time” in really important and when it’s ran out it’s over for the bulls.
So, if they don’t get that big breakout rally started this week (and I personally don’t think they will as the short term technicals don’t support it) then any new high next week shouldn’t be “the big squeeze” as there won’t be enough “time” left for it to reach 6500+ as we’ll enter February the week afterwards when the bearish period starts. There’s an FOMC meeting next week on Wednesday the 29th, which will likely be the “spark” to get any strong move up started.
But if it happens I just don’t see a crazy blow off top happening but instead just think we’ll see a slightly higher high the hits the stops on the bears and lures in some bulls right when we enter bearish February. As for today and/or tomorrow I see a little more on the upside toward the 12/26 prior high, then a pullback later in the week (small) and chop into the FOMC next week.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/01/21/es-morning-update-january-21st-2025/
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