Start em Sit em Week 16

Fantasy Football Start ’em Sit ’em Week 16

Another amazing and near perfect week. Perhaps the best featured sit/start yet. If you were in discord Sunday morning I reiterated that I still would play Noah Brown even without CJ Stroud. To many people’s surprise it was not Davis Mills getting the call versus the Titans but veteran journeyman Case Keenum. Keenum targeted Brown early and often as he was targeted a total of 11 times and pulled in 8 of them for 82 yards including a 3 yard touchdown. That gave Brown 22.2 points on the day and a huge win for anyone that started him. I projected him for 17.7 points so he outdid what I had hoped for even. I played him in my DFS league Sunday and he helped me get second place for the week and first overall in the standings. Thank you Noah! It looks like Stroud will still be out this week but with Collins’s status still in doubt Noah is a strong play again this week.

Sometimes you make a good read and feel good about it and it just doesn’t go your way. Numerous times this year I have felt that my logic was sound and it didn’t shake out in our favor. Then sometimes you feel good about a start or sit and it goes FAR better than you had hoped. That was the case with Dalton Kincaid this week. I had Kincaid for 4 catches for 28 yards and a mid TE2 this week and he ended up with a GOOSE EGG! Snaps continued to go down (49%) and just two targets with the return of Dawson Knox. However the real story was Josh Allen only needing to throw 15 times and completing 7 of those in a dominating win. I don’t think anyone could have foreseen that and all Bills pass catchers suffered as a result. To be fair I think if the game was competitive Kincaid would’ve had a couple grabs. I also recommended you find someone like Isiah Likely, who was available in many leagues, and ended up scoring 18 points. We will gladly take the GOOSE from Kincaid as the best Sit of the year thus far- bring in the dancin lobstas!!

Week 16 Start ’em Nick Mullens – Vikings QB

We’ve been keeping it spicy up here lately and we’re gonna keep that theme as it’s been working. I was considering going with Bijan and I really like Bijan to bounce back this week against the Colts after his putrid .4 point performance. But I also thought that’s a little too obvious and many of you who had Bijan are unfortunately probably not in the playoffs at this point. But if you still are; start Bijan and don’t look back.

Now for the start of the week we are going with a player I personally don’t even love as a player but he’s in a fantastic spot. That man is Nick Mullens. Never in a million years did I think I’d be here in week 16, the fantasy playoff semi-finals, and being saying start Nick Mullens. So let’s get through the obvious; the Vikings have some of the best skill position players in the NFL that command and earn both targets and fantasy points. Justin Jefferson had a good first week back as he went for 7-84 on 10 targets and Jordan Addison thrived as he often does when being the second WR to Jefferson. Of course you have the #1 fantasy tight end this year in TJ Hockenson who has been rock solid all year and you now have an extremely explosive and effective potential 3 down-back in Ty Chandler. Mullens has everything he needs to succeed offensively this week and even if he is not so great in real life he can still be an extremely effective fantasy option as we saw this past week. Mullens made some throws and gave his playmakers a chance (how could you not with these guys) but he also made some awful decisions throwing 2 interceptions and could have easily had a third. Yet still, Mullens posted 303 yards completing 26 of 33 passes and 2 touchdowns against a solid Bengals defense. He even added 10 yards on the ground and went for either 17.12 or 19.12 fantasy points depending on your league’s scoring for interceptions.

The fear with Mullens is what type of leash will he have if he faces some adversity? Well it is confirmed that he is the starter for Week 16 as Head Coach Kevin O’Connell said “The biggest thing is Nick showed he can execute our offense and really move the football team.” Solid praise from the captain of the ship and with Josh Dobbs being relegated to third string / emergency QB, meaning he can only go in if both active QB’s get hurt, it decreases the chances Mullens would get benched mid game. I highly doubt they’d go to rookie Jaren Hall if Mullens is struggling. So we have job security for this week and we have a great cast of playmakers, now how about the matchup?

We have the Detroit Lions coming into U.S. Bank Stadium and boy am I licking my chops. Sure the Lions defense looked great last week against the Broncos AT HOME. But the Lions on the road top to bottom are a totally different team. Overall, the Lions are the fourth best matchup for opposing quarterbacks but they are far worse on the road. The Lions last four opponents on the road have scored 28, 28, 38 and 38 points against them. The fantasy performances from these quarterbacks include Justin Fields going for 24.72, Carr 9.94, Herbert for 29.42, and Lamar Jackson for 33.38. Also it should be noted that Carr was playing with fractured ribs and did not finish the game. But as you can see the Lions get torched on the road and now you’re gonna tell me they have to guard Jefferson, Hockenson, and Addison? Nope it ain’t happening. I’m not saying in all 1 QB league’s to start Mullens, but if you have injuries to guys like CJ Stroud or Trevor Lawrence he is a great fill in. In 2 QB leagues I think he’s a near must start unless you have two elite options at the position. I don’t expect Mullens to play a fully clean game either but they will also likely be forced to air it out as Detroit ranks 8th against the run. The over/under of this game also sits at 47 and they are 3.5 point underdog, at the time of writing this, further supporting a high scoring game in which they should need to throw. I like Mullens as a high end QB2 this week. (I also love the value on a Mullens/Jefferson stack for DFS Jefferson $8,100 and Mullens $5,300 via DraftKings).

Nick Mullens Week 16 Projection: 28 of 42 passes for 326 yards, 2 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 rushing attempts for 7 yards (20.74 points)

QBs to Start

Justin Fields
Lamar Jackson
Baker Mayfield
Nick Mullens
Joe Flacco

RBs to Start

Breece Hall
Bijan Robinson
James Cook
Aaron Jones
Raheem Mostert
Joe Mixon
Isiah Pacheco
Chuba Hubbard
DeAndre Swift
Devin Singletary
Ty Chandler
Ezekiel Elliot

WRs to Start

Justin Jefferson
AJ Brown
Tee Higgins
DJ Moore
Cooper Kupp
Rashee Rice
Mike Evans
Brandon Aiyuk
Drake London
Garrett Wilson
Josh Palmer
Tyler Boyd
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Odell Bekcham Jr.
Jakobi Meyers
Gabe Davis

TEs to Start

David Njoku
George Kittle
Evan Engram
Tre McBride
Hunter Henry

Week 16 Sit ’em Terry McLaurin – Commanders WR

One thing that I don’t particularly like about the NFL public and analysis is how reactive it often is on a week to week basis. I can relate this from anything to do with fantasy to betting to the Monday Morning QB overreactions to the week that just concluded. Well I shouldn’t say I exactly hate it because I like to take advantage of these situations in which people and/or the markets are overreacting to a given week and not being proactive in their analysis. Much of this is a precursor to how I feel about Terry McLaurin this upcoming week.

After McLaurin scored a season high 26.1 points against the Rams, I believe a lot of people who own him are going to be eager to start him. Here’s a cautionary tale; dont! Do not take the bait/ false hope that is Terry McLaurin just because he had an awesome week 15. Truthfully it wasn’t as awesome as you may have thought aside from the high amount of points he scored. The context that is key here is that the majority of his production came in garbage time in the fourth quarter via backup QB Jacoby Brissett. McLaurin went for 6 catches for 141 yards and a score in this game, however, 3 of these catches spanning 93 yards and a touchdown came when Jacoby Brissett was throwing him the ball. For as many yards that people want to brag about from Sam Howell having thrown this year, he really hasn’t been nowhere as good in real life. This is reflected in both the Commanders record with him as well as the top two receivers in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson struggling mightily this year. It’s of course reflected in Rivera feeling the need to bench him for Jacoby Brissett who gave them a much needed spark as well. Brissett brought them to within 8 points after being down 20 points and had a near perfect passer rating.

Now I know what you’re probably thinking; that sounds like great news for Terry McLaurin! Getting a QB upgrade this sizable that is both better for his actual team and his fantasy value seems like a win-win, right? Jacoby Brissett must be the starter this upcoming week right?! Nope, RIverboat Ron has decided to go back to empty yardage man Sam Howell. For whatever reason it feels like Brissett is always doing his job and getting screwed no matter how well he performs. So Sam Howell will return as the starter this upcoming week against the Jets. Waddle did light up the Jets this past week but believe it or not the Jets are still the number one hardest matchup for opposing WR’s in fantasy. Terry should see a ton of Sauce Gardner who along with DJ Reed and the entire Jets defense should look to respond after an embarrassing week. This defense is still really good and prideful for as bad as the offense has been. We also have to consider that Terry put up a goose egg in his previous game, Week 13 against the Dolphins and failed to reach double digit fantasy points in the previous three games as well. In fact, in his first 13 games of the year, Terry McLaurin had only caught more than 6 balls one time and had only scored 2 touchdowns in that time too. The only thing scary about Terry this year has been his lack of production and how pitiful this Commanders team truly is. Be smart and sit Terry this week.

Terry McLaruin Week 16 Projection: 3 catches on 6 targets for 46 yards (7.6 points)

QBs to Sit

CJ Stroud
Tua Tagovailoa
Jordan Love
Kyler Murray
Russell Wilson

RBs to Sit

David Montgomery
Jonathan Taylor
Austin Ekeler
Javonte Williams
Jaylen Warren
Najee Harris
Gus Edwards
Alexander Mattison
Latavius Murray
Zach Charbonnet
D’onta Foreman
Dameon Pierce

WRs to Sit

Keenan Allen
Nico Collins
Terry McLaurin
Marquise Brown
Diontae Johnson
Tyler Lockett
Elijah Moore
Zay Flowers
Demario Douglas
Jerry Jeudy
Zay Jones
Rashid Shaheed
Quentin Johnston
Darnell Mooney
Kadarius Toney
Darius Slayton

TEs to Sit

Dallas Goedert
Dalton Kincaid
Tyler Conklin
Logan Thomas
Jonnu Smith

If you have any questions about your starting lineup, you can find me on the Fantasy Couch Discord @sully

Make sure to watch the Week 16 waiver wire video in case there are any players on waivers or free agency that you might have missed.

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