Modelling the US election: A hypothesis

This is a post I have avoided writing for weeks now.

Let’s treat it as purely an exercise. It is probably wrong.

We have one candidate who continuously does massive rallies with thousands to tens of thousands of enthusiastic supporters and a track record of massive successes as president from 2016 to 2020, against another candidate who has a known track record of failure from one point of view, to success in destruction of America by Cloward Piven standards from another. She is notoriously inarticulate and substitutes an attempt at infectious laughter for actual substance when speaking publicly.

Candidate A has endorsements from massively successful patriots across industry and the arts, while candidate B has endorsements which are widely suspected to be people connected to Epstein Island and P Diddy parties. Let’s call these Kompromat endorsements.

On the surface it is a slam dunk. But so was 2020 and it went the impossible way.

One suspicion has always been that the current admin, one which could be justified in calling it a COMINTERN office for North America in some ways, are launching critical theory attacks on candidate A, Donald Trump obviously, not because they think it will have an impact on the vote with any real effect, but because they want to create the illusion of plausibility should they steal the election by some means. In other words, that they have a plan to steal the election, but need the American people to believe it is at least possible that it was a legitimate win. The public doesn’t have to believe it was legit, just doubt that it was stolen to a degree where they do not take any effective action to change anything. This is basic game theory.

The left are amazingly pragmatic when it comes to power.

In the Orwell book, 1984 there is a passage or scene we refer to very often on this site. It is where O’Brien is talking to Winston Smith and explaining to him that 2=2 = 5, or 3, or 6 or any other number the party says it is, and Smith must believe it. Not just say the number expected, but must really believe that 2+2=5 because the party says it is 5 and the party decides what reality is.

But the passage doesn’t end there. It goes on to say that the party determines the laws of physics. Of all the natural universe. The distance to the stars, everything is decided by the party and can change as the party sees fit, and people will forget what the party said yesterday and commit to what the party says today using a process they call, “Crimestop”. Meaning stopping yourself from having a thought crime by convincing yourself of the truth of the party narrative.

But O’Brien goes on to add another element which is very interesting.

He explains that if you are making ammunition, or weapons, or something the party actually needs to preserve power, then 2+2 will always equal 4.

If we translate it into Coughlinese, it might come out as:

We are forced to live under a pseudo-reality. A barrage of narrative attacks covering all aspects of life. And we must believe these narratives, but even arguing the fine points of them,. leaves us helpless against the next barrage of them. But when it comes to the accumulation of power, the state will always use real science, and reality based processes and decisions.

And then we come to a curious, and highly disturbing new directive of the Democrat party in the USA.

#RFKJr is referencing a recent update to the DOD Directive 5240.01, to which has been the subject of much discussion over the past few weeks.

To those planing on turning out in the streets during the election, or at the U.S. Capitol— should proceed with caution ??#CivilWar pic.twitter.com/BsWDT8amDa

— Michael Taylor ? (@TheTaylor1982) October 24, 2024

The DoD under Kamala Harris just passed Directive 5240.01 which authorizes the government to use lethal force against civilians.

In her interview with Bret Baier, Kamala claimed that Trump would use the military to target the American people.

They always accuse others of what… pic.twitter.com/t5t8hqVRcF

— Libs of TikTok (@libsoftiktok) October 21, 2024

This new order to the DoD to work with police and use lethal force against civilians for civil disorder, almost feels like, should the hypothesis be correct, a contingency plan in the event that they fail to create enough plausible deniability that the election was fraudulent. Or put another way, that people just don’t quite have enough certainty that the election was fraudulent and decide to do what patriots do whenever their liberties are threatened by tyrants. The Biden admin most certainly deployed the army to guard the Capitol buildings after Jan 6th. This is when they famously made them sleep in a parking garage and if memory serves, made no provisions to feed them. But guard the massive fence they did do.

There is some debate over whether or not this new directive is real. When checking with Brave’s AI it explicitly states that far right media makes this claim which is patently false.

Here is a link to the actual document. Check page 13 (c) and interpret how you see fit. RFK Jr. was pretty clear on it in the video above and if memory serves, at Madison Sq, Gardens the other night as well.

One of the difficulties I have discussing things like this with people, is the resistance people have to accepting that what we are told is for an effect, and isn’t really information at all.
This is the nature of political warfare, or information warfare. But once you start to see narratives and coordinated news broadcasts more like the way a solider sees an enemy weapon, the greater the predictive value one’s models have. In other words, you can tell what is coming next.

When the Democrat party launches a massive attack against Donald Trump claiming he is a literal Nazi and holds Nazi rallies, it is unlikely they expect people to believe it en masse. They likely are encouraging unstable people to try and be heroes by assassination of Trump, or create deniability that, if indeed they do steal the election, enough people will reason that yes, lots of people believed Trump was a Nazi and voted for Harris. I have heard this reasoning from people often myself. Smart people. But people who have less faith in the general electorate than I do. Although for sure, I should have less than i do.

They also cause massive amounts of people to deny Trump is a Nazi on social media, thereby in a way, giving flesh and momentum to the lie itself, merely by acknowledging it.

Either way, we know that the Democrats do not think Trump is a Nazi.

Therefore we know they are lying. And they know they are lying, which is actually a prerequisite for the lie. And lies have a purpose.

So stringing together these few variables we have a blurry picture of sorts. One I genuinely hope is wrong.

It would be thrilling to have Trump win, actually have access to presidential powers and not be sequestered from them as he was in his first term, and I could admit how ridiculous all of this is.

But I won’t put crow or hat on the menu just yet.

Source: https://vladtepesblog.com/2024/10/29/modelling-the-us-election-a-hypothesis/