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New Zealand Energy Corp. Delivers Stronger Than Anticipated Production Results

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Source: Stephen Foucaud 08/20/2025

New Zealand Energy Corp. (NZ:TSX.V; NZERF:OTCQX) reported higher-than-expected production resumption from its oil assets, according to an Auctus Advisors research note.

On August 20, 2025, Auctus Advisors analyst Stephane Foucaud maintained coverage on New Zealand Energy Corp. (NZ:TSX.V; NZERF:OTCQX) with an unchanged target price of CA$1.70, representing 467% upside from the current share price at the time of the report of CA$0.30.

The analyst cited higher-than-expected production resumption from the company’s oil assets, which is set to enhance near-term cash flow generation.

Production Performance Exceeds Expectations

New Zealand Energy Corp. has delivered stronger than anticipated production results from its New Zealand oil assets. Monumental Energy reports that Copper Moki-1 and Copper Moki-2 wells are currently producing a combined 125 barrels per day, with rates trending upwards as pump speeds are gradually increased. Based on this momentum, Foucaud revised his gross production estimate for Copper Moki from 125 barrels of oil equivalent per day to 180 barrels of oil equivalent per day for the fourth quarter of 2025.

The Ngaere-1 pipeline was recommissioned in July with initial production exceeding 400 barrels per day gross, representing 200 barrels per day net to New Zealand Energy’s 50% working interest. Production is currently trucked to port and constrained by onsite tank capacity. Over the past two weeks, gross output has averaged 180 barrels per day, supplemented by 15 barrels per day via the oil pipeline, equating to approximately 100 barrels per day net to the company.

Infrastructure Development and Future Production Potential

The company is actively working to alleviate infrastructure bottlenecks and increase pipeline throughput. Foucaud noted that “we had not previously attributed any production to Ngaere-1″ and now assumes this level of output through September, followed by a 50% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to anticipated water breakthrough.

Ngaere-1′s performance has positive implications for the Waihapa-H1 well, located 15 meters updip. Given its structural elevation, Waihapa-H1 is expected to exhibit slower water encroachment and could be reactivated in the fourth quarter of 2025, though the analyst currently assigns no production from it in his model. New Zealand Energy also plans to restart Tariki-5A using gas lift, which could provide additional upside to production forecasts.

Gas Storage Development Timeline

The development concept for the gas storage facility is expected to be finalized this month, which remains the core value driver for the company according to Foucaud. The Tariki gas storage project represents the primary valuation catalyst, with the analyst applying a 50% discount to the unrisked value based on the 2017 Ahuroa sale comparison, assuming 20 billion cubic feet storage capacity at Tariki versus 11 billion cubic feet at Ahuroa.

Financial Projections and Cash Flow Impact

The analyst forecasts total net production of 180 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. Foucaud emphasized that “should Waihapa-H1 come online successfully, output could potentially double, further strengthening the balance sheet.” The higher than expected production volumes are set to enhance near-term cash flow generation for the company.

For 2025, the analyst projects cash flow from operations of negative US$1 million, improving from negative US$2 million in 2024. Cash flow per share on a diluted basis is expected at negative US$0.04 compared to negative US$0.19 in 2024. Net debt is projected to improve to negative US$1 million in 2025, representing a net cash position.

Valuation Methodology and Investment Thesis

Despite the near-term production uplift, Foucaud’s valuation remains anchored in the potential of the gas storage business. The analyst’s risked net asset value stands at CA$1.75 per share, while the unrisked net asset value for the gas storage component alone reaches CA$3.48 per share. The current valuation methodology reflects a 50% discount that “is in line with a valuation based on the respective injection/withdrawal capacities (but no discount).”

The company’s enterprise value of US$8 million in 2025 is expected to turn negative in 2026 at negative US$42 million as the gas storage project advances. With 40 million diluted shares outstanding, the market capitalization stands at US$9 million, providing significant leverage to successful execution of the gas storage development.

Strategic Focus and Risk Assessment

New Zealand Energy’s strategy centers on developing the Tariki gas storage facility while generating cash flow from existing oil production to support operations. The company benefits from its position in an established energy infrastructure region with access to existing pipeline networks and port facilities for oil export.

Key risks include technical challenges in optimizing oil production rates, water breakthrough timing at producing wells, and execution risks associated with the gas storage development. The company’s ability to finalize the gas storage development concept this month represents a critical milestone for unlocking the primary valuation driver.

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  1. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

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Disclosures for Auctus Advisors, New Zealand Energy Corp., August 20, 2025

Copyright and Risk Warnings New Zealand Energy Inc. (“NZE” or the “Company”) is a corporate client of Auctus Advisors LLP (“Auctus”). Auctus receives, and has received in the past 12 months, compensation for providing corporate broking and/or investment banking services to the Company, including the publication and dissemination of marketing material from time to time. MiFID II Disclosures This document, being paid for by a corporate issuer, is believed by Auctus to be an ‘acceptable minor non-monetary benefit’ as set out in Article 12 (3) of the Commission Delegated Act C(2016) 2031 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is produced solely in support of our corporate broking and corporate finance business. Auctus does not offer a secondary execution service in the UK. This note is a marketing communication and NOT independent research. As such, it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and this note is NOT subject to the prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Author The research analyst who prepared this research report was Stephane Foucaud, a partner of Auctus. Not an offer to buy or sell Under no circumstances is this note to be construed to be an offer to buy or sell or deal in any security and/or derivative instruments. It is not an initiation or an inducement to engage in investment activity under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Note prepared in good faith and in reliance on publicly available information Comments made in this note have been arrived at in good faith and are based, at least in part, on current public information that Auctus considers reliable, but which it does not represent to be accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The information, opinions, forecasts and estimates contained in this document are current as of the date of this document and are subject to change without prior notification. No representation or warranty either actual or implied is made as to the accuracy, precision, completeness or correctness of the statements, opinions and judgements contained in this document. Auctus’ and related interests The persons who produced this note may be partners, employees and/or associates of Auctus. Auctus and/or its employees and/or partners and associates may or may not hold shares, warrants, options, other derivative instruments or other financial interests in the Company and reserve the right to acquire, hold or dispose of such positions in the future and without prior notification to the Company or any other person. Information purposes only This document is intended to be for background information purposes only and should be treated as such. This note is furnished on the basis and understanding that Auctus is under no responsibility or liability whatsoever in respect thereof, whether to the Company or any other person. Investment Risk Warning The value of any potential investment made in relation to companies mentioned in this document may rise or fall and sums realised may be less than those originally invested. Any reference to past performance should not be construed as being a guide to future performance. Investment in small companies, and especially upstream oil & gas companies, carries a high degree of risk and investment in the companies or commodities mentioned in this document may be affected by related currency variations. Changes in the pricing of related currencies and or commodities mentioned in this document may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of the investment. Distribution This document is directed at persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments to whom Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (“FPO”) applies, or high net worth organisations to whom Article 49 of the FPO applies. The investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is available only to such persons and other persons to whom this communication may lawfully be made (“relevant persons”) and will be engaged in only with such persons. This Document must not be acted upon or relied upon by persons who are not relevant persons. Without limiting the foregoing, this note may not be distributed to any persons (or groups of persons), to whom such distribution would contravene the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 or would constitute a contravention of the corresponding statute or statutory instrument in any other jurisdiction. Disclaimer This note has been forwarded to you solely for information purposes only and should not be considered as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell, buy or subscribe to any securities or any derivative instrument or any other rights pertaining thereto (“financial instruments”). This note is intended for use by professional and business investors only. This note may not be reproduced without the prior written consent of Auctus. The information and opinions expressed in this note have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but, neither Auctus, nor any of its partners, officers, or employees accept liability from any loss arising from the use hereof or makes any representations as to its accuracy and completeness. Any opinions, forecasts or estimates herein constitute a judgement as at the date of this note. There can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, forecasts or estimates. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied is made regarding future performance. This information is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company and its subsidiaries. Auctus is not agreeing to nor is it required to update the opinions, forecasts or estimates contained herein. The value of any securities or financial instruments mentioned in this note can fall as well as rise. Foreign currency denominated securities and financial instruments are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that may have a positive or adverse effect on the value, price or income of such securities or financial instruments. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options and other derivative instruments, can give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. This note does not have regard to the specific instrument objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this note. Auctus (or its partners, officers or employees) may, to the extent permitted by law, own or have a position in the securities or financial instruments (including derivative instruments or any other rights pertaining thereto) of the Company or any related or other company referred to herein, and may add to or dispose of any such position or may make a market or act as principle in any transaction in such securities or financial instruments. Partners of Auctus may also be directors of the Company or any other of the companies mentioned in this note. Auctus may, from time to time, provide or solicit investment banking or other financial services to, for or from the Company or any other company referred to herein. Auctus (or its partners, officers or employees) may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented herein, or research or analysis on which they are based prior to the material being published. Further Disclosures for the United Kingdom This note has been issued by Auctus Advisors LLP, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. This note is not intended for use by, or distribution to, US corporations that do not meet the definition of a major US institutional investor in the United States or for use by any citizen or resident of the United States. This publication is confidential and may not be reproduced in whole or in part or disclosed to another party, without the prior written consent of Auctus. Securities referred to in this note may not be eligible for sale in those jurisdictions where Auctus is not authorised or permitted by local law to do so. In particular, Auctus does not permit the distribution or redistribution of this note to non-professional investors or other persons to whom disclosure would contravene local securities laws. Auctus expressly disclaims and will not be held responsible in any way, for third parties who affect such redistribution. © Auctus Advisors LLP All rights reserved 2025

( Companies Mentioned: NZ:TSX.V; NZERF:OTCQX, )


Source: https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/08/20/new-zealand-energy-corp-delivers-stronger-than-anticipated-production-results.html


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