Jackdaw - bingo!

From the day Burnham took office, the green-left has been howling at him not to approve Jackdaw & Rosebank.   This raucous attempt at intimidation possibly peaked with a piece in the Graun analysed at C@W here, when more than 20 distinct (and awfully shrill) “arguments” were made, one after the other – and hilarious reading they still make.  It was always pretty obvious they protesteth too much which, as regards Jackdaw at least, they probably now recognise themselves.  

And now he’s gone and “Failed His First Big Test” or, as we would put it, “Passed“.  Time will tell if the threatened back-bench revolt / party split / defections to the Greens will result.  I’m guessing not, but will be taking a forensic interest in how things pan out in the public debate.  (If anyone spots a really juicy piece in an obscure journal etc, do let us know.)

As we said all along, Jackdaw (gas) was always the easier decision to make and to sell.  You don’t need to have a degree in Party Management to see the logic in running it first, in order to see how matters pan out from here (- not to mention in order to get the gas ashore this winter!)  If it turns out to have burned a bunch of political capital, Rosebank (oil) might have to wait.  If, by contrast, it’s a walk in the park, Rosebank will follow, as night follows day.  Fahnbulleh seems to be briefing that she’s agin’; but let’s see.  That might just be to get the protestors off her back for now.  It’s Burnham’s call anyway, and he & Healey might want the exports / jobs / tax revenues / preservation of international reputation.

Not all of the authors of the original 20+ Shrill Arguments will have been cowed by Jackdaw: indeed some of them – including Ed “Climate Vandalism” Miliband himself – had already accepted by then that Jackdaw might be quite likely to fly.  So for Round-2-Rosebank we may expect another round of high-pitch whining and threatening in the days and weeks to come.  Part of our forensic analysis of this political fallout will be to note exactly who considers it worth prolonging the fight – and how much of their own political capital they are willing to expend in doing so.  

That won’t include many Labour backbenchers, I’m guessing: so no big backbench revolt.  Of course, one of the 20+ was the threat of defections to the Greens, and loss of votes in the same direction: and for sure, a lot of would-be ambitious MPs are now simply concerned to save their seats.  It helps greatly that “Polanski” is staggering on the ropes, of course: and that the red entryists have systematically made the Green party look anything but cosy & welcoming.

How are the popcorn reserves holding up?

ND