Open for business

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   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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I was not a big fan of our former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. I could easily fill pages laying out everything I disagreed with during his time in office, but for brevity (and my own sanity) I will stick to his economic record and compare it with what we are seeing so far from our new Prime Minister Mark Carney, who in my view is off to a good start.

During the Trudeau years, the relationship between Canada and India became badly strained and ultimately reached a low point in 2023. A Canadian Sikh, Hardeep Nijjar, was murdered in Surrey, British Columbia, and Trudeau told Parliament that the government had credible evidence linking the killing to the Indian government. That accusation triggered a diplomatic crisis. Both countries expelled diplomats, trade talks were put on hold, and the dispute played out very publicly.

Thankfully, we now have a more pragmatic and business focused prime minister in Mark Carney who appears determined to repair the relationship and restart trade discussions between the two countries.

This week, India is sending a delegation of government officials along with more than 150 senior business leaders from a range of industries to discuss trade and investment opportunities. Ottawa is calling this the largest Indian delegation ever to visit Canada, with the goal of advancing discussions toward a comprehensive economic partnership and doubling trade to $70 billion by 2030.

This fits within Carney s broader vision to expand Canada s global trade and reduce its reliance on the U.S., with a target of reaching $300 billion in non-U.S. exports by 2035. It also builds on Carney’s own visit to India earlier this year, which was notable as the first visit by a Canadian leader since 2018.

And if you remember that last visit, it was the one marked by those awkward images of Trudeau and his family dressed in traditional Indian clothing.

By contrast, Carney s trip focused on signing trade deals over optics. He signed a series of agreements with Prime Minister Modi, including a $2.6 billion deal to supply uranium, along with ten additional commercial agreements worth about $5.5 billion.

Another critical area where we have seen a marked difference between Trudeau and Carney is in the energy sector, particularly when it comes to pipelines. Justin, much like his father, showed a clear disdain for Alberta and its energy industry. He implemented several policies and regulations that significantly hurt the sector and, in turn, our broader economy.

Examples include the introduction of a new carbon tax, oil and gas emissions caps, the cancellation of the Northern Gateway pipeline, a west coast tanker ban, and Bill C-69, which created a new and redundant environmental review process for all major infrastructure projects. Bill C-69 colloquially became known as the no more pipelines bill.

As a result of these short sighted and anti energy policies, we saw foreign energy companies leave Canada en masse, with billions of dollars in investment flowing out. This was a very difficult period for the Canadian energy sector, which suffered from poor stock performance. Given the sector s sizable weight in the Toronto Stock Exchange, this also weighed heavily on overall market performance.

Most importantly, this heavy-handed approach alienated Alberta and the western provinces. We can draw a direct line from these policies to the rise of the Alberta separatist movement and the upcoming referendum in October, where residents will vote on whether the province should begin the legal and constitutional process of leaving Canada.

In short, these environmental and regulatory policies directly harmed a critical sector of our economy, weakened the stock market, and contributed to political divisions that could, albeit unlikely in my view, threaten national unity.

In contrast, Mark Carney has taken a more constructive approach. He recently signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith regarding the potential construction of a new oil pipeline. This pipeline could deliver an additional one million barrels of oil per day to the B.C. coast, where it would then be shipped to Asia.

The agreement outlines the possible construction of a new pipeline as early as 2027. It also sets out a regulatory framework that includes carbon pricing and the development of a large scale carbon capture project known as the Pathways Alliance initiative. This project is intended to address climate concerns while also maintaining support from more progressive stakeholders.

This pipeline could achieve several important objectives. It would support growth in the energy sector by increasing production and exports, reduce Canada s reliance on U.S. markets, and help diversify our energy trade. Just as importantly, it could serve as a bridge toward rebuilding relationships with Alberta and the western provinces.

While I do have some concerns about the strict environmental requirements tied to the agreement, particularly given that other major oil producing countries do not face similar constraints, I view the overall direction as positive.

Finally, Mark Carney has laid out an ambitious agenda to advance nation-building projects under his Build Canada Strong program. The main components of this plan include: 1) fast-tracking large energy and infrastructure projects through the newly created Major Projects Office (MPO); 2) launching the $51 billion Build Communities Strong Fund to support infrastructure investment; and 3) diversifying trade away from the U.S. while increasing non-U.S. exports.

Key projects include the construction of new pipelines and LNG terminals, the expansion of ports, rail corridors, and highways, the development of critical minerals and mining, and upgrades to Canada s electricity grid.

These initiatives are expected to create jobs, drive economic growth, increase energy exports, and strengthen national unity while reducing reliance on the United States.

Given the increasingly strained relationship with what was once our closest ally, Carney is taking a pragmatic approach. This means putting aside some of our moral differences with countries such as India and China and focusing instead on building stronger economic and trade ties with these large and fast-growing markets. At a time when Canada faces intense economic competition with the world s largest economy, the priority must be on trade, growth, and long-term resilience.

So far, I have been encouraged by Carney s more pro-business direction. The focus now must shift from planning to execution. As the saying goes, talk is cheap. Delivering on this agenda will be what ultimately matters. Regardless of political affiliation, Canadians should support efforts to strengthen the country s economic future and build a more resilient and prosperous nation.

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/05/30/open-for-business/