Unsurprising

It’s all connected.

The war = energy shock = inflation. So bond yields pump and prices drop as investors look for protection from rising prices. And that bring a pop in mortgage rates.

It’s arrived. What you could get for 3.5% or so in February will now cost 4.2%. This mirrors the situation in America, which got us into this mess. There fixed-rate, 30-year money has jumped from the high-5s to 6.5% in the last five weeks.

Everywhere, in fact, rates are up. Fuel prices are way up. Stress levels are even higher.

We’re now getting in reports from housing markets across Canada for the first four weeks of the US-Israel-Iran war and you can guess the direction. Yup, down she goes.

In Calgary, our petro capital, sales plunged 13% year/year. Prices are off another four percent, and detached houses are thirty grand cheaper than during last year’s spring market – which also sucked.

In Edmonton, even worse. Sales crashed 14% from year-ago levels, although prices were stable (and low). “Compared to last year, there’s more available inventory and fewer sales,” says head realtress Darlene Reid. “Sellers looking for a quick sale may have to price strategically to get their property to stand out.”

In Vancouver, just over 2,000 sales happened in the entire city last month – in prime spring – a decline of 3% from last year (yeah, it was bad, too). By the way, this is a 32% decline from the long-term (10-year) trend. That helped push prices down once more, this time by just under 7%, with the average sitting at $1.1 million.

The chief wizard says he’s not fussed by it. “Year-to-date, sales are tracking our forecast for the year closely,” states Andrew Lis, “and the weakness in demand we continue to observe at the aggregate level is unsurprising.” He also says detached home sales are looking stronger while condos become more suicidal.

Inventory is flat, and only 14% of available homes found a buyer last month – which means 86% did not. And Lis says the war and rising yields do not bode well. “As a result, it’s reasonable to expect there may be a dampening effect on demand as we head into the spring market.”

Across the ditch, sales also weaker in Victoria – by 2.5% for detached and a withering 19% for condos. Prices are not doing much – down a little across the board from last year, while inventory is 10% higher. Realtors still hold out hope that things will be better by May or June – and that the bombs stop falling on Tehran by then.

“We continue to observe a market which offers plentiful opportunity for both buyers and sellers,” says boss Fergus Kyne. “The current conditions of good supply and a reasonable level of consumer demand have created fewer high-pressure transactions and allowed time for both sides of the sale to make decisions and undertake due diligence.”

Translation: we know the bidding wars and blind auctions are over. But, please, just sign the damn offer…

GTA stats will be out shortly. The results should be similar. Sales are in a multi-year drift lower. Prices have been slowly melting now for almost four years. Buyer confidence has ebbed, and even a 30% crash in valuations has not been enough to coach newbie buyers out of their moms’ basements.

Now we have Trump, tariffs, trade wars, a real war, rising gas prices, inflation coming back, a flaccid economy and swelling mortgage rates. Oh, plus AI will maybe eat your job. Throw in some locusts and swine flu, or another revival concert by (shudder) Rush and life loses all meaning.

As we told to the other day, 2026 may well mark the bottom for housing in Canada. The only question is how near we are now, and the degree of risk for those who step forward and buy.

Will they look like geniuses in a few years? Or Trumpian roadkill?

About the picture: “Thank you for this blog,” writes Michael. “I still look forward to reading it daily after 10+ years. Here’s an action shot of Nala, she is trying to reach her bone by wiggling on her back, she makes us laugh.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/06/unsurprising/