Three, nothing

No surprise Carney got his majority last night. After welcoming five defectors into his government caucus, the PM needed just one more win. He got three.

The romps in Chrystia Freeland’s former riding and east-end Toronto were not surprising – except for the scale. Massive. Crushing.

In Rosedale the Lib candidate matched Freeland’s giant 64% vote count from 2025. In Scarborough the red team took 70% of the vote (up eight points). And in hotly-contested Terrebonne, north of Montreal where the Liberals won by a single ballot in 2025 – leading to a byelection do-over – the Carney candidate this time increased the margin, and upped the party count by almost 10 per cent.

But that wasn’t the real story. It was the collapse of the Poilievre party.

In the Quebec riding the Tories shed almost 15% of their 2025 support – taking only 3% of the ballots. In Rosedale the Conservative shrinkage was over 11%, with only twelve percent of the electorate supportive. And in Scarborough the Con support withered from 30% last year to just 18%.

These results are even more startling when you consider history. Byelections are usually protest votes, and normally the governing party is spanked. But this time the guys in charge increased their share and the critics were repudiated. This also (of course) comes on the heels of the four Conservative MPs who decided they didn’t like the direction and leadership of their party and drifted across the aisle. A Dipper joined them. Word in Ottawa is that there are more defections to come.

It’s also a year after the Conservatives went from being the sure-thing next government to the opposition benches. Pierre Poilievre lost his long-held Ottawa-area seat and was forced to seek a safe riding out in the Alberta boonies where a right-tilting border collie would be elected.

So, here we be. No election until 2029, when Trump is gone, tariffs will be eased and you really wish you’d bought a house in the summer of 2026. The latest is that Carney will now push through some ‘affordability’ measures like a cut in the gas tax. That bill to curb online harm will be shoved ahead. Budget measures will fly through the House. The PM’s new trade deals and infrastructure projects, along with massive investments in defense, are clearly coming.

It’s been six years since the country has a majority government, and this one will be less woke, but still steeped in deficit spending and in power during a dangerous time when then rogue US president is most likely to shock. The IMF is also warning us today that a global recession is looming if the Iran mess continues. Canada’s economy has been barely sputtering along. The jobs market is weak. Real estate is crumbling. US tariffs have hurt. We are at risk.

Carney has a daunting challenge ahead. But so do Conservatives.

“The Carney Liberals did not win a majority government through a general election or today’s byelections. Instead, it was won through backroom deals with politicians who betrayed the people who voted for them,” Poilievre said graciously on X last night.

“Liberals expect Canadians to give up, get complacent and go away, so Carney can have total power without any accountability. That will not happen. Our country and its people are worth fighting for.”

Poilievre also made a point of saying he would be leading his troops into the next election, now three years distant.

Polls change constantly, but at the moment they spell doom for the Cons. Nanos puts the Libs ahead by 13 points while Ipsos indicates a 12-point lead. Conservative support at 32% is down disastrously from the 41% garnered last Spring. That is a decline in the Tory base of almost a quarter in one year. Combined with the MP defections it belies a deep mistrust by most Canadians of what PP and his gang now stand for.

That has been exacerbated by Poilievre’s reluctance to call out as traitors the Alberta separatists now trying for a referendum on cessation. It’s been deepened by his inability to recognize that losing an election, losing his seat, losing a quarter of his popular support and losing four caucus members calls for humility, reflection and change. Just crying that the other guys are slimy cheats and the country is broken doesn’t cut it.

Go to a hockey or basketball game, Pierre. Listen to the crowd belt out O Canada.

Work together. Or get out of the way.

About the picture: “Here is a picture of our best friend Banjo, who has graced your blog in the past,” writes Lisa. “He is a very good boy who loves the snow and long walks on the beautiful frozen river in our prairie burg. Thank you for your sage advice over the years. I think we have set ourselves up for retirement (coming fairly soon) and, most importantly, there is always $ left over for the best kibble, tastiest treats, bounciest ball and comfiest dog bed.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/14/three-nothing/