The Lego wars

So, oil topped a hundred bucks again this morning. The latest surge is 5%, and comes as the mighty USA sinks further into the morass of Middle East politics, underestimating the grit and cunning of a civilization a few thousand years older than that of America.

Besides, those crafty Persians have a secret weapon. Lego videos.

Two or three times a day TikTok and other platforms are slammed with a new AI-generated, rap music-filled, viciously satirical skewering of Trump, Netanyahu, Hegseth and others. The Epstein files, global oil prices and financial markets are playfully married to pedophilia, narcissism and economic mayhem – all portrayed by Lego characters and now garnering millions of views (by millions of Americans).

What a weird war.

Well, Mr. Market understands there is no quick ending in sight. No peace talks. No accommodation. No surrender and no victory. It’s not war at the moment. But it’s not peace, either.

The conflict has cost the US about $60 billion (those Patriot missiles alone at $3 million each – used to bring down $15,000 Iranian drones). None of Trump’s war goals have been accomplished. His poll numbers are tanking. The midterms are lost. His coalition is cracking.

So what will he do now?

Yup. He posted that. If he thinks more violence, bombs and death are an incentive to Iran then the guy has not been paying attention. And so markets see a protracted naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which could bring elevated energy costs for all of 2026. Seriously.

Thus, it’s back. Inflation. Now at about 2.5%% – after being down to just 1.8% in Canada – the cost of living is surely set to rise consistently over the months to come. Normally this would have the Bank of Canada on high alert and ready to up its rate to counter the price flare. Bot not this time. Not yet.

This morning the CB elected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 2.25%. The bankers are also betting, praying, hoping that the price of crude comes tumbling back down – but not until next year.

“The evolving conflict in the Middle East is causing heightened volatility and US trade policy continues to reshape global trade patterns. Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty. The Bank’s April outlook assumes tariffs remain unchanged and the global benchmark price of oil declines to US$75 per barrel by mid 2027.”

The bankers are telling us the bout of higher prices is transitory (we’ve heard that before), that the Canadian economy will limp along with sub-2% annual growth and although inflation will jump in the short-term, after that we all get a pony.

‘CPI inflation will likely rise further in April to about 3%,”the bank admits. “Based on the assumption that oil prices will ease, inflation is forecast to come down to the 2% target early next year and remain around 2% over the projection horizon.

“We are closely monitoring the impact of the conflict in the Middle East and how the economy is responding to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Governing Council is looking through the war’s immediate impact on inflation but will not let higher energy prices become persistent inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.”

In other words, the bankers have hopium. Oil will come back down in a few months. Inflation will swell a little, then ebb. The economy will not slip into recession. However, if we screw up, says the CB, “we stand ready to respond as needed”. And, yes, that means higher interest rates

“There remains a huge number of unknowns for the outlook, with oil and trade looming largest. Until we get more clarity, the BoC is likely going to stay on hold,” says economist Benjamin Reitzes.

Or until Trump shoots stuff up, portrays himself one day as Jesus, the next as Rambo and threatens to wipe out the Iranian civilization in a holy crusade. Then again, he might just TACO and focus on his ballroom.

The bottom line: ignore it all. This is noise. Stay invested. Walk the pooch. Chill. They’re all nuts.

About the picture: “This is baby Buckley,” writes Shira in Toronto. “His mom is my good friend, and this photo was taken in April 2019 after he got his first haircut when the world was very different than it is today. So adorable. So innocent. Buckley is a big boy now and he’s still cute, and I still have hope that things will turn out OK.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/29/the-lego-wars/