What if this is all part of the plan?

You don’t have to look very hard these days to see widespread criticism of the conflict in Iran.

Obviously, there are the usual suspects like the New York Times and Washington Post who have called it “folly” and “rotten”. But plenty of voices on the right have joined in the criticism as well.

Tucker Carlson calls it “absolutely disgusting and evil”. Thomas Massie says it is “not America First”. Joe Rogan says it’s “insane”. Joe Kent, formerly the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned his post because Iran was not “an imminent threat” and there was no “clear path to a swift victory”.

In short, there are plenty of respectable and informed views that Iran is (1) not going well, and (2) not in America’s interests. And I can certainly understand their points of view.

Personally, I see this from a lot of different angles– some positive, some negative. But at the same time I also think there’s a possibility that what’s happening right now might actually BE the plan.

Just consider: the US national debt is $39 trillion. Deficits are piling on an additional $2 trillion per year. Social Security is only six years away from running out of money. And the vast majority of United States Congressmen couldn’t possibly care less.

It doesn’t make you unpatriotic or unAmerican to understand this simple truth: US government bonds are simply not as attractive as they used to be for foreign investors.

The leadership of every foreign country on this planet recognizes that they could wake up tomorrow morning and find out that their Treasury holdings have been frozen. Or they could be sanctioned. Or there could be another tariff escalation. Or their alliance terminated. Or another military strike.

They also believe that Congress will continue to do nothing about America’s spiraling debt and budget deficit. Interest on the debt already exceeds 22% of federal tax revenue, and the problem is rapidly becoming much worse.

They also know there’s a good chance the Federal Reserve will fail to achieve price stability, and that inflation could easily go much higher from here.

All of that spells plenty of risk, especially for foreign governments and central banks. Given that US Treasury securities pay a measly 4%, it hardly seems worth their investment.

That’s why so many foreign governments and central banks around the world started moving a portion of their strategic financial reserves away from the US dollar… and into gold. This has been a trend for a few years now– central bank gold purchases surged in 2023, 2024, and 2025.

That’s a huge problem for the US government, which critically needs foreign investors to continue buying Treasury bonds. Treasury demand from foreigners helps keep interest rates down and inflation in check.

Conversely, if foreigners ditched the dollar entirely, inflation and interest rates would both skyrocket.

So, what better way to prevent this than to give foreigners an extremely compelling reason to buy US Treasurys and hold US dollars?

Oil is the most widely traded commodity in the world. Every country needs it, and despite the cries of deranged teenagers who superglue themselves to the pavement, demand for oil keeps growing.

Oil has traditionally been bought and sold in US dollars… even when neither buyer nor seller are American. So, when Australia sells oil to India, that transaction takes place in US dollars.

The sheer volume of the oil trade means that every country stockpiles US dollars in order to participate in global energy markets. And they typically hold US dollars by buying Treasury bonds.

This war might possibly have been a ploy to gain control over Iran’s oil: punch them in the face, decimate their leadership, destroy much of their military capabilities… and then offer a peace deal:

“We will lift sanctions and allow you to sell oil on the global market, and even line up investment to expand your production, as long as everything is denominated in US dollars. No oil will be sold in any other currency. Better yet, we’ll push you to peg your currency to the US dollar, just like other countries in the region.”

Obviously, they would never communicate such a strategy in public; they’d never stand on stage and tell CNN what they’re really trying to accomplish.

But in the end, maybe they don’t really care if there’s true regime change in Iran. Maybe they don’t really care about Israel’s objectives either. Perhaps the singular American goal is to boost foreign demand for the US dollar.

And it’s possible they might just pull that off.

Again, I’m just speculating. The only thing we can say for sure is that there’s a lot riding on this outcome.

If they succeed, the resurgence of the dollar could buy the US enough time to fix its problems. If they fail, it could be the proverbial nail.

That’s why this war in Iran could end up right alongside 9/11, the GFC, and Covid as one of the most consequential events of our time.

Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/what-if-this-is-all-part-of-the-plan-154866/