The crumble

Stick a fork in it. Done like dinner.

The latest government stats on jobs and the economy could hardly be worse, and must come as a helluva jolt to the boys in Ottawa. Needless to say, this is the end of any hope for a Canadian rutting season real estate revival. Meanwhile thank Dog you’re not a travel agent, car salesguy or a realtor. (And we pray for those of you who are). Oh yeah, and farmers waiting for fertilizer. Or… never mind… it’s all bad at the moment. And oil was a hundred bucks again overnight.

The news means interest rates won’t be rising this year and house prices will continue to fall. As BMO economists said this morning, “this ranks as one of the worst (non-pandemic) months ever for jobs. Even in percentage terms… it rivals some of the biggest drops seen during recessions.”

Adds CIBC: “This is clearly a very worrisome report for the BoC that shows that labour market slack has increased and activity is frozen amidst trade uncertainty.” Over at TD, the same. “This was a decidedly weak report,” says the bank. “Not only did employment decline, but the labour force contracted for a second consecutive month.”

These are the facts:

• We lost 84,000 paycheques last month. Ouch.
• All the positions lost were full-time, and the vast majority were in the private sector.
• Total hours worked “crumbled” (as BMO puts it).
• Job losses happened in eight of then 10 provinces
• The unemployment rate zipped higher by two ticks to 6.7%.
• Youth unemployment topped 14%.
• The labour force has contracted again, this time by 27,000 people,
• In the past year, job growth turns out to be about zero.

There’s more to fret about, too. Retail sales suck. Manufacturing activity has taken a downturn. Now the crazy Trump war has ignited the Middle East, swollen energy costs, further disrupted global trade and threatens to add inflation at the same time our economy is wobbly. Yeah, that ‘s’ word again. Stagflation.

In the last few days we’ve also been yammering on here about housing, as sales, prices and inventory levels in the resale market slump and a version of Black Death makes its way through the new-home sector. Consumer confidence is a mess, and now the latest employment numbers underscore why. Most people look around and quickly conclude this is no time to be asking TNL@TB for a million-dollar mortgage to buy a slanty semi.

Now, this is all somewhat of a surprise. Maybe even a shock. Analysts expected job gains last month – a modest 10,000 – not a giant loss of more than 90,000. They did not foresee the labour force losing about a thousand people per day. Nobody thought we’d get a recession-type contraction when there is no recession. Yet. And the unemployment rate of 6.7% – as much as it exceeds the US rate of 4.3% – would have been even higher if our pool of workers was not shrinking.

Yikes.

Now, of course, the war is raging and there is no clear exit for the two men who started it. Trump is trapped. Netanyahu is in his element. Iran is not rolling over. There is no easy way to get those oil tankers moving again and the whole thing is wildly unpopular, hideously expensive and will likely end without any meaningful improvement for the world.

Meanwhile, have you see the social media counter-offensive being mounted by Iran? TokTok feeds are being swamped with the images, voices, smiles and high-fives of comely young Iranian soldiers, fighter pilots and missile control-room operators. “Support Iran,” they say. “Fight for justice. Habibi, come to Iran!”

Ten million views in the last few days. AI-generated, of course. But what isn’t?

So, big oil probably means more inflation but the CB can’t raise rates to cool it with the labour market on its knees. A tough spot to be in. “We stumbled out of the gate this year,” says economist Doug Porter, “and now the economy has to contend with higher energy costs flowing from the Iran conflict… The last thing the Bank would be considering would be rate hikes.”

The CIBC econs agree. “This data will throw cold water on market hawks who had priced in a chance of BoC hikes this year prior to the data, and we continue to expect no move from the BoC this year,” they say. The bank also points out that when discouraged workers and those who are waiting for replies to applications are added, our jobless frate soars to above 9%.

And here is the bottom line from TD’s brain trust: “We are expecting the labour market to tread water in 2026, as a rapid slowdown in population growth drags on labour supply, and soft economic momentum limits hiring. The wildcard to all of this is how big the inflation shock from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will be. The duration of the supply disruption remains highly uncertain, but its length will impact inflation and, thereafter, consumer spending and the economy at large.”

As stated here recently, these are the days when the courageous invest and the timid turtle. And no, Miss Hottie, we’re not coming to Iran.

About the picture: “Here’s a contemplative pose for you,” write Neil and Julia, “from the local resident at a monastery on a mountain top on Hydra Island in Greece (Leonard Cohen’s old haunt) as we try to burn through the dividends that just keep flowing. Very calm fellow without a care in the world. The monks even had beer for sale to wet one’s thirst after the hike up.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/03/13/the-crumble/