S&P 500 Falls as Oil Prices Spike

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) dropped another 1.6% during the second trading week of March 2026, closing at 6,632.19 on Friday, 13 March 2026. The index is five percent below its 27 January 2026 record high of 6,978.59.

Stock prices continued falling during this week as oil prices surged over $100 per barrel because of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s efforts to close the Hormuz Strait in response to U.S. and Israeli military action against its government.

The surge in oil prices has raised the spectre of higher inflation, which in turn has made more Federal Reserve rate cuts, which had been widely expected, much less likely. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will delay an expected quarter point reduction in the Federal Funds Rate steady until 16 September (2026-Q3), twelve weeks later than what was anticipated a week earlier. The tool does not anticipate any other interest rate changes in 2026.

The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the trajectory of the S&P 500 following along near the bottom of the redzone forecast range during most of the week and dropping slightly below it on Thursday and Friday.

For analytical purposes, we can use the middle of the redzone forecast range to reasonably represent what path the S&P 500 would have taken if not for the impact of the Iran war. At this writing, the index would be around four percent higher than it is two weeks after the beginning of the geopolitical event.

Speaking of which, you can see some of the ebb and flow of it in the market-moving headlines of the week that was.

Monday, 9 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil’s wild ride: Crude drops 10% after 30% surge as Trump signals conflict may end

• Oil jumps to 2022 high on Iran war, falls after close as Russia sanctions in doubt
• Oil output, exports knocked by Iran conflict as prices surge

Fed minions may be thinking about hiking U.S. interest rates because of oil price shock:

• Iran war fuels central bank rate hike bets on inflation fears

• Iran conflict forces Asian central banks into sharp policy rethink

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China makes biggest retail fuel price cap increase in four years amid Iran war
• China consumer inflation hits three-year high on holiday surge

BOJ minions get wage hike inflation they’ve tried to create, will use to justify more rate hikes:

• Japan real wages grow for first time in 13 months, boosting BOJ hike case

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Europe’s struggling retail sector looks ill-prepared for new energy price shock

Wall St ends higher as hopes of Iran war resolution offset inflation fears

• Shares skid as oil surge threatens inflation shock
• Oil soars 25%, gold drops as Iran war jolts global commodity markets
• Iran war boosts oil price, but oil major shares are stuck on the sidelines

Tuesday, 10 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices dive as Trump says Iran war will end ‘very soon’
• US existing home sales unexpectedly increase as mortgage rates decline

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China pins hopes on society-wide AI push to add jobs, rejuvenate economy
• China’s exports turbocharge into 2026 after record-breaking year

BOJ minions getting direction from Japan’s new prime minister:

• Japan’s Takaichi faces fresh scrutiny over BOJ policy stance

• Japan considering steps to cushion economy from Iran conflict, PM Takaichi says

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions planning to keep standing by:

• German exports record sharpest decline since May 2024
• ECB in no rush even if Iran war could alter outlook: policymakers

Wall Street finished little changed as oil dropped and Middle East tensions stay in focus

• Wall St closes mixed on ramped-up Middle East tensions

Wednesday, 11 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices fall as WSJ says IEA proposes largest oil stock release ever

• US to release 172 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserve
• US gasoline prices surpass $3.50 a gallon at the pumps as Iran war rages on

Headline CPI holds at +2.4% Y/Y in February, as expected, still above Fed target

• US consumer prices rose 0.3% in February as cost of gasoline increased
• US Core CPI Tumbles To Slowest In 4 Years (Before Iran-Triggered Oil Spike)

Campbell’s cuts annual forecasts as demand for pretzels, chips softens

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s February auto sales slide due to holidays; Iran war casts pall over exports
• China lifts military budget to modernize weapons, defence technology

BOJ minions see cooling inflation, will hike Japan’s interest rates no matter what:

• Japan’s wholesale inflation cools, but oil shock from Iran war threatens rebound
• BOJ to raise interest rates next quarter with expectations unchanged by Middle East war

ECB minions thinking about maybe hiking Eurozone interest rates if inflation shows up:

• ECB policymakers acknowledge war risk, promise to keep inflation in check

• Exclusive: ECB will react if Iran war pushes up inflation, Nagel says

Nasdaq inches up, Dow slides as oil prices rise again, retail inflation comes in-line

• S&P 500, Dow end lower as escalating Iran war sours risk appetite

Thursday, 12 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• World faces largest-ever oil supply disruption on Middle East war, IEA says

• Oil jumps 5% as Iran escalates attacks on Gulf shipping
• Brent oil closes at $100 after Iran’s new supreme leader says Strait of Hormuz must remain closed

US launches unfair-trade probes to rebuild Trump’s tariff pressure

• US trade deficit narrows in January as exports jump to record high

Fed minions still expected to cut U.S. interest rates in June 2026, thinking about making bank capital requirements less restrictive:

• Fed to cut rates in June, economists still say, despite war inflation risks

• Wall Street brokerages expect Fed rate cuts in mid 2026; Goldman shifts to September

US Fed’s Bowman unveils relaxed bank capital rules

BOJ minions getting excited to hike Japan’s interest rates again:

• Iran war may embolden BOJ’s hawkish push, despite growth risks

ECB minions say they can manage surge in oil prices better than they did four years ago:

• Iran oil shock prompts ECB hawks to seek 2021/22 rematch

• ECB’s Schnabel warns of scars from post-pandemic inflation spike

EU urges US to view it as ally in tackling overcapacity, not source of problem

U.S. stocks sink as war against Iran intensifies, Brent settles above $100/bbl

• Wall St ends sharply lower as intensifying Iran war, soaring crude prompt selloff

Friday, 13 March 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US fourth-quarter GDP growth revised down to 0.7%

• VIEW PCE inflation report meets expectations, GDP is soft; markets rally
• Recession odds climb as Middle East conflict escalates, according to prediction markets

US opens new unfair trade practices probes of 60 countries over forced labor

Trump orders agencies to cut red tape on homebuilding, mortgages

Fed minions expected to push off next rate cuts:

• Traders bet on Fed rate cut by September

Bigger trouble, less stimulus developing in China:

• Chinese new loans slump more than expected as weak demand persists

• China February new loans drop to 900 billion yuan, miss forecasts

China to tighten oversight of local government subsidies

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions expected to leave Eurozone interest rates alone:

• Euro zone industry takes a hit even before high energy costs bite
• Inflation threats heat up but ECB to keep rates on ice this year, say economists

Wall Street ended lower as investors assessed PCE inflation and GDP data

• Wall Street closes lower, posts weekly loss as war on Iran fuels inflation worries

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool forecast of real GDP growth in 2026-Q1 jumped to +2.7%, rebounding from the +2.1% growth anticipated a week earlier.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a suit-wearing Wall Street bull and bear who react to a news ticker that says ‘IRAN WAR’ and ‘OIL PRICE SPIKE’ and ‘RATE CUTS DELAYED’ by screaming”.