S&P 500 Bulls Rattled by Cost to Build-Out AI

Wall Street bulls got something of a scare in the first trading week of February 2026. After starting the week strong, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) got clobbered between Tuesday and Thursday before rebounding to end the week at 6,932.30, up 0.24% from where it closed out the final trading week of January 2026.

What clobbered the market in the middle of the week was tightly targeted on companies making big capital expenditures in building out their investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL) led the market down early in the week after revealing they were doubling their capital expenditures to $185 billion to support building their AI systems. That was followed up by Amazon’s announcement they plan to spend $200 billion this year on its AI infrastructure.

Also during the week, privately held Anthropic unveiled a new generation of its Claude AI system tailored to automate the generation of computer code. That development prompted investors to not just beat the hell out of software development companies but also financial firms that have made large investments in them.

That downward action was mitigated by the end of the week as investors rotated toward dividend paying firms, benefitting the Dow Jones Industrials, which broke through the 50,000 mark.

Overall, the combination of things going on within the S&P 500 was enough to keep it on track with the dividend futures-based model‘s trajectory associated with investors focusing on the upcoming quarter of 2026-Q2. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the S&P 500 has kept within a few percent of that projected level.

Although we’ve already covered the week’s biggest market-moving news, there was more that investors absorbed. Here are those additional headlines:

Monday, 2 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil falls 5% on US-Iran de-escalation

• OPEC+ agrees in principle to keep planned pause in oil output hikes for March, sources say

Next Fed minion boss wants to shake things up at Fed:

• Warsh ‘regime change’ faces steep hurdles at sprawling US central bank

• Fed chair nominee Warsh may want smaller Fed holdings, but that’s not easy to do

Bigger stimulus developing in China:

• China’s measures to shore up its indebted property sector
• China new home prices rise in January as government signals support, private survey says

Growth signs developing in Japan:

• Japan’s factory activity growth hits near 3-1/2-year peak, PMI shows

Less bad, but still bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone factory activity contracts in January but output rebounds, PMI shows
• Euro zone firms see deteriorating profits, ECB survey shows

S&P 500 flirts with record high; chipmakers and small caps jump

• Slump in commodities rattles global markets

• Gold, silver fall further as CME margin hike stokes selling

Bitcoin falls below $80,000, continuing decline as liquidity worries mount

Tuesday, 3 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• India-US trade deal slashes tariffs; seen lifting exports, market sentiment

• US to cut tariffs on India to 18%, India agrees to end Russian oil purchases
• India to ramp up purchases of US oil, arms, aircraft

Oil steadies as investors weigh supply, possible US-Iran de-escalation

• US refiners struggle to absorb sudden surge in Venezuelan oil imports

Investors ramp up bets on steeper yield curve under Warsh-led Fed

US homebuilders working on plan to develop as many as 1 million ‘Trump Homes,’ Bloomberg News reports

Fed minions say predicting the future is hard:

• Fed’s Barkin says hard to know how long higher productivity will last
• Fed’s Miran tells Fox Business he still wants rate cuts this year

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan PM’s idle yen comments send finance bureaucrats scrambling

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone banks tightening access to business credit, ECB survey shows

U.S. stocks finish lower as Wall Street sells tech despite positive Q4 results and a gold rebound

• Wall Street ends sharply down as traders fret about AI disruption
• Gold heads for biggest daily gain since 2008 as investors step in after steep selloff
• Walmart hits $1 trillion market value, joins club dominated by Big Tech giants

Wednesday, 4 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices climb 3% on report US officials reject Iran’s request to change location of talks
• US services sector steady in January, supply constraints from AI data centers feared
• Trump says ‘not much’ doubt interest rates will be lowered, in NBC interview

• US Treasury’s Bessent says he was wrong when he said tariffs could be inflationary

Fed minions told they lost trust of Americans, new minion stops working second job:

• Bessent: Fed lost trust of American people over inflation, threatening independence
• Fed Governor Miran quits White House job

Bigger stimulus developing in China, signs of growth:

• Automakers in China roll-out longer-term financing plans to spur demand
• China services activity picks up in January, hiring hits 6 month high, survey shows

BOJ minions wish new Japan PM “good luck with that”, growth signs develop in Japan:

• Exclusive: BOJ won’t come to the rescue of a Takaichi-driven bond rout

• BOJ debated risk of being ‘behind the curve’ on inflation, January summary shows

Japan’s services activity hits fastest growth in nearly a year, PMI shows

Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone:

• Euro zone economic momentum wanes further in January, PMI shows
• Euro zone inflation dips in January as soft patch begins

Nasdaq, S&P 500 extend losses amid suffering tech trade, weak jobs data

• Wall Street ends down as AI worries slam tech stocks

• US tech stocks hit with fresh wave of selling as chipmaker AMD tumbles

• How Anthropic achieved AI coding breakthroughs — and rattled business
• Nvidia’s Huang dismisses fears AI will replace software tools

Google Goes Wild After Hours After Beating Estimates, Projecting Mindblowing CapEx

Thursday, 5 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil falls more than 1% on easing supply concerns after US, Iran agree to talks
• US job openings drop to more than five-year low in December

Fed minions thinking about doing nothing with interest rates, even though they understand their policy is restrictive:

• Fed’s Cook says it’s time to ‘wait and see’ on rates
• Fed’s Cook says policy rate ‘ever so mildly’ restrictive

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China faces higher prices for further U.S. soybean buys to please Trump

JapanGov minion starting to think fiscal discipline might be important:

• Japan PM Takaichi’s reflationist aide calls for fiscal discipline

ECB minions do nothing with Eurozone interest rates, as expected. Also say they’re okay with weaker US dollar:

• ECB keeps rates unchanged, signal comfort with dollar weakness

Wall Street sells off due to AI capex fears and disappointing jobs data

• Wall Street ends sharply down as AI worries weigh

• Google Goes Wild After Hours After Beating Estimates, Projecting Mindblowing CapEx
• Amazon sees 50% boost to capital spending this year; shares tumble

Silver tumbles, oil drops in commodity sell-off

Friday, 6 February 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices stable after U.S. and Iran hold nuclear talks
• Interest rate outlook comes under scrutiny next week with jobs, inflation data on deck
• Anthropic’s breakout moment: how Claude cracked AI for business

Fed minions see weak labor market as giving room for rate cuts:

• Exclusive: Fed’s Daly sees labor market vulnerabilities, room to cut interest rates

• Fed’s Daly says job market feels ‘precarious,’ eyes rate cuts

Fed’s Jefferson cautiously optimistic about economy, sees job market stabilizing, inflation falling

Bigger trouble developing in Japan:

• Japan’s biggest banks ready to increase JGB holdings despite growing losses
• Former Japan currency chief says FX intervention should be backed by rate hikes

ECB minions see bailouts as growth opportunity; Eurozone minions see crypto-Euro as key to their growth:

• ECB’s safety net is part of EU plan to court new allies
• Exclusive: Euro zone ministers to weigh euro-stablecoins, more joint debt issuance to boost role of euro

Dow reaches 50K, ends at record high as U.S. stocks rise on NVDA lift

• Dow closes above 50,000, Nvidia soars as traders focus on AI spending

• Nvidia leads chip stocks higher as broader market gains after software sell-off

Gold rebounds as volatility continues; exchange operator CME again raises margins

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continued projecting the Fed will keep holding the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2) when it forecasts a quarter point rate cut. The tool anticipates another quarter point reduction on 16 September (2026-Q3). The expected timing of both these projected rate cuts have held steady for the last several weeks.

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 is unchanged at +4.2%, with no updates in the last week. Updates are on tap for the upcoming week.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a young Wall Street bull who is shocked and scared after a jack-in-the-box pops open to show a bear holding a sign that says ‘AI CAPEX’”.