Kerplunk.

How much do things suck in Realtorville?

The mighty GTA real estate board (the largest in North America, by the way, with 70,000 house floggers) published its monthly stats and media release this morning. At just 104 words, it was the shortest in living memory. No quotes. No analysis. No saccharine comments about the ethical, moral and religious benefits of home ownership. No sunny words on the bustling spring season ahead.

Nope. Just this:

There were 3,082 home sales reported in January 2026 – down by 19.3 per cent compared to January 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 10,774 – down by 13.3 per cent yearover-year.
The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite benchmark was down by eight per cent year-over-year in January 2026. The average selling price, at $973,289, was down by 6.5 per cent compared to January 2025.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2026 home sales were down month-over-month compared to December 2025, while new listings were up slightly. Both the MLS® HPI composite and average price trended lower compared to December.

Last January it was a radically different story as Trump was coming into office and Canada changing leadership. “A growing number of homebuyers will take advantage of lower borrowing costs as we move toward the 2025 spring market,” the cartel stated, “resulting in increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025. However, the positive impact of lower mortgage rates could be reduced, at least temporarily, by the negative impact of trade disruptions on the economy and consumer confidence,”

We know now that the hiccup wasn’t temporary. And there was no spring rush. Not in the country’s biggest market or beyond. Now everyone is wondering where this may end.

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, MLS

The average detached 416 house has been a long-standing barometer of market strength, buyer interest and overall momentum. This now sits at $1.541 million. Yes, it’s stupid expensive, but a major decline from the $2.073 the same digs commanded exactly three years ago.

The reduction amounts to $532,000, or 25.6%. This puts the magnitude of the drop close to the all-time multi-year plop of 32% experienced thirty years ago – which then took more than a decade to recover.

Meanwhile realtors across the country are feeling the same pain (70,000 agents + 3,000 monthly sales = misery). Sales last month in Vancouver fell 28.5%. In Calgary they crashed 15%. In Victoria there were 19.7% fewer deals.

Legions of sellers have pulled their listings after months of showings, but no greater fools. Odds are they will come flooding back on in March and April as the better weather beckons. Meanwhile the Bank of Canada has made it clear interest rates are not about to plunge. Unemployment has been sneaking higher. Immigration levels have been trimmed bigly. The federal government is shedding a ton of employees. And trade uncertainty is likely to be ratcheted higher as the Canada-US-other guys agreement comes up for renegotiation this summer. Meanwhile Trump becomes a little more unhinged weekly and seems intent on casting doubts on the results of the midterm elections that are still eight months away (which he will lose, unless he cheats).

In short, consumers are a tad too freaked to be buying real estate. A few days ago we shared the latest new-build numbers with you. Quelle mess!

This is no market in which to try and sell a property, unless you enjoy rejection. It’s a great time for buyers with courage and cash. Yes, values can (and probably will) average lower. But there are many distressed vendors out there for pleasurable plundering. This has turned into a race to the bottom.

But where is that?

About the picture: “I read your blog daily and absolutely love it and learn a lot from you,” writes Nathan, in Ontario (where it snows every day).  “Here are a few pictures of Athena, feel free to use whichever you like if you’d like to use for your blog covers.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.