Global and U.S. Economic Agenda — February 11, 2026 (Gold & Silver Focus)

GLOBAL AND U.S. ECONOMIC AGENDA — FEBRUARY 11, 2026 (Gold & Silver Focus)

Precious Metals Markets: Gold & Silver Update (Today)
Gold and silver prices climbed on Wednesday as global markets reacted to softer U.S. economic data and expectations for a more relaxed monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold rose about 0.7% to $5,057 per ounce, with U.S. gold futures for April delivery up around 1% to $5,081, reflecting strengthening safe-haven demand. Spot silver jumped over 2% to $82.56 per ounce, rebounding after recent volatility and losses. The rise in precious metals comes as U.S. Treasury yields fell after disappointing retail sales figures for December signaled slowing consumer demand and heightened prospects for Fed rate cuts later this year. Analysts now anticipate at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with June widely considered a likely starting point, though Fed officials are publicly cautious about immediate policy shifts. Eyes are trained on key January payroll numbers and Friday’s inflation report, which could further influence market pricing of Fed rate expectations and, by extension, bullion demand.

Precious metals ETFs also registered strong inflows, with gold and silver ETF assets rising as traders positioned for easier U.S. monetary policy. Several flagship gold ETFs saw gains up to 5%, while silver ETF inflows surged significantly on the same macro cues. Investors are favoring disciplined, diversified allocation strategies rather than short-term speculation as price swings remain elevated. Growth concerns in the U.S. and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to underpin safe-haven demand for bullion.

According to recent price data, gold has hovered above the $5,060 per ounce mark, near multi-week highs, supported by expectations of a Fed tilt toward a more accommodative stance following weak consumer spending and cooling GDP indicators. Gold’s price gain over the past month exceeds 10%, and the metal remains up sharply from last year, underlining the structural strength of bullion markets amid economic uncertainty and persistent central bank buying.

Broad Market Themes Affecting Precious Metals
The recent price strength in gold and silver reflects broader market dynamics beyond raw price moves. Lingering global economic uncertainty, shifting demand away from dollar-denominated assets, central bank purchases, and geopolitical risk continue to drive investor interest in safe-haven metals. A Reuters survey of analysts shows that 2026 gold forecasts have risen significantly, with median predictions near multi-year highs due to geopolitical tensions, strong central bank demand, and concerns over U.S. fiscal policy and dollar strength. Despite recent correction episodes, most analysts still see a sustained bullish backdrop for gold and a constructive outlook for silver, though volatility—especially in silver—remains pronounced.

Some market warnings have emerged about the speculative nature of the recent precious metals rally. Sharp rallies and large fluctuations in gold and silver prices have drawn comparisons to speculative excesses in other asset classes, highlighting the risk of elevated leverage and rapid inflows followed by sudden retracements. Nonetheless, long-term investors with diversified mandates often view these pullbacks as normal within a broader accumulation trend driven by systemic macroeconomic risks.

U.S. Economic Data Driving Market Sentiment
The U.S. economic calendar remains focal for markets this week. December retail sales came in weaker than expected, adding to signals of slowing consumer demand. Barring strong labor data or inflation surprises, investors have increasingly priced in the possibility of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year—a driver of higher gold and silver prices. Upcoming reports on non-farm payrolls and the consumer price index (CPI) will be critical in shaping market expectations of monetary policy.

Across major U.S. stock indexes, there are signs of diverging risk sentiment. While technology shares have shown relative resilience with some rallies led by earnings momentum, broader market indices are trading with caution amid uncertainty over growth prospects, real income trends, and trading patterns tied to monetary policy outlooks. Persistent high consumer payment delinquency rates are also cited in domestic reports as evidence of pressure on household finances, further influencing economic forecasts and market pricing.

Global Economic Drivers and Policy Developments
Internationally, geopolitical tensions and policy shifts are influencing economic risk pricing. The U.S. recently advanced a proposal for a critical minerals trading alliance aimed at stabilizing supply chains for essential industrial components, a strategic move in response to competitive pressure from China and global production challenges. The alliance would involve price floors, supply agreements, and incentives to boost domestic mining investment—factors that also affect industrial metals markets and broader commodity pricing.

Equity markets in Asia and Europe show mixed performance, with regional indices benefiting from localized political stability and investment sentiment in some economies, while risk assets elsewhere remain sensitive to inflation data and trade policy outcomes. Commodity prices, including crude oil benchmarks, are monitoring inventory changes and demand signals for directional cues.

Currency and Dollar Dynamics
The U.S. dollar has been under pressure in recent trading as currency markets respond to softer macro data and shifting interest rate expectations. A weaker dollar tends to support commodity prices, including gold and silver, as bullion becomes relatively more attractive for non-dollar holders and institutional portfolios seeking hard asset diversification. However, currency volatility also adds complexity to multi-asset risk management strategies.

Inflation, Labor Markets & Central Bank Outlook
Inflation readings and labor market data due later this week will be decisive for both U.S. monetary policy and global risk appetite. Softer CPI or unexpected shocks in employment metrics could accelerate rate-cut pricing and support further moves in precious metals and risk assets. Conversely, strong inflation persistence or robust job growth may anchor central bank policy and reduce immediate expectations for easing.

SUMMARY:
• Gold & silver prices are rising amid weaker U.S. data and market pricing of multiple Fed rate cuts.
• ETFs in precious metals show significant inflows as investors reposition for easing policy.
• Market uncertainty, central bank demand, and geopolitical risks are structural drivers.
• Upcoming U.S. jobs and inflation data will be key catalysts.
• Dollar weakness supports commodity prices, but global equity strength at times dampens safe-haven demand.