Chill

Irony. The world is awash in it.

An ex-prince gets pinched in Britain because he traded docs-for-sex with Epstein, but senior US officials with heavy Jeffrey links just wink and carry on. Meanwhile Trump showcases his Board of Peace while moving 13 destroyers, two aircraft carriers and thousands of troops into position to attack Iran. It would be the seventh time in a year the US has whacked or invaded another country. Peace, baby.

And here at home 87% of Conservative delegates just voted to support the leader of a party that yesterday suffered an MP defection. The third one in nine months. It’s historic. There’s no coming back for Pierre Poilievre, now that the Libs have turned into PCs.

What does all this political, frisky, military and federal stuff have to do with everyday life? The economy? Real estate? Markets?

Lots, of course.

The perception is growing that we’re in a time of structural change, making things dangerous. Investors who have fled equity-based ETFs to seek a safe haven elsewhere have instead walked into a storm. Precious metals prices have been volatile. Crypto and bitcoin have been a disaster. Private equity deals have been unwinding. And we all know ‘safe’ bank instruments like high-yield savings accounts and GICs can’t even keep pace with inflation.

As for real estate, we also know what wide-spread heebie-jeebies have done. It’s a mess.

Scotia economists say of the 31 Canadian markets they track, 29 are in sales decline. Conditions are cooling in 26 of them. “Housing conditions are still relatively weak nationally and across regions, still affected by the uncertainty from global trade tensions and challenging affordability conditions for potential buyers,” says the bank.

But here’s the irony part: “We still expect the housing market to recover, along with the expected near-term strengthening in economic and income growth, and with lagging effects from the past decline in mortgage rates since about mid-2024.” That recovery, it adds, will be evident before the end of 2026.

This all feeds into our recent theme: these are not the end times, as so many kiddos believe. Yes, the world has a lot of debt (not new). And it’s true that globalization has been clashing with political leaders who want tribalism and protectionism. But they won’t last. Also true is that tech advances, mostly AI, will throw a lot of people out work. But that brings more productivity and wealth.

Financial markets have twitchy noses and can smell real danger a long ways off. They fear inflation, deflation, recession, stagflation, disruption and speculation. They want stability, transparency and growth. So the doomers have to ask why investors have happily ignored that stuff that’s kept young, failed homebuyers quaking.

This is not to argue real estate is affordable. Or world peace is at hand. Or that whole categories of jobs won’t vanish in the next decade. Without a doubt, generational disruption and change are at hand.

But that’s hardly new.

When my father was a child there was a horse-dawn stagecoach providing transport between his Ontario village and the city. When I was a kid there were nuclear missiles in Cuba, phones had wires and men died three years after retiring. Change works. It’s life. Get over it.

The next three years promise far more than the last one just delivered. Don’t freak. Focus on the personal actions you can take. Leave the geopolitics to CNN. Stay invested. Stay calm. Stay hopeful.

Because, as you will discover, it’s not different this time.

About the picture: “Thought you might enjoy a snowy pic of our Granddog, a Korean village dog, Scout in the snow in Powell River, BC,” writes Bonnie. “Thanks for all your insights,  humour and dog pics.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/02/19/chill-14/