A bridge too far

The hits keep coming.

Days ago it was planes. Trump would act to crush our aviation industry.

This week it’s bridges. In fact, THE bridge – the Gordie Howe $6 billion masterpiece which leaps over the Detroit River and is destined to be the busiest land crossing point in North America.

Maybe. Unless Trump does what he just said, and blocks access to it.

By the way, you paid for that thing. Canadian taxpayers have footed the entire bill, providing a secure alternative to the existing Ambassador Bridge, which is 100 years old and owned by a Michigan billionaire.

Can the US president do that?

Technically, no. Practically, of course. Trump does what he wants because he has, like a true authoritarian, purged every corner of the public administration.

Now if you don’t drive a semi, own an expediter or shuttle physical stuff between Canada and America, why would you care about a shiny, new, as-yet-unopened bridge?

Because it’s one more thing. Another hit. Yet more negative, scary news. Cars. Planes. Lumber. Steel. A bridge. A new 100% tariff because we’re letting Chinese EVs into the country. Carney talked to the president today about this lunacy. Results inconclusive. It’s like feeding an Internet troll.

Well, this matters since all these whacks on Canada are cumulative. The narrative has been established that, kinda like Greenland but with Drake (who we are willing to trade), we’re under assault. It’s unsettling. It is impacting consumer confidence while Trump-related job losses are eating at employment. Oh yeah, and Pierre Poilievre is telling people Canada is broken. Just what we need.

The street-level result is the worst housing market in living memory. January was a disaster right across the country, even in places (like Montreal) where the lousy news had not yet impacted. It’s worth remembering that 2026 was supposed to be an okay year after a semi-crappy 2025. Interest rates have stabilized. Real estate financing costs have dropped by 24% in the past year. House prices are still melting down – even in the GTA where we’ve already seen a 26% crumble from the 2022 apex.

Tons of properties are available which means buyers have time and choice on their side. No bidding wars. Few multiple offers. No bully bids. Nary a blind auction. No offer days. Scads of relistings and terminations in what’s turned into the longest, deepest buyer’s market in three decades.

Meanwhile, as we’ve chronicled, the new-build sector looks like a dead insect. House sales in the GTA, for example, dropped 82% below the ten-year average last month. Nobody is buying. There are now 20,849 units available. Supply has totally overwhelmed demand for product that cannot fall much more in price without bankrupting the very companies offering it.

“To find a comparable collapse in new home construction, you would probably have to look back to the 1940s,” says the industry, citing this as the worst year on record. “New home construction is a cornerstone of our economy, yet it has effectively stalled.”

Industry execs seem to be throwing in the towel. Like Daniel Foch, CEO of Valery.

“There are too many headwinds — from rising delinquencies to a cooling job market — to justify unbridled optimism,” he says, in warning that there’s no great well of pent-up demand about to spill open and save the market in 2026.

The storm clouds he sees include household finances under stress, citing mortgage delinquencies and arrears. “Many who bought at ultra-low rates are struggling at renewal, and new buyers face stricter lending tests… Financial pressures are holding back demand. A market can’t mount a sustained recovery while more owners fall behind on loans and renters can’t qualify to become owners.”

Then there’s unemployment, which has been weakening on both sides of the border. Our jobless rate has only dipped because the population has started to decline and the workforce shrink a little. “The upcoming 2026 CUSMA review, for example, raises the spectre of tariff frictions that could impact Ontario’s export industries. If businesses feel unsure, hiring and income growth could falter. It’s hard to imagine a surge of buyers until people feel secure in their jobs and the economic outlook.”

Finally, the issue of demographics – addressed here a few days ago. At the same time a flood of inventory – new and resale – has emerged, the numbers of potential buyers is decreasing. Sharp new controls on immigration combined with an aging population and falling birth rate are not the things that feed real estate.

It’s not a disaster. Nobody should expect a crash. There’s too much political capital invested in housing now to let that happen.

But at the moment, it’s a bridge to nowhere.

About the picture: “Greetings from Delhi, India, Garth,” writes Heather from South Surrey. “This street dog looks very content, despite his questionable living conditions. Thanks for all you do every single day to bring sanity into our lives in this crazy, crazy world. Namaste.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/02/10/a-bridge-too-far/