S&P 500 Sees Small Decline in Week Without Major Market Moving News

After closing out the preceding week at a record high, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) clocked a new record high close of 6,977.27 on Monday, 12 January 2026 before retreating a half percent to end the week at 6,940.01, about 0.4% below its previous week’s close.

There really wasn’t any single catalyst to prompt the retreat. Instead, the general flow of news during the week was mildly negative for the outlook of large publicly traded firms, with the result being that stock prices ended the week marginally lower.

For example, inflation news during the week that was did little to influence expectations for how U.S. interest rates will change during 2026. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will hold the Federal Funds Rate steady until 17 June (2026-Q2), when it anticipates a quarter point rate cut. The tool forecasts another quarter point reduction on 28 October (2026-Q4), six weeks later than it forecast a week earlier.

Perhaps the biggest surprise during the week was President Trump putting potential new tariffs on the table on Friday, 16 January 2026 for European nations opposing U.S. negotiations to acquire the territory of Greenland from Denmark. Which considering how President Trump has transformed tariffs into a tool for the U.S.’ international diplomacy over the last year isn’t a terribly surprising development and did little to affect stock prices.

All in the all, we find the trajectory of the S&P 500 is right about in the middle of the redzone forecast range shown on the latest update of the alternative futures chart for 2026-Q1.

Here are the market moving headlines, such as they were, for the trading week ending on Friday, 16 January 2026.

Monday, 12 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump calls for one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%

• How Trump’s proposed cap on credit card rates could reshape consumer lending

Oil dips as investors assess Iran supply, Venezuelan export resumption

US to push for quicker action in reducing reliance on China for rare earths

Chief Fed minion claims to be subject of DOJ investigation:

• Trump team escalates attack on Fed’s Powell with criminal indictment threat

• Powell says Trump administration has threatened him with a criminal indictment
• Behind the Scenes Steps Tied to the Investigation of Jay Powell

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s 2025 record export surge expected to slow in December
• Xi stresses the need to win the fight against corruption in China

JapanGov minions looking to break reliance on rare earth materials from China:

• Japan sets sail on rare earth hunt as China tightens supplies

S&P 500, Dow hit closing record highs; Walmart, tech climb

• Wall Street ended higher, shrugging off concerns over Powell investigation
• Spot gold rises more than 1% to hit all-time high at $4,563.61
• Shares in US credit card issuers slide after Trump calls for 10% rate cap
• Alphabet hits $4 trillion valuation as AI refocus lifts sentiment

Tuesday, 13 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Core CPI inflation comes in slightly cooler than expected in December

• US inflation stays at 2.7% in December
• Trump says inflation data means Fed can cut interest rates

US new home sales fall marginally in October

Oil prices surge on possible Iranian supply disruption

• WTI oil discount to Brent largest in eight months as more Venezuelan crude expected in US

Current and former Fed minions back chief minion facing legal trouble, what chief Fed minion didn’t say about his legal trouble:

• Musalem says Powell video was “very clear and very direct” – MNI Webcast

• Past three Fed chairs decry ‘unprecedented’ assault by Trump on Powell

Three peculiarities about Jerome Powell’s statement

Fed minions say their monetary policy is ‘well-positioned’, not sure what to make of rising productivity in U.S.:

• Fed’s Williams says monetary policy well positioned amid a favorable outlook
• Fed officials cautious about rising productivity’s contribution to inflation fight

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Trump announces 25% tariff on countries ‘doing business’ with Iran

Wall Street ends in the red as retail inflation comes in slightly cooler, earnings fail to lift sentiment

• Wall Street falls with financials amid credit card rate plan

• Wall St slips on credit card proposal, rate bets boost gold

Wednesday, 14 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US producer prices increase moderately in November
• US banking giants reap bigger profits as borrowers seek more loans
• US existing home sales accelerate in December
• Oil climbs on concerns over potential Iranian supply disruption
• Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips

Fed minions debate when and how much to cut rates next:

• Fed’s Miran says Trump’s deregulation will help lower inflation, justifying rate cuts
• Fed’s Barkin calls December inflation data encouraging
• Fed’s Kashkari tells NYT it is ‘way too soon’ to cut rates

• Fed’s Kashkari upbeat on 2026, expects inflation to moderate

Fed’s Paulson reiterates more rate cuts could follow moderating in inflation

Trump imposes 25% tariff on imports of some advanced computing chips

Bigger trouble in the form of new U.S. tariffs developing in China:

• China’s trade ends 2025 with record $1.2 trillion surplus despite tariff jolt

• China blames US for trade imbalances as surplus hits record $1.2tn

China’s vehicle sales, exports set to cool in 2026

BOJ minions won’t fight for Powell, have bigger problems to deal with:

• BOJ puts self defense ahead of solidarity with Fed’s Powell
• Japan’s Takaichi to call snap election

• Yen tumbles and Japan stocks soar as election talk reignites ‘Takaichi trade’

Wall Street ends lower, led by drop in Nasdaq, with tech, banks falling

• Big Tech stocks fall as broader market sees red
• Gold, silver and copper prices hit new highs as global tensions mount

Thursday, 15 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil settles down 4% as Trump comments ease Iranian supply concerns
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage drops to near 3-1/2-year low of 6.06%
• US reaches trade deal with Taiwan that could boost US chipmakers
• Trump says no critical minerals tariffs for now, will seek overseas supplies
• US farm economy shows widening cracks as costs rise, jobs vanish

Fed minions say they are fighting inflation pretty darn well:

• Goolsbee tells CNBC lowering inflation is Fed’s main job
• Fed’s Daly: policy in good place, calibration should be deliberate
• Fed’s Schmid: Cutting rates could make inflation worse

BOJ minions game-planning next rate hikes, on guard against collapse in Japan’s currency:

• BOJ to raise rates again to 1% or higher by end-September, possibly by July
• Fears of BoJ intervention keeps dollar/yen below 160

• Bessent urges ‘sound’ BOJ policy to address excess FX volatility

ECB minions cooperating with Fed minions, say their banking rules are right but need to be balanced, while Germany’s economy may have hit bottom in the Eurozone:

• ECB’s de Guindos: Fed cooperation is ‘business as usual’
• ECB’s de Guindos says bank valuations show supervisory approach is right

• ECB’s De Guindos says “balanced” approach needed on Basel 3 bank rules

German economy breaks 2-year slide with modest 2025 growth

Wall Street ended higher as chip stocks climbed and Trump paused critical mineral tariffs

• Wall Street ends up as banks gain following results; chips rally with TSMC

• TSMC smashes forecasts with record profit, flags more US factories

Friday, 16 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices settle up as US begins holiday weekend
• “Emergency Intervention”: Trump To Cap Residential Electric Bills By Forcing Tech Giants To Pay For Soaring Power Costs

• White House seeks emergency power auction for largest US electric grid

Trump Says Wants To Keep “Hassett Where He Is” Sending Warsh Fed Chair Odds Soaring; Gold Slides

Fed minions keep claiming they’ve achieved the perfect monetary policy for 2026′s economy, some worry rate cuts will be needed to boost jobs:

• Fed’s Jefferson says current policy stance ‘well positioned’
• Fed should be ready to cut rates again amid job market risks, Bowman says

Bigger carbon dioxide emissions developing in China:

• China Leads Global Coal Power Additions Despite Renewables Push

BOJ minions thinking about surprising markets by hiking Japan’s interest rates sooner:

• Exclusive: Some in BOJ see scope to raise rates sooner than markets expect

U.S. stocks post marginal losses, notch weekly decline

• Wall Street ends flat ahead of long weekend; S&P 500 down for week

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow toolestimates real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 ticked up to +5.3% from the +5.1% growth it was anticipating on 9 January 2026.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear watching the news and worrying over it”.