Neverendum

Five years ago today a MAGA mob stormed the US capital building to hang the VP (poor Mike Pence), prevent the inauguration of a new president and to keep Donald Trump in office.

Meanwhile, in Vancouver, people shrugged and bought properties. Lots of them. In January of 2020 detached home sales surged almost 30% from the previous year. The Washington riot had no effect on house horniness, and we were still several months away from anyone knowing what “Covid” meant.

By the way, the average Van detached was changing hands for $1,431,200.

Now, five years later, Trump is president again. All the rioters – even those who hurt cops and carried weapons – are pardoned. The US just invaded another country, killed people and removed its head of state. The pandemic ended up killing 64,500 Canadians – and people are still buying Vancouver real estate. Well, not as many. Sales of detached homes last month dropped almost 13%, and prices lost more than 5%.

Moral: there’s always stuff to worry about. And Canadians keep walking into mortgages. However, without a doubt, 2025 turned into a watershed year in which confidence in real estate was seriously shaken. But not crushed.

And this is interesting – the average YVR detached is now worth $1,879,800. That’s a gain of $448,600 in five years, or 31%. The annual increase is just over 6% – for a period which included some of the most FOMO-infused years ever.

In contrast the TSX climbed from 17,105 on this day half a decade ago to 32,282 as I write this. That’s a gain of 88.72%, or a yearly advance of 17.8%. And if you owned a Bay Street ETF there was no property tax to pay, no home insurance premium, no condo fees, no shingles to replace, no mortgage payments to make, no realtor commission and you could sell a hunk, large or small, in two seconds. If owned in an RRSP or TFSA, also zero tax to pay on the windfall.

Well, we still can’t help ourselves.

Despite the immense costs of home ownership, the high bar to entry, the massive cost of financing and the unjustifiable fees and taxes for both buying and selling, the Canadian real estate market has not collapsed and prices have not plunged.

This week comes evidence of the current state, as we enter 2026 with a return to Yankee imperialism and a documented American pledge to dominate the Western Hemisphere. (Hey, wait a minute… that includes us…)

In the Lower Mainland, sales finished 2025 down 10%, and while this marked the lowest annual level in more than twenty years, prices have barely budged (down about 4%) over the past year and are – as mentioned above – 33% higher than sixty months ago.

So, realtors are strongly suggesting that This Is The Bottom. Seriously, kids. We mean it this time. “With lower prices, lower borrowing costs, and plenty of inventory to choose from, homebuyers in 2026 are starting the year with favorable conditions.”

Across the ditch in Victoria December sales slumped 12.8% from year-ago levels last month, and even more when compared to the month prior, while prices were static. The real estate board slapped a lot of lipstick on this porker suggesting, again, it’s uppa, uppa from here.

“Despite global economic uncertainty, property sales in the Victoria market were steady and pricing remained relatively balanced. One of the most significant factors in 2025 was the amount of available inventory. We saw the second highest number on record of new listings enter the market. The ample inventory was good news for sellers and for the stability of our market. Buyers had more choice and time to make decisions, while sellers benefitted from clearer expectations around pricing and timelines.”

Over in Calgary sales were off 14% in December and a percentage point more for the entire year. As for prices, the benchmark dropped just 2.4% over 2025. Supply erupted during the year, creating oodles of inventory and favouring buyers, says the local realtor chief wizard. In all, about 40,000 properties came to market and roughly 25,000 of those found buyers.

Meanwhile in the country’s second-largest property market, Montreal, December sales were off a modest 10%, but buyers have been happy to shell out larger amounts to get a home. The median price has increased by a whopping 8%, while the time it takes to flog a property has dropped.

Toronto? The GTA?

Realtors there (all 70,000 of them) are still counting. News is expected tomorrow. The expectation is for a double-digit drop in sales, a single-digit decline in the average price and two scoops of optimism. Also this week, the feds in Ottawa confirm that the federal government will be chopping its taxes on new-builds, going ahead with increased withdrawal limits for the RRSP Home Buyer’s Plan and extending those mortgage amortizations to thirty years.

“Budget 2025 is putting shovels in the ground – building homes, strengthening communities, and advancing the big projects that power our economy,” says Poor Gregor Rovertson, our housing czar. “We’re choosing ambition for Canada, and that choice will carry us forward for decades to come.”

And so governments at all levels continuously prime the pump, promote housing policies and, by extension, tell every young couple they should, become indentured homeowners.

Sales may waver. Prices hardly do. There are always greater fools.

About the picture: “Hey Garth,  well the roller coaster of life is ready for the 2026 ride.  Hope all is well!” writes GTony, in Thailand. “Saw this doggo on the sunset walk tonight on Koh Tao,  living his best beach life ”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/01/06/neverendum/