¡Ay, caramba!

Long ago (last Wednesday), a wise man with chiseled abs (me) wrote these words to live by as the calendar flipped to 2026.

“Will it be a happy new year?

“Only if you make it so. There’s nothing one can do about the world, only personal circumstances. And this flows from decisions.

“So getting married, buying a house, investing in Nvidia, having a baby, moving to Saint John, signing up for law school, buying a diner, understanding AI, having a vasectomy, adopting a Corgi, being elected, learning French or scoring a good job because you bought new pants and actually went downtown for an interview – that stuff matters. More than tariffs, Trump, wars, Carney, inflation, the central bank or fiscal policy.

“Worry about what you can change. Then change it. That’s the path to satisfaction. Perhaps joy, even.”

Days later, in a major military operation, the rogue US president kidnapped the leader of Venezuela, who now sits in a NYC jail. America says it “will run” that country, which is what Putin wants for Ukraine. Trump made it clear on Saturday this is all about oil, not drugs. And there are zero details on how Washington will control a nation of thirty million on another continent without occupying it. People also wonder how the ‘America First’ president who campaigned on US isolationism turned into this guy.

By the way, Trump also said on Saturday that maybe Greenland, Panama and Canada should likewise be American protectorates. Canada, sheesh. Can you imagine Mark Carney doing a perp walk into the Brooklyn Detention Centre?

Well, what happens next? How much should you worry?

Financial futures will give an indication later today. Oil doesn’t trade on Sunday, but the sentiment seems to be calm. Bitcoin, however, leapt more than 1%. Some analysts expect a small surge in gold (to $4,360 US) and silver (to $78 US) tomorrow, plus a modest rise in crude and copper.

Beyond the immediate response (which we should all ignore) the question is what American imperialism, expansion, aggression and bullying will mean in the months and years to come. What about oil and Canada? Venezuela has 303 billion barrels in the ground – the biggest pot in the world (17% of global reserves). The industry there has deteriorated since being nationalized. So, will Trump’s moves allow US investors to return, restore production and flood the States with cheap crude?

Maybe. In which case Canadians would find our WCS (the stuff Alberta pumps) selling for less. That could make a new pipe to the BC coast, to feed Asian markets, seriously valuable. Or it could rob the country of valuable export dollars and stall everything. And would Trump, now gassed up on saucy Venezuelan energy, use this as a stick to beat us down in trade talks?

Or maybe a resistance movement will emerge against the gringos, so American forces must be deployed into the cities, jungles and mountains of South America. Perhaps voters will trounce Trump this November, so he’s forced by Congress to retreat. Then again, Americans could rally to his side on the promise of cheap gas and greater glory.

The point: we dunno. You dunno. The know-everything economists and experts dunno.

It will take a decade and about a hundred billion dollars to rebuild the oil industry that Caracas has let slide. The country’s production has crashed from 3.5 million daily barrels to just over a million. And the oil dudes are not going to make that investment until stability breaks out, and proves durable. Meanwhile did the US taking over a country just open the door for China to snatch Taiwan? And isn’t that where most of the chips America runs on are manufactured? Does that mean a war there, too?

By the way, how can an occupying power just take another nation’s natural resources from its citizens and rightful owners, sell it on the open market and keep the cash? When the biggest, richest country in the world does that, don’t we have carte blanche for everyone else to go mental?

See what I mean? It’s impossible to foresee outcomes and betting on them. So don’t try. The odds of making bad choices are huge.

These are the days to mitigate risk and stay on track with investments that are balanced between safe and growth assets, diversified among many sectors, companies and industries and exposed to the entire world, not just your home country or the US colossus. It’s January, so time to chunk money into tax-shelters and registered accounts. Don’t freak out and surrender to GICs or ‘high-interest’ savings accounts that will lose to inflation and taxes. Set your personal goals (buy a house, marry your sweetie, have a kid, fund college, get a Chow) and work towards those.

World peace is not the goal. Yours is.

About the picture: “While in Ireland last fall,” writes Davis from Nanaimo, “I snapped this photo of a dog walker in period costume leading five Irish wolfhounds along a Dublin street. Best wishes!”

To be in touch or sed a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/01/04/ay-caramba/