The year of RTO

The dude down the street with the Florida condo is having another moment.

“Number three,” he told me as we discussed his woes. “Three sales, then three walks. And each time the damn place is worth less.” Another offer failed to close, with a buyer reaching the same conclusion. Wait. Real estate will cost even less in the months to come. It’s a classic example of how deflation works.

This post is not about Florida condos – a massive troubled asset class – but they provide some insight on what happens when WFH fails. As major US corps and public employers call workers back to the office, the pandemic real estate bubble is losing air fast. Property values are tanking in sunbelt locations were remote workers fled during Covid, when everybody believed office-based employment would never again be a thing.

But they were wrong. It’s back. And bad housing decisions are coming home to roost.

Prices in popular Florica locations have declined about 8% in the past year. Sales have absolutely tanked. Listings are at historic levels. And while there are lots of reasons – soaring insurance premiums, special assessment, surging condo fees and fingerprinting of snowbird Canadian owners – realtors say the death of WFH is probably the biggest factor.

For example, prices have been slashed for more than 50% of all the homes currently on the market in the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area. That’s more than in any other major US market.

And is this seller malaise coming north?

Of course it is. As predicted on a certain pathetic blog four years ago. WFH can’t last for a majority of people, because most humans are disorganized, slothful, opportunistic, undisciplined and entitled. They want to be paid like a full-time employee, but work when they feel like it. And this is a reality few organizations can tolerate.

Wall Street folks are back in their cubes. In Canada, RBC, BeeMo and Scotia have all moved to a four-day-a-week schedule this year. The reasons are simple. People like hybrid work because they can goof off at will, save money by not buying new clothes or gas, go shopping on Tuesday at 11 am and pick up their kids at three. Companies are the opposite – where collaboration matters, face-to-face communication leads to better outcomes, where a corporate culture can be shared and competitive pressures better addressed.

In Ontario the premier has told workers to get their tails back into the office on a full-time basis. This was the decree recently handed down:

“As the government delivers on our plan to protect Ontario, we will continue to drive public service excellence for the people of Ontario. Effective January 5, 2026, the Ontario Public Service and its provincial agencies, boards and commission public bodies will return to the office full time.

“The government has been closely monitoring the evolution of in-workplace standards for public and private sector organizations. The return to a five days per week in-workplace standard represents the current workforce landscape in the province and it reinforces our commitment to reflecting the people and businesses we serve across Ontario.”

What about the country’s largest employer – the feds? Is that Bad Banker about to force 350,000 civil servants back into the office after five long years of screwing around with failed hybrid models, loss of efficiency, deteriorated customer service and questionable personal hygiene?

Mais oui, apparently. A single slide from a PowerPoint presentation leaked from the Treasury Board (in charge of personnel) a couple of weeks ago suggesting five-day-a-week work might be coming back to Mark Carney’s Ottawa by 2027, to restore productivity – has caused panic.

Said the union (Public Service Alliance of Canada) predictably: “this is reckless, costly and completely out of touch.” Civil service unions are moaning about longer travel times, strained transit, higher out-of-pocket costs and a fear of losing family and personal flexibility. Yes, all those things that differentiate ‘work’ from ‘not work’.

But this is inevitable. The WFH revolution is over for the bulk of people. Humans will come together to accomplish things collectively for the same reasons they always have. It gets stuff done. It allows supervision, training, mentoring and cooperation. Besides, employers – private or public – have an obligation to investors, owners and customers to be as cost-efficient as possible. Paying employees to bathe the dog or mistakenly believe a Zoom call is the same as sitting with a client is so 2021.

In short, you can add RTO to the list of reasons real estate – especially in Bunnypatch – has not yet reached its zenith of decline.

This Christmas, better ask for some new pants.

About the picture: “Thank you for daily injections of sanity in this crazy world,” writes Anton. “This is Loki, the best dog on the block. He traveled with us all around East Coast – from Saint John’s to Ingonish to Lunenburg to PEI to Saint Andrews and Quebec City. But his home base is in GTA where he puts smiles on the faces of people we meet during his walks.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/12/21/the-year-of-rto/