Next?

Has it only been a year?

Days before Christmas ’24, Justin Trudeau was prime minister. Skippy was about to become the next leader of the nation. Joe Biden was president. Real estate across Canada was worth more. You probably hadn’t heard of Bad Bunny. Maybe even Charlie Kirk. Nobody thought the Blue Jays would almost win it all. Trump was still a hazy, somewhat terrifying idea. Tariffs were a nothingburger. Chrystia Freeland was organizing her leadership campaign. This blog was ripping BC a new one for its anti-flip law and Toronto for ratcheting up its empty-house tax.

Well, since then more taxes have come down than swelled. The carbon tax is gone. The capital gains inclusion hike is history. Personal tax rates for lower-income people are lower. Mark Carney is prime minister. Poilievre lost the election, then his seat, then got re-elected, then suffered MP defections. Trump said we should be the 51st state and tariffed us. Stock markets swooned in April then soared. Boring B&D portfolios have scored two back-to-back years of double-digit gains. The Gaza war ended, sort of. The Venezuelan one started, kinda.

Well, it was the year of the American president, who scared the poop out of Canadians until Carney issued those two defining words. “Who cares?” That came in response to a reporter’s question about when the two leaders last talked. As the entire world, it seemed, was sucking up to Trump, our guy shrugged. And then he hooked up with cowgirl to plot a pipeline.

It’s been a ride. More to come.

This next year  could bring a heap more chaos south of us. The pivotal event will be mid-term elections in November and the potential there to dramatically flip the balance of power. Trump’s in trouble over the economy. He knows it. This could result in some dramatic stuff as he tries to hold back the sea of public opinion.

So, expect big pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates. A new boss will be announced soon – a Trump loyalist, of course. The president could also recklessly issue cheques to most Americans as a ‘tariff payment’ to help ease the affordability crisis. (He already promised $1,776 payments to 1.4 million military folk.) Of course, those tens of billions in cash will feed the inflation that has made day-to-day life tougher for people.

The US health care crisis is still a crisis. Putin is still bombing Ukraine. Canada’s trade agreement with the States is coming up for review. Our country is facing a one-year budget deficit of almost $80 billion, and the residential construction industry has collapsed.

But, hey, stocks are doing great. That’s expected to continue. The Toronto market is powered by golds and financials. The S&P is fat on gains by the Mag 7 and AI obsession. Trump pump-priming is expected to keep the US out of recession this coming year and in Canada the feds will be spending up a storm so we can lessen dependence on you-know-who.

Whazzit mean?

For people with wealth and liquid portfolios, more of the same. Profits crawling out of chaos and questionable long-term strategies. This is a year to stay invested and hopefully forget you were ever exposed to Erica Kirk.

In 2026 it’s safe to assume the wealth gap is going to grow wider. Also certain is that our ‘housing crisis’ will not be solved in any shape or form. Average prices will melt a little more, but there is no collapse coming – since that would plunge Canada into a consumer-led recession and cascading unemployment. Rest assured Big Daddy (and his pal, Tiff) ain’t gonna let that go down.

In short, in 2026 financial assets will likely go up. Real assets won’t follow. Canada will look immensely stable in contrast to the meth lab to the south. Do not trust Trump to be rational or presidential. Don’t expect a federal election here. Poilievre will keep his job, but he’s damaged goods. Don’t anticipate lower Canadian interest or mortgage rates. If you want a really cheap urban dog crate condo, this is your year.

Mostly, don’t worry. Your greatest foe in 2026 may well be emotion. We’ll be here every day to kick it out of you.

About the picture: “In response to your call, I’m sending you a recent shot of my Granddoggies,” writes Tania. “These kids are Buzby, Taco, and Coco. They’re not very happy about their dress-up session, but patiently tolerate it because they know that regardless of what is happening now, there is always something better on the horizon. Just ignore it and retain patience (something I keep learning from them). Merry Christmas to you Garth, your loved ones, and your team.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/12/22/next-12/