A year for the ages

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   By Guest Blogger Ryan Lewenza

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2025 was one for the books. President Trump’s historic political comeback – securing a second, non-consecutive term – marked a seismic shift in global affairs. Trump moved swiftly, issuing a flurry of executive orders with his signature tariff policies upending the global trading system that has existed for decades.

This pivotal U.S. election reverberated worldwide, with profound consequences. In Canada, Mark Carney seemingly came out of nowhere to beat the heavy odds favourite Pierre Poilieve in the last federal election. Canadians wanted a perceived steady hand in the face of the existential crisis coming from our neighbour and supposed ally.

Across Europe, leaders are waking up to a very different U.S. President and relationship with the U.S. The transatlantic alliance, forged in the post-WWII era to promote democracy and shared security, has reached a critical juncture as the U.S. adopts a more inward approach under MAGA priorities.

And in the Middle East, Trump is taking a more active approach by strong-arming Israel and Palestine into a fragile ceasefire, and the U.S. bombing Iranian nuclear facilities.

Against this backdrop of geopolitical turbulence and risk, financial markets defied gravity, delivering another robust year.

Today, let’s reflect on the year’s defining market trends and assess how our market outlook held up amid these extraordinary events.

From an equity perspective, international markets delivered the strongest performance in 2025, significantly outperforming the U.S. Germany’s DAX index rose 32% and Canada’s TSX was a standout this year up 30%. In Canada, banks and gold stocks did much of the heavy lifting, exactly as we predicted in our outlook.

From our 2025 outlook, “We see another year of gains but more modest relative to last year. Corporate profits will be key. We like resources and things that hurt when you drop them on your feet. Gold looks ok with all the money printing and central bank buying. Nat gas is potentially breaking out, and oil could bounce from the recent lows. Add in the banks, which should do better on the lower interest rates. We see more upside for the TSX this year.”

Emerging markets staged a strong comeback after years of relative weakness, with the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rising nearly 30%. This surge was fueled in part by a weakening U.S. dollar, which declined about 10% on the DXY index for the year, providing a tailwind for EM assets.

Looking at the US markets, they still did well but lagged their global peers. The S&P 500 is up around 15%, the Dow up 13% and Nasdaq up around 20%. What largely drove U.S. markets were the strong corporate profits which will be up around 12-13 yoy and continued strength in AI spending.

In our 2025 outlook, we accurately forecasted rising equity markets amid a transitioning bull cycle: “We see another year of market gains, but we anticipate a bumpier ride as we transition into the later stages of this bull market.” Volatility indeed spiked mid-year amid tariff-related uncertainties and policy shifts, including a notable spring correction, yet markets ultimately delivered positive returns as predicted.

Turning to fixed income and commodities, bonds generated positive total returns overall, with investment-grade corporates benefiting from the solid economy and narrowing credit spreads.

The standout story in commodities was gold and the broader metal sectors. Gold delivered an extraordinary rally of over 70%, reaching record highs above $4,500/oz, amid central bank buying, geopolitical tensions, and a softer dollar. Copper surged more than 40% with rising demand from EVs, renewables and AI.

Overall, 2025 proved a strong year for risk assets globally, with diversified exposure rewarding investors. Many of our investments calls and predictions hit the mark, so that’s one more thing to be thankful for. We’ll share our 2026 outlook in the new year. Happy holidays!

Performance of key markets and commodities

Source: Bloomberg, Turner Investments, as of: December 15, 2026

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT is a Partner and Portfolio Manager with Turner Investments, and a Senior Investment Advisor, Private Client Group, of Raymond James Ltd.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/12/27/a-year-for-the-ages/