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2025 Predictions Compo: results!

Wednesday, December 31, 2025 6:01

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This one was probably inviting too many qualitative answers for easy adjudication, but here goes. First, the factual aspects:

1. Name of first sitting MP defecting to Reform Ans: Danny Kruger

2. Date of Starmer’s first Cabinet reshuffle, as defined. One bonus point for each correctly-named departure or clear-cut demotion. Two bonus points for any complete change precisely identified (named outgoer and named replacement)

Ans: there hasn’t been one according to the definition, which excluded shuffles forced by resignation. There was one of that type on 5 Sept (Angela Rayner). It’s arguable, surely, that the lack of a reshuffle is yet another signifier of Starmer’s political weakness.

3. Anything you care to predict about the German Fed elections Ans: the vanilla results may be found here.

4. Composition of German government coalition by year-end Ans: CDU/CSU and SPD

5. Dollar / rouble exchange rate on Christmas Eve Ans: 78 – 79 range

6. FTSE100 on Christmas Eve Ans: 9,890

Results:

1. Nobody got this one. (Wonder if any Tory MPs guessed?)

2. Nobody technically on the money here either. Several of us mentioned Miliband and it is rumoured he was indeed for the chop, but dug in furiously – and here he still is. Mr Cowshed saw Rayner as perilously positioned, but not the cause of her exit. He also saw Lammy as highly vulnerable – an excellent call. SubOptimal got the timing right.

3 & 4. Mr Cowshed correctly had AfD second, and Caesar H had the first three in the correct ranking. CH and Sobers both called the coalition correctly.

5. Sobers a comfortable winner here with 87 (though on incorrect reasoning, viz a Trump-enforced peace deal): everyone else had it higher & most had it >100. The exact state of the Russian economy is a highly vexed issue, of course, with good data hard to obtain (FX, at least, is transparent). Nabiullina is under colossal pressure from Putin to reduce the interest rate to 10%, which she has resisted thus far: it’s at 16%, having blipped above 20%. If she succumbs, and/or quits or is fired, let’s revisit that FX rate again …

6. Nobody saw the FTSE rising! Nul points.

From the above, there’s a 3-way tie: with two ranking mentions each, it’s Anomalous Cowshed, Caesar Hēméra and Sobers ! Well done all.

* * * * *

There was also a bonus wildcard essay question : at headline level, what will be the state of play in Ukraine at year-end? We’ll return to that one in a few days: but next up – the 2026 compo ..

Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2025/12/2025-predictions-compo-results.html

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