Down she goes

Why are buyers waiting to make offers on properties that would have vanished in mere days two years ago?

Because they believe cheaper is coming. And so far, they’re right.

Take the detached home on the flank of tony Yorkville in DT Toronto. A rare offering with backyard and garage, a few steps to the subway, total reno. That $4 million initial listing is now $700,000 less. And no offers. Ditto for the big house around the corner from my shack. It’s been a busy Airbnb. Listed at just under $3 million, it’s now eight large less.

It’s happening far and wide, it seems.

This week came word that 53% of all the homes for sale in Trump’s America have lost value in the past year. This is big news during a time when interest rates have declined and the stock market (S&P 500) is up a heady 14%.

Across Canada, ditto.

Last month the average maple house, at $679,000, cost 3% less than last year and has shed more than 20% from early 2022 – when everyone was insane (except here). That means a large chunk of the Covid pricing has been eliminated, especially in Bunnypatch – where listings have stacked up like culled ostriches. In fact, last month set a new record nationally for listings, with a gain of more than 79,000.

But wait. It gets worse. This morning the builders, covered in shrapnel wounds, bleeding out and missing a limb, crawled in with their latest report.

We need desperate help, says the construction industry in southern Ontario, “to avert an industry-wide shutdown that threatens thousands of jobs and the housing supply pipeline for years to come.”

The numbers speak for themselves. In a market of seven million people, last month 570 new homes sold. Normally that would be more than 3,000. Sales have been at historic, never-before-OMG levels now for 13 months running. Last October was the lowest on record. This October was worse.

“October 2025 new home sales across the GTA sank below last year’s record low for October,” says Altus Group. “Some product is moving, but only under very specific conditions and price points, underscoring the need to bring costs back in line to get customers off the sidelines.”

Of those sales, 248 were condos – 88% below the 10-year average – while single-family homes numbered 322, which is 61% off the long-term norm. The remaining inventory of 21,241 units is enough to satisfy the market until the end of 2027, if not a single new unit were built. Never before have there been 23.5 months of available homes. Of those, by the way, 15,525 are condos.

Here is the official response from the industry’s boss:

“How many months of record-breaking lows must pass before we see governments taking concrete actions to reduce the costs added to new homes and support consumer confidence in order to avert an industry-wide shutdown that threatens thousands of jobs and the housing supply pipeline for years to come?” said Justin Sherwood, Chief Operating Officer at BILD. “The federal government’s approach, including HST relief only for first-time buyers, is far too limited. We welcome Premier Ford’s recent call for the HST exemption to apply to any purchaser of a new home, not only first-time buyers of homes up to $1 million. Broad action to reduce government added costs must be taken urgently.”

The industry may not be blaming the government directly, but it’s sure crying for a bail-out. However, while sales numbers are circling the drain as never before, there’s been no historic collapse in prices. The average GTA freshly-built condo is now $1,031,764, up 2.5% from a year ago. The benchmark price of a single-family home is $1,434,447, down 7% from this time last year.

What next?

Looks like the interest rate cuts in Canada are finished for a while. The lady at Home Depot’s paint desk told me yesterday the store is “bracing for a lean Christmas” this year. November MLS sales are expected to be dismal when released late next week. And the builders have stopped building – at least in the country’s major population centre.

In danger there is opportunity. Unless it’s just danger.

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Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/11/25/down-she-goes-5/