Get over it

What a lucky guy.

Fortunately I’ve had trusted employees rob me. The person I handed a plumb media platform to used it to attack me. I was soundly defeated after being elected. Twice. The sitting prime minister threw me out of his caucus. The governing council tossed me out of my party. The CBC trashed my broadcasting business. I’ve been diced and sliced on the floor of Parliament. The Globe called me a shill and promoter. I’ve been sued, and lost. I gave a key employee a company car (a Mercedes, even), and she stole it. The finance minister disgraced me in public. Woke people took my most prized possession.

But, I’m still married. My dog loves me. And I’ve grown a thick hide. It serves me well.

That brings us here. Lately a squad of self-aggrandized, aggrieved, indignant and plain pissed-off posters (mostly young, it seems) have taken their best shot at abuse. Garth’s a Lib. An out-of-touch boomer. He’s promoting FOMO. He lost his way.

Why?

Because I don’t lie. I eschew ideology. This blog follows the facts before it forms an opinion. Read it, or don’t – doesn’t matter to me. We don’t collect clicks or count eyeballs here to make money filling the white space with tacky ads for ED treatments and whole life policies. Just fresh, researched, credible content every day. Stay, and learn, or go and marinate in your own prejudices.

Now, to the Big Thing that gets the kiddos so agitated: why Canadian house prices will not crash.

First, affordability. Yeah, house prices are stupid and have been that way since the Credit Crisis – about precisely when this pathetic blog first crawled out of the ooze (2008). During this time government have taken an ever-larger role in supporting residential real estate. Now it accounts for a tenth of the entire economy (and double that with supporting sectors). It’s no coincidence we have RRSP downpayments, the FHSA, newbie-buyer tax credits, the PR capital gains tax exemption, multi-level government financing plans and billions in tax dollars directed at building a crapload of homes. Too big to fail.

Second, rates. Both the Bank of Canada and the Fed will start reducing them again next Wednesday. Two cuts this year. Maybe two next year, says CIBC Economics, for a drop of a full 1% from the current 2.75% CB policy rate. Do then math. It’s significant. Mortgages will be in the 3% range soon which is historically in the ditch. If things deteriorate in the States (see below) expect more.

Third, price. The cost of real estate across the country is about 20% less than in 2022. Some markets (Montreal) are seeing increases. Others (GTA, Calgary, Vancouver, Fraser Valley) are down year/year by up to 5%, atop the plop over the past three years. There is more to come between now and the spring – perhaps yet another 5%. Maybe more. We will then be very close to the most profound decline in memory, the 32% Toronto-area drubbing of the early 1990s. Will masses of buyers hold off waiting for a 40% haircut? Will they never forgive themselves?

Fourth, demographics. There are a lot of houseless young folks in the country now forming families, having (or wanting) kids and horny for real estate. There has not been a decent spring rutting season for almost three years. Sales have been a disaster, and demand has been building along with inventory. At some point the realization hits that home loans are cheap, houses cost a third less than they used to, the government is incentivizing buying and competition will likely return. That moment is probably not far off. Twenty weeks?

Fifth, numbers. It does not take a tsunami of buyers to move a market. Far from it. The reality is that average people can no longer afford average homes in major cities, so sales volumes may never return to the levels of a decade or two ago. But prices can still rise, especially for the most desirable real estate – single-family homes. Do not be fooled by the condo collapse – which is only getting started. That contagion is likely to be contained.

Six, the economy. It’s weakening, for obvious reasons. A bunch more people will lose their jobs and we may even slide into recession for six or nine months. But experience teaches that downturns never last and always bring opportunity. If you’re sideswiped by it, life sucks. But most people never are, and the astute ones do well. We are not headed for a crash, a depression, stagflation or annexation. After living through ten or a dozen of these, you will learn.

Seven, Trump is cooked. He cannot last. His polls are negative. America’s allies are enraged. The nation’s adversaries are emboldened. The economy is not working thanks to ridiculous tariffs and a whimsical White House. Trump won with the support of half of the 62% who voted. It was no landslide. He received 77,303,568 votes. Harris got 75,019,230. Him, 49.81%. Her 48.34%. (He campaigned for four years while she stumped for a 107 days.) While Trump’s base is willing to overlook his criminality, amorality, grifting, corruption, untruthfulness and authoritarianism, most will not. It will get ugly. But it will not end well for 47. And then, everything changes.

There. Let the moaning begin. And I still don’t care.

About the picture: “When you are 13 years old,” writes Della, “and you have a bucket on your head, you really need some comfort from a friend!”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/09/09/get-over-it-5/