The Arctic Wonderland: An Arena of Conflict or Cooperation?

Establishing facts on the ground as it melts is a tricky proposition. Has there been a similar scenario in history? 

With the scramble for Africa in the 19th century Germany arrived late on the scene and felt left out in the looting, which in part made it nurse a grudge against the other European powers, creating long-term discord and dissatisfaction.

Could we see something similar unfold or will the two dominant military powers in America and Russia come to an understanding?

Is the Arctic a buffet with the ice powers acting on a first come, first serve basis or will it be more orderly and gentlemanly? 

Will it be a new Wild West?

An excerpt from, “The Arctic: A Risk of Escalating Conflicts” by Wissal Werfelli, Trends Research & Advisory, October 14, 2024:

The Arctic is rapidly emerging as one of the most geopolitically significant regions in the 21st century. Climate Change and the melting of the ice floes in the Arctic Ocean have presented new opportunities, which has generated the issue of managing the polar region among the major international powers. The Arctic is once again becoming a major strategic problem due to two factors. The first is global warming which accelerates the prospects for exploitation of natural resources and of transit through sea lanes that shorten distances and push the riparian states to assert their interests and sovereignty over these spaces. The second is the global strategic competition between the United States (U.S.) and its allies, Russia and China: it antagonizes relationships and exacerbates disputes hitherto managed through cooperation. The Arctic has been barreling toward conflict for a long time. As one of the only physical meeting points between three great powers (the U.S., Russia, and China) it could be argued that it was inevitable to become a geopolitical conflict zone, especially considering the long-standing conflicts between these three countries.

. . .The route between Europe and Asia will become 40% shorter, resulting in additional economic and political interests on the part of not only the countries neighboring the Arctic directly but other European nations and China as well. The changes in the Arctic are at the same time creating new territories, already raising issues regarding sovereignty and thus military and security. Consequently, for several years now, the Munich Security Conference has been addressing the situation in that region. [6] Experts highlight the economic consequences of the rapid increase in temperatures, which sharpens commercial interests (development of mining resources, use of the “northern sea route”). Symbolically, in 2007, Russia planted its flag at the North Pole, which it claims before the competent United Nations (UN) commission as an extension of its continental shelf.

. . .Russia’s attachment to economic security in the Arctic is particularly seen as reducing the risk of conflict in the region. The Russian Arctic’s contribution to the Russian GDP is at least prior to the Russian war against Ukraine estimated between 12% and 15% and accounts for approximately 20% of its exports, of which oil is 80% and gas 20% of its total production, and the prospects of considerably more export of oil and gas are equally unparalleled to any of the other Arctic states. In this perspective, the Russian militarization of the Russian Arctic is as much about protecting and supporting its economic activities as it is simultaneously a militarization to increase and bolster its forward posture.

. . .Since Russia’s war in Ukraine in February 2022, the Arctic region has been the subject of numerous economic sanctions from Western countries, particularly the European Union (EU). The consequences for the Russian economy are immediate, with the suspension of several hydrocarbon plant development projects, notably the Arctic LNG2 project.

. . .China is a less visible player in the Arctic. Despite not being an Arctic nation but a self-proclaimed “near-Arctic state” with ambitious plans to establish itself as a “Polar Great Power” by 2035, China has sought to play a greater role in Arctic affairs and has become one of thirteen observer countries in the Arctic Council since 2013, a body formed to manage regional cooperation. It owns a special research station in the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard and is the largest foreign contributor to Russia’s projects. China’s focus on becoming a polar great power represents a fundamental reorientation a completely new way of looking at the world.

In 2018, China issued a white paper entitled “Chinese Arctic Policy’ to define its priorities in the region. It considers itself a “semi-Arctic” country and seeks to make the Arctic one of the regions through which it tries to build its influence and improve its image as a global power. This confirms the position of the Arctic as an inevitable strategic focus for global competition in the next stage.

. . .Last July, the Pentagon issued an updated version of its Arctic strategy, setting plans for joint military exercises with its allies to demonstrate combat readiness and operational capabilities. The strategy also highlighted intentions to work with partners, local industries, and Alaska Native tribes to “enhance integrated deterrence and increase shared security” in the region. “The Arctic region of the U.S. is critical to the defense of our homeland, the protection of U.S. national sovereignty and the preservation of our defense treaty commitments,” Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks said during a briefing at the Pentagon. “Our Arctic strategy will guide the department’s efforts to ensure that the Arctic remains a secure and stable region.” 

. . .The Navy released its Arctic Strategic Plan on 5 January 2021, during which it identified the challenges and opportunities existing in the region in the light of global competition. The plan also emphasized the need to strengthen the naval presence by integrating specific capabilities in the Navy and Marine Corps, enhancing cooperative partnerships with Arctic countries, and building a more capable Arctic Navy through modernization, training, and updated employment concepts, with the goal of improving homeland defense, promoting and preserving U.S. national interests in the region, and protecting sea lines of communication. 

Although NATO has historically lacked a formal position on the Arctic, after the start of the Ukraine War in 2022, the Arctic region has become a larger security focus for the alliance. With the rise of Finland and Sweden into NATO, the Alliance’s presence in the Arctic has increased significantly and has been accompanied by large-scale military exercises, such as Northern Response 2024, the largest NATO exercise in decades, which involved 13 NATO countries and 20,000 troops.