On the street

So what is it about Victoria?

That four-hour ferry ride from Vancouver (or spend 35 minutes on the Helijet) transports you from a buyer’s market to one where sellers strut. It’s also a real estate marketplace unlike almost any other in Canada. In short, they’re weird. It must be the latitude.

The story across Canada last month is one of falling prices, rising inventory, higher DOM (days-on-market), bad SNLRs (sales to new listings ratios) and elongating MOI (months of inventory). Tariffs, Trump anxiety, stalled interest rates and a weaker economy delivered a DOA spring real estate market in most of the country.

But not there. And it appears to be an outlier.

Last month sales rose by almost 5% (to 680). Active listings of close to four thousand actually fell 2% from the previous month. The benchmark price for a home was $1.338 million, up 3% from a year earlier. Ridiculous.

“Overall, I think the level of activity over the course of the spring surprised many, who were unsure how the real estate market would be impacted by economic and trade uncertainties,” says the chief realtor wizard. “But throughout 2025, we have seen positive indicators of a healthy and stable market, with consistent levels of listing inventory higher than we’ve seen in recent years along with reasonably flat and predictable pricing.”

Now, across the water, a different story.

In Vancouver last month sales were down 2%, and sit 14% below the long-term average. Still, that was less of a decline than in previous months, enough for the cartel to say it sees “early signs of recovery”.

There are more than 17,000 active listings, a big 20% jump over the year-ago number and a whopping 40% premium over the ten-year norm. The sales-to-active-listings ratio for detached homes sucks at just over 10%, which definitely puts the power into buyers’ hands.

Prices are down. The average price is off 2.7%. Detached homes dropped 3.6% in a year, to $1.974 million. In no discernible universe can the average family in that city hope to own the average single-family home. And yet the realtors keep pumping.

Says the local board’s kinda-economist-guy: “Although sales activity is now recovering, this healthy level of inventory is sufficient to keep home prices trending sideways over the short term as supply and demand remain relatively balanced. However, if the recovery in sales activity accelerates, these favorable conditions for home buyers may begin slowly slipping away, as inventory levels decline, and home sellers gain more bargaining power.”

Just what Vancouver needs. More powerful sellers who already sit on some of the largest (and tax-free) equity gains on the planet.

But wait. Over the mountains economic reality is settling like wildfire smoke upon the Calgary market.

Inventory has popped again, not back to pre-Covid levels at the same time as sales plop. The amount of inventory is a robust 88% higher than year-ago levels, while transactions have falled by 12% – to just over two thousand sales in July.

And what a bargain, compared to Kits or Oak Bay. The benchmark price in Cowtown has now retreated to $582,900, a further 4% drop from last summer. If you are looking for a buyer’s market, and a city in which families can actually afford houses, well, here she be.

How remarkable is this? Well, enough that the real estate board is taking pains to tell us that it’s no big deal. “Price declines are not occurring across all property types in all locations of the city, and even where there have been declines, it has not erased all the gains made over the past several years,” says the cartel economist. “The steepest price declines have occurred for apartment and row style homes, mostly in the North East and North districts, which coincides with significant gains in new supply.”

Despite that assurance, sellers are in a meat grinder. Active listings have shot ahead 66% in the past year and it is taking 54% longer to flog a property.

What does this tell us?

That all real estate is local. Markets have their own dynamics and momentum. Perceptions are crucial. So when the identical economic conditions exist in Calgary and Victoria, yet one market is stagnating and swampy while the other perky and pricey, it underscores the reality of emotion. People buy homes and spend stupid amounts of money, while absorbing numbing levels of debt, when they’re confident prices will increase. Conversely, we retreat in falling markets, even when prices are fading, choice is expanding and opportunity at hand.

There is only one conclusion. Buy real estate if you really need it and can afford it without gutting your family finances or future. Or, of course, you can move.

About the picture: “My daughter took this picture one day as the skies opened up and the sun shone down on my dog, Chip,” writes Ann. “He lives a charmed life in rent-free accommodations on a  lifetime lease, doted on by two servants who bring unlimited food and belly rubs. He credits reading your blog every day for his good fortune.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/08/05/on-the-street/