The missing part RE: Iran— no rational discussion about costs

If the Land of the Free wasn’t already divided heavily along ideological lines, it is even more so after the US military bombings in Iran over the weekend.

Even on the political right, which would ordinarily be unified over a US military engagement, there seem to be two distinct camps.

On the one hand, there are those who hold the view that America doesn’t need more foreign entanglements.

Tucker Carlson summed up this side when he told Ted Cruz in a fiery interview that “we should be very careful about entering into more foreign wars that don’t help us when our country is dying.”

On the other side are those who who see a clear and obvious benefit in preventing one of America’s harshest adversaries from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Personally I believe both sides are partially right.

I believe it’s self-evident that the Iranian government despises the United States and the West; and they have a history of direct action against Americans, and/or funding terrorist groups who cut off US citizens’ heads on YouTube.

And I can easily understand why the President of the United States wants to ensure these people cannot manufacture nuclear weapons.

I also imagine most of the world agrees with him. Publicly they may disagree and put out strongly worded statements of condemnation.

But think about it— Russia has a long history of conflict against its Muslim minority. China has literally imprisoned its Muslim minority. Do either of these countries honestly want Iran— an aggressive Islamic dictatorship that supports radical Muslim terrorist organizations— to have a nuclear weapon?

It wouldn’t take a whole lot for Iran to arm one of those terror groups with a nuke and take out half of Beijing or Moscow in an act of vengeance.

At the same time, I know from first hand experience during my time in the military that another absurdly expensive foreign entanglement is just a terrible idea. The occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan nearly bankrupted America.

What I feel is distinctly lacking from the conversation, however, is rational discussion over costs and benefits.

I would love to see leaders articulate national priorities where they assess the benefits. Then  determine how much they’re willing to invest to yield those benefits. And then actually allocate responsibly for the costs in their budget.

This just almost never happens.

My analysis, with a lot of help from Grok, is that a conservative projection of munitions costs, aircraft fuel costs, naval deployment, and even US assistance for Israeli air defense, comes to around $1 billion.

And that would leave a bit of extra money on the table for follow-up and contingency operations.

Is $1 billion a reasonable cost to ensure Iran doesn’t gain nuclear capabilities?

I think so—simply because the cost of Iran obtaining nukes and potentially blowing up a major American city could easily run into the trillions. So neutralizing a multi-trillion dollar threat for $1 billion feels like a good deal.

But I’m not sure that’s the way they’re approaching it.

For example, I noticed during the President’s remarks on Saturday night that he was flanked by Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth.

The Treasury Secretary was notably absent. And for a government that should be taking deficits seriously, there needs to be a discussion about the costs its willing to bear, and—more importantly—how are they going to pay for it?

Was Treasury even consulted? Did someone ask, “How are we going to pay for this?” to which Treasury (or DOGE) might respond, “Oh, easy, we’ll cut $1 billion from X, Y, and Z idiotic programs that clearly provide less benefit to America than taking out Iranian nukes.”

I’m not adamantly opposed or in favor of either scenario. I just want my government to do good deals. I want them to rationally address costs and benefits, risks and rewards, and then make an informed decision that balances national priorities.

America should be able to walk and chew gum, to take out a credible nuclear threat AND be able to cut the deficit (and slash regulations).

It’s incredible to me how much ink has been spilled, how much Internet bandwidth has been wasted, on America’s outrage of the week— the latest being “No Kings Day” just nine days ago.

We’ve been subjected to Leftist idiots who glue themselves to the pavement in the name of climate change. Endless debates about who gets to use which bathroom. And ongoing Gaza protests by people who don’t even know which river or which sea they’re chanting about.

We’ve had outrage over the Supreme Court’s ruling on Roe v. Wade (after which abortions in the US actually increased!). Outrage over kneeling at NFL games. Outrage over ‘threats to democracy’. And now there will be outrage over the President’s use of the War Powers Act.

Sure, some of those issues are important.

But what’s REALLY important for every single person living in America, plus billions of people around the world who depend on the US dollar in some capacity, is a looming US fiscal crisis.

Endless irresponsible spending has grown the debt to over $36 trillion, with interest payments already topping $1.1 trillion per year— higher than the defense budget.

The Federal Reserve has lost its ability to control interest rates, and it’s becoming more expensive for the government to finance the debt.

Last week we explained how this all comes to a head within eight years once Social Security runs out of money in 2033.

By then, the US government could likely be spending 40% of all tax revenue just to pay interest on the debt. And at the exact same time, tens of millions of Americans will see their retirement benefits immediately and permanently cut by nearly 25% due to Social Security’s insolvency.

The government’s only ‘solution’ will be for the Federal Reserve to step in and ‘print’ trillions of dollars to bail out the Treasury Department (and Social Security), resulting in pretty catastrophic inflation.

And yet there is zero-outrage.

No one is in the streets engaged in “mostly peaceful protests” over the deficit, or demanding sound currency financial responsibility from the government.

In fact, it’s the opposite. People are actually outraged that Elon Musk tried to cut the deficit by rooting out fraud, waste, and abuse… so outraged, in fact, that they started blowing up Tesla dealerships. How dare he try to cut the deficit!

A rational, cost/benefit analysis is absent at every level of decision making in the US.

And if that doesn’t change, there is no reason to believe the US can solve its many long-term problems.Where’s the outrage in our professionally-outraged society?

Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/the-missing-part-re-iran-no-rational-discussion-about-costs-153023/