S&P 500 Retreats on Geopolitical Turmoil

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) was on track for a winning week. Until Friday, 13 June 2025, when geopolitical events took over the headlines for market moving news.

The outbreak of military action by Israel to decapitate Iran’s military and nuclear weapons program in the Middle East was the catalyst for reversal, which was followed up by Iran’s ballistic missile counterattack. But despite the dramatic events, their effect on the U.S. stock market was not significant. The S&P 500 lost 1.13% from Thursday’s close, putting the index at 5,976.97. The S&P 500 closed the week down about 0.4% from the preceding week.

The daily change puts the day’s decline on par with the typical day-to-day percentage change recorded by the S&P 500 as measured by its standard deviation since January 1950. Which is to say that if you didn’t know anything about the geopolitical turmoil and its effect on investor reactions from the index’ futures and intraday trading, you wouldn’t necessarily think anything unusual was afoot. It looks like typical day-to-day noise.

In a statistical sense, it takes at least a two percentage point change from the previous day’s change for the market action to even qualify as interesting.

What was more interesting however is the day’s market action pushed the trajectory of the S&P 500 down the lower end of the expected range the alternative futures chart’s projected range for where the index would be assuming investors are focusing their forward looking attention on 2025-Q4. The latest update of the chart shows that relative position:

Although it’s only encompassed one day of trading, the geopolitical events in the Middle East do have the potential to contribute something more than noise to how U.S. stock prices behave. One thing to pay close attention to is oil prices, which jumped on the news and which can affect a significant portion of the U.S. stock market.

Outside the geopolitical news, there were few market moving headlines to affect the direction of stock prices, and that includes the announcement of a deal between the U.S. and China on tariffs along with lower than expected inflation data. Here are the headlines we noted during the week that was.

Monday, 9 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices steady ahead of US-China trade talks
• US ocean container imports tumble in May as China tariffs take hold
• Aluminium producers in the US win from Trump’s tariffs
• US-China trade talks to resume for a second day

Fed minions get data that says Americans are expecting lower inflation:

• US inflation expectations ease in May, New York Fed survey shows

• Inflation Expectations Tumble As Latest NY Fed Survey Suggests Fed Late To Cut
• Inflation Is Back to Normal

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s exports slow, deflation deepens as tariffs bite
• China’s factory-gate deflation worst in 22 months as economic headwinds mount
• China’s car sales rise in May, but price wars cloud outlook
• China’s rare earth exports jump 23% in May despite export curbs

BOJ minions discover Japan’s GDP didn’t shrink as much as previously reported:

• Japan’s first-quarter GDP contraction narrows on consumption improvement, revised figure shows

ECB minions disappointed they may have to stop cutting Eurozone interest rates, acknowledge they’re coupled to the Fed:

• ECB is ‘nearly done’ with cuts if forecasts hold, Vujcic says
• ECB’s Schnabel sees no lasting decoupling from Fed

Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow finished trading muted as inflation data now looms

• S&P 500 ends slightly up; traders watch US-China trade talks

Tuesday, 10 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil prices hold near 7-week high as market waits for news from US-China trade talks

Fed minions expected to not change interest rates until September 2025:

• Fed to keep rates on hold at least until September as inflation risks linger

Bigger trouble developing in China:

• Price wars grip China as deflation deepens – $30 for a luxury Coach bag?
• Chinese state media calls for crackdown on ‘zero-mileage used cars’

BOJ minions hear good news about inflation, and also hear Japanese politicians want them to lower their inflation target:

• Japan wholesale inflation slows, taking pressure off BOJ
• Japan’s largest opposition calls for lowering BOJ’s inflation target

ECB minions claim they’ll be agile in adapting policy, say Eurozone governments need to make trade deals:

• ECB will be as “agile” as needed in line with data flow- Villeroy
• Trade war resolution may require concessions from all, ECB’s Lagarde says

Wall Street ends higher, less than 2% away from record close

• Wall Street ends higher as investors track US-China trade talks

Wednesday, 11 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US consumer prices rise moderately in May

• May CPI Review: Inflation Continues To Defy Tariffs
• Trump says Fed should lower rates by ‘one full point’

US-China trade deal is ‘done,’ Trump says

• US, China reach deal to ease export curbs, keep tariff truce alive
• Trump tariffs may remain in effect while appeals proceed, US appeals court rules

Oil prices climb to 2-month high on US-China trade deal, worries about Iran supply

Fed minions expected to cut interest rates in September 2025:

• Fed seen on track to start cutting rates by September

• Hopes for Fed rate cuts keep US Treasury yield views low ahead of supply deluge: Reuters poll

Trump says Fed should lower rates by ‘one full point’

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• As US trade truce gets back on track, some Chinese exporters are ‘slowly dying’
• Chinese automakers pledge to make payments to suppliers within 60 days
• China Taps $1.5 Trillion Fund To Offer Cheap Mortgages, Boost Housing Demand

BOJ minions likely to hold off on more rate hikes until 2026, worry about tariff impact:

• BOJ to postpone rate hike to Q1 next year, tiny majority of economists say: Reuters poll
• Japan remains cautious on tariff impact in June econ report

Wall Street snaps three-day win streak amid lack of details on China trade deal

• S&P 500 ends lower; traders focus on Middle East tension and await details on trade deal

Thursday, 12 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US producer prices rebound less than expected in May

• PPI Shows Companies Eating Tariff Costs, Bloomberg Finds

Oil prices drop as traders gauge Middle East tensions

Fed minions expected to deliver rate cuts after inflation comes in lower than expected, can expect pressure from the White House:

• Fed seen on track to resume rate cuts after inflation, job market data

• Fed rate cut expectations rise on soft inflation data, signs of labor market cooling

Trump says he won’t fire Fed’s Powell but ‘may have to force something’ on rates

BOJ minions thinking about putting rate hike ambitions on hold:

• US tariffs may have ended BOJ’s rate-hike cycle, former policymaker says

ECB minions counting on Germany to stop dragging Eurozone economy down, say their monetary policy is in a ‘good place’, want to cooperate with China:

• Germany to return to growth after two years of contraction, economists predict
• ECB monetary policy is in a ‘good place’ now, says ECB’s Schnabel
• China eyes stronger cooperation with ECB amid global trade tensions

S&P ends higher, bonds rally after soft PPI and strong Treasury auction

• Yields slide as traders snap up bonds after more soft inflation data
• S&P 500 ends higher as Oracle reignites AI rally; Boeing drops

• Oracle pops as Q4 results top estimates, offers outlook for fiscal 2026
• Boeing’s stock falls as Air India crash raises more safety questions

Friday, 13 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Israel launches strikes against Iran nuclear, military sites
• Oil settles up 7% as Israel, Iran trade air strikes

• OPEC+ would struggle to cover major Iranian oil supply disruption
• Big disruption to oil supply unlikely after Israel’s attack on Iran, say analysts

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China solar industry to address overcapacity challenge but turnaround far off, experts say

Possible trade deal with US developing in Japan:

• Japan and US explored possibility of trade deal, Japan trade negotiator says

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Euro zone industry, trade take big hits in April amid tariff turmoil

Dow tumbles nearly 800 points, S&P sheds over 1% as Israel-Iran conflict escalates

• Wall St ends sharply lower as Iran retaliates against Israel attack

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool continues to project the Fed will not cut the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, at which time, it will cut rates by a quarter percent to a target range of 4.00-4.25%. There was also no change in the longer run forecast, as the FedWatch Tool anticipates the Fed will continue reducing U.S. interest rates at twelve-week intervals with quarter point cuts coming on 10 December (2025-Q4) and 18 March (2026-Q1).

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 held steady at +3.8%.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull and bear who are reacting to news of geopolitical events”. We tweaked the word “geopolitical” in the headline to overcome how it was originally spelled.