New Home Sales Showing Signs of Reversing Downtrend
The total market capitalization of new homes sold in the United States dipped slightly in April 2025. Political Calculations initial estimate of the time-shifted trailing twelve month average of the total value of new homes sold during the month is $28.22 billion.
This figure is down just 0.4% from our revised estimate of $28.36 billion in new homes sales in March 2025. The March 2025 data was revised upward from the initial estimate of $27.87 billion we reported last month.
The following charts present the U.S. new home market capitalization, the number of new home sales, and their sale prices as measured by their time-shifted, trailing twelve month averages from January 1976 through April 2025. The trends they show suggest the new home market is starting to reverse its general downtrend since July 2024.
Flattening new home sales trend:
Flattening trend for home prices:
The transition from a falling to a flat trendline in the trailing twelve month averages comes as the reported number of new home sales surged in April 2025. Seeking Alpha summarized April 2025′s underlying monthly data that fed into our overall estimate of the market cap for new homes:
U.S. new home sales jumped 10.9% M/M to 743K in April, rising from 724K in March and surging past the 700K consensus estimate, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Friday. The increased sales rate led to an increase in the median sales price and a reduction in inventory.
On a Y/Y basis, new home sales rose 3.3%.
The median sales price of new houses was $407.2K, up 0.8% from March’s $403.7K and below April 2024′s price of $415.3K. The average sales price of new houses, though, was $518.4K, 3.7% higher than the previous month and 3.6% above April 2024′s level.
If the numbers hold, April 2025′s new home sales will be the highest recorded since February 2022. New home sales data is subject to frequent revisions before being finalized, where the size of revisions can be significant.
References
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025.
U.S. Census Bureau. New Residential Sales Historical Data. Median and Average Sale Price of Houses Sold. [Excel Spreadsheet]. Accessed 23 May 2025.
Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/05/new-home-sales-showing-signs-of.html
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