The willies

Two days ago we talked about the silent spring which may soon envelop the country’s housing market. Sales down. Prices sliding sideways. Inventory popping. Uncertainty and anxiety rising. And every day the geopolitical situation seems to darken. Now the US and Ukraine are fighting. Tariffs coming. And, man, the Big Game is tonight. Stress!

Well, the real estate tensions are everywhere.

“On the heels of this week’s post regarding the growing imbalance between listings and sales, thought you’d find the data below for West and North Vancouver of interest,” writes Hans Knapp, “in particular the two YEARS worth of inventory in West Vancouver….”

And he’s right.

In West Vancouver, for example, there have been just 16 sales so far this year, while 388 properties are available. That’s two years’ worth of listings to work through. Ironically, though, the median prices has increased by two hundred grand, to just over $3 million. In North Van, with 185 current listings, sales in 2025 of just are just over forty so far, indicating a more balanced hood. But, of course, these are ‘starter’ houses in YVR, with a median price of merely $2.2 million.

In the real world (the rest of Canada), the winter freeze continues with sellers anxious and buyers cautious. People just don’t know what to expect any more.

It would seem interest rate cuts are shuddering to an end, and most economists now figure the Bank of Canada will hit the pause button in March. With the GST holiday over, inflation is likely to increase. Tariff Man ssays our steel and aluminum will be taxed going south in mid-March. That will hurt the economy. If general 25% anti-Canada duties hit in two weeks, we will see layoffs and recession.

Meanwhile Trump is playing footsie with Putin, throwing Zelensky under the bus, weakening NATO, ordering domestic military cuts, gutting the size and scope of the US government, ending American foreign aid, letting his criminal supporters out of prison and indicating he is, for all intents and purposes, above the law. It’s astonishing. The reversal in foreign policy of the Republican Party – now mute, silenced, eunuched and diminished by the president – is historic.

For us? It’s a more dangerous world. We send men and machines to put out fires in LA. But would Trump send troops to defend Nunavut from a Russian incursion? It’s a worthy question. The guy is out of control.

So no wonder the house-buying in Canada’s major cities has cooled, that sellers believe this may be the time to exit, listings are stacking up and the central bank is circling the wagons. This may be a poor time to walk into six or seven figures of fresh debt when we’re blind to where the economy, job prospects, inflation, the dollar or interest rates may be in six or twelve months.

CREA says sales dropped in December. Real estate boards report the same for last month. Across Canada listings jumped 12% in January, which is weird for that month of the year. It was “the largest seasonally adjusted monthly increase in new supply on record going back to the late 1980s,” according to the industry. “The timing of that change in demand leaves little doubt as to the cause — uncertainty around tariffs. Together with higher supply, this means markets that had been steadily tightening up since last fall are now suddenly in a softer pricing situation again, particularly in British Columbia and Ontario.”

In other words, prices will fall. They have to, or sales will continue to fade away, unsold properties accumulate and people who really need to unload will suffer. It’s just a matter of time now – and the moments of truth will come in a few days. CREA boss James Maybe says tariffs are “a major dark cloud on the horizon.” And completely unjustified.

So, did you see this…

The American president posted that picture of himself on social media, created by his own communications team. “LONG LIVE THE KING”, he wrote in a post bragging that he had just stopped New York City from collecting a toll in order to ease road congestion. From traffic jams to jamming Europe, to punting Gazans to punishing Canada and supporting dictators while trading away a sovereign nation and preventing US scientists from talking to ours about flu vaccines and water quality – he rules it all.

Absolute power corrupts absolutely. He is on the path.

Go Canada.

About the picture: “I’ve been reading your books and blog since ~ 1996 – it helped me decide if student loans and practice debts (dental school and dental practice) would be a good idea,” writes Yvette. “Also sold my practice in August 2008, perfect timing. Hers a few pictures of Holly, who through it all, manages to keep laughing. I live, work and play on the unceded territory of the K’omoks Indigenous Nation. We are not on treaty land. I respect the stewardship the First Nations have shown this land of plenty, and honour the principles of self-determination and reparations. 

tuwa akʷs χoχoɬ ʔa xʷ yiχmɛtɛt (ʔa) kʷʊms hɛhaw tʊms gɩǰɛ
– “Care takers of the ‘land of plenty’ since time immemorial”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/02/20/the-willies/